EXPERT PERSPECTIVES — In the hours after Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election, we turned to our network of experts for reflections on the news, and what it may portend for national and global security issues.
Not surprisingly, given the diversity of views and backgrounds across the Cipher Brief network, we heard a range of perspectives: reflections on policy towards China, Russia, Ukraine, Iran and the broader Middle East; pleas for greater attention to defense industrial policy, cyber security, and longstanding U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia; and beyond national security policies, several experts stressed the importance of selecting a strong national security team – a particular challenge given how many former national security officials had been openly critical of Trump during the campaign.
THE EXPERTS
Trump is inheriting a dangerous world. With real wars going on in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and real threats from China, North Korea and Iran, he is going to need an experienced national security team. He cannot walk away from Ukraine, in spite of some of his comments he’s made. He will need to come to the reality that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is a thug and deal with him harshly. That is all Putin knows.
A strong message supporting Israel early will send a signal to Tehran. This will be an interesting four years on the foreign policy side and with the right tough team in place, Trump can have a place in history.
The President-elect should prioritize several interconnected challenges that define today's complex security landscape. First among these is strengthening allied cohesion, particularly in NATO and across the Indo-Pacific, while simultaneously reimagining our approach to strategic competition with China in a way that better leverages America’s many strengths.
Equally pressing is the need to further strengthen America's digital and cyber resilience through improved public-private partnerships and more robust international deterrence frameworks. A connected effort would be the creation of a comprehensive U.S. national digital strategy, to counter China’s efforts to build a future global digital ecosystem in their own authoritarian image. Nothing less than global freedom is on the line.
a) He needs to make clear that we are going to rev up American oil and gas production and exports. This will boost the American economy and work to undermine Iran and Russia.
b) He needs to tell Iran that they need to stand down; no more attacks by their proxies - the Houthis, Hamas, or Hezbollah - on Israel or American interests, or else they will face direct consequences from the United States.
c) He needs to tell Putin to end his war on Ukraine by January 20, or we will let Ukraine borrow as much money as they need to buy American defense products with no limits on type or use.
d) These steps are all essential to drive home the message to Beijing that it is a different game now, and there are no cost-free moves against American interests.
e) He definitely needs to pick a national security team that is both experienced and comfortable with the exercise of American power. For the last three years we have been afraid of escalation. We need our adversaries to fear escalation instead.
Almost every president comes into office with the intention of prioritizing a domestic agenda, only to find national security and foreign affairs have a way of dominating their schedule. The world will be looking for proactive, rather than reactive, signals of the leadership role we will take in a new administration. The selection of a national security team is one of the first concrete signals the rest of the world will be able to see. To my mind, their Washington pedigree is much less important than the creativity they will need to tackle the ever increasingly complex problems they will face.
On personnel, Trump can draw on the team at NSC and State that stuck with him till the end, plus Senators, perhaps (Lindsey) Graham or (Tom) Cotton. There may be some surprises or crazies, but I worked with this team and they are competent. I am more worried about Defense and Intelligence picks. Fairly or not, he sees the career people there as not only opposed to him (that’s “normal” across national security bureaucracy) but willing to undercut him. So picks for leadership might be based more on loyalty and disdain than competence and experience. Watch that.
Trump’s biggest problem will be to understand that since 2020, an unholy coalition to overthrow the U.S. led order has coalesced, and to some degree it’s Russia, not China, that is setting the terms of the competition — in a brutal way that others, especially China, likely are uncomfortable with. This means he will have to confront Russia beginning with Ukraine more than he might now understand.
In the Middle East, no big change, as Biden's major muscle movements did not differ greatly from Trump. Expect more consistent implementation of Iran sanctions but no warmongering with Tehran, behind fulsome support publicly for Israel; pressure to wind up Gaza and Lebanon conflicts which represent now-declining military-economic-diplomatic return on heavy Israeli investment; and strong efforts to expand the Abraham Accords.
The president needs an experienced and thoughtful national security team he trusts, that will provide him with nonpartisan intelligence that will help him to understand and to sort out these issues. At the end of the day, the Intelligence Community (IC) are not policy makers. Rather, they provide the president with the best information they can find so that the president and his team can make good decisions. As such, who he picks for key roles is very important. Not only should they be professionals who know what they are doing, but they also need to be men and women who have the president’s trust. The established order in the IC brings a vast amount of experience and professionalism to the equation, and they must be an important part of the national security team moving forward.
Our world may well be on the precipice of the end of the current long-wave geopolitical cycle. These cycles last longer than a single human life, and usually end catastrophically due to some combination of a rising power (allied with lesser powers); a weakening existing power suffering from deepening political divisions and that overextends itself economically and militarily; fading memories over successive generations of the extreme violence of cycle-ending events; and politicians with little grounding in history who blindly stumble into crisis.
Avoiding a disastrous conclusion of this cycle will require clear understanding of the many-layered complexities of our world, exceptionally nuanced statesmanship, a thoroughgoing sense for where true U.S. national interests lie, and the closest possible collaboration with allies and partners.
We cannot pull our support for the Ukrainians. We need to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that there's some willingness for dialogue, but on our terms, not his, and that those terms need to be coordinated closely with the Ukrainians because we should not let the Russians come between us and Kyiv. In the Middle East, obviously in places like Lebanon and Gaza, we need a resolution to that conflict. We need to send a strong message to Iran that we are not going to tolerate their behavior. There's going to be no appeasement. So, I hope that we go back to the maximum pressure campaign.
The president also needs to pay attention to our relationship with Ankara. Turkey is a strategically important country for the United States. It has the second-largest standing army in NATO, geographically is in an extremely important region and is a traditional ally which is sometimes difficult to deal with, but it's in our best interest to keep them on our side. My understanding is that many Turks are happy with the results of this election. We should capitalize on that.
And we absolutely need to start countering the Chinese and the Russians in Africa, not just with words or with statements, but with action and with financing for projects. We need to offer concrete assistance to the African nations that are willing to work with us and that are probably looking for our help. I think many Africans are becoming frustrated with the Chinese and the Russians, so this is a great opportunity.
The principal objective of the incoming Administration must be to reverse the perception of American weakness and decline on the world stage. To do so, the U.S. must restore deterrence in the face of the increasingly aggressive moves by our adversaries. This will require a commitment to restoring our country’s military capabilities with a focus both on rebuilding the present force and ensuring it has the weapons, ships and munitions needed to fight today; as well as the cutting-edge weaponry and technology needed to prosecute the coming war against China.
The very fact of Trump’s return to power will – because of his unpredictable nature – help with this. In short, he will be able to instill uncertainty and a degree of fear in our adversaries that is not currently present.
The second objective of the new Administration must be to deal with the regional crises now confronting the U.S.
In Ukraine, where we are seeing a slow, steady Russian advance that cannot end well for Kyiv, Trump should push for an end to the war that ensures Ukraine’s security and sovereignty. This will, of course, require concessions to Russia to achieve. But there seems no other choice given the terrible arithmetic favoring Russian that is currently at play. Under no circumstances – absent the consent of Ukraine – should the U.S. legally recognize any Ukrainian territory seized by Moscow as being Russian territory.
In the Near East, the new Administration must work to build up a military presence and regional alliances that engender a considerable degree of uncertainty in Xi’s mind regarding the prospects for a Chinese seizure of Taiwan be it, as is most likely, with the imposition of quarantine around the island or, in extremis, an effort by Beijing to invade the island.
In the Middle East, the new Administration should renew and strengthen America’s ties to Israel; recommit itself to expanding the countries engaged under the Abraham Accords; re-impose strict sanctions on Iran; and consider a regime-change strategy vis-a-vis the government in Tehran.
Foreign policy and immigration are two issues that the incoming President should focus on. With the ongoing conflicts, strengthening allied partnerships and having a strong national security team will be paramount. Additionally, with the evolving terror threat and the potential for a coordinated terror attack like what we saw at the Russia concert hall [in March], the team will need to focus on intelligence and border issues – who has or is planning to enter the U.S., and do they have connections to ISIS or other foreign terrorist organizations.
In order for the United States to maintain its national security capabilities and military ability, we must rebuild our industrial capacity to manufacture at scale in the United States. Over the past several decades, we have underinvested in our ability to build what we need to defend ourselves and no longer have the ability to manufacture at scale. As Commander-in-Chief, it will be critical that President Trump direct the Department of Defense to prioritize the rebuilding of critical defense manufacturing capabilities and our vital supply chains necessary to defending our country. We need experienced senior executives in the DoD who know how to build and manufacture at the speed of innovation rather than the slow pace of bureaucracy.
Since 1945, America's strength has come through supportive relationships with like-minded nations. We called the Americans that achieved that the “greatest generation.” Today, Russia and China are working to dethrone our historic national accomplishments by dragging down our reputation in the rest of the world. They seek advantage through coercive diplomacy, and they are fighting to lead a new global order at our expense. With American innovation power, we have the opportunity to lead the globe in a new technological transformation. A new greatest generation of American innovators, pioneers, and global leaders are ready for launch.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief.
