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Here’s How Russia’s Covert War Could Undermine its Own Goals

There’s historical precedent for Moscow to worry.

Here’s How Russia’s Covert War Could Undermine its Own Goals

The Oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland on January 7, 2025. The Swedish navy said on January 7, it had recovered from the Baltic Sea the anchor of an oil tanker suspected of belonging to Russia's 'shadow fleet' and damaging four underwater telecom cables and one power cable on December 25.

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Photo by ANTTI AIMO-KOIVISTO/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images

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EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION — The July 2025 sanctioning and indictment by the United Kingdom of three units and 18 individuals affiliated with the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces - the GRU - highlighted clandestine sabotage and cyber operations by that service against communications lines and the Western transport and supply infrastructure critical to Ukraine’s war effort. "GRU spies,” British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said, “are running a campaign to destabilize Europe, undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and threaten the safety of British citizens."

In fact, GRU sabotage operations against targets in non-belligerent nations pre-date the current conflict and reflect Moscow’s use of sabotage as a tool of statecraft in both war and peace dating back to the Soviet era. During the Cold War, Soviet and Warsaw Pact planners, led by the KGB and GRU, created detailed lists of Western targets —bridges, power plants, rail hubs, fuel depots, pipelines, and communication lines. These operations emphasized covert acts made to look like accidents, aiming to demoralize adversaries and create political discord within the western alliance. To facilitate such operations, the GRU placed highly trained deep-cover “illegals” in target countries.

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