BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – In the spring of 2022, Ukraine beat back a Russian assault on the nation’s capital and punished the invaders on many fronts. Two years later, the country faces stark realities on multiple fronts: Russia is pounding the country’s infrastructure while laying the groundwork for a fresh offensive; Ukraine is preparing what some have called a “spring defensive,” its offensive capability limited to asymmetric warfare against targets in southern Russia and Russian-held Crimea; and hanging over the battlefield is the holdup of U.S. military aid, which has hampered Ukrainian air defenses and dwindled its stocks of ammunition. And while the stakes for Ukraine remain existential, a growing chorus of experts now says the stakes are profound for the U.S. and Europe as well.
This was the background for a high-level Cipher Brief delegation that traveled to Ukraine last week – led by former U.S. commander and director of the Central Intelligence Agency General David Petraeus and including a roster of other Cipher Brief experts from the military and intelligence sectors. The group held meetings with top officials in Ukraine–from the government, the military, the parliament and the private sector–to gain a better understanding of the current state of the war, the mood in Ukraine, what may loom in the weeks and months ahead, and the stakes for the nation, the region and the world.
In this latest dispatch from Kyiv, four members of the delegation – former senior CIA Officers Ralph Goff, Glenn Corn, and Paul Kolbe, and Vice Admiral Mike LeFever (Ret.), former Director of Strategic Operational Planning at the National Counterterrorism Center – offer their reflections on the visit. Among the takeaways: a perception that resolve among Ukrainian leaders is undiminished, despite the setbacks; that 2024 will be ”a defensive year” for Ukraine; and that what happens in Ukraine will have major ramifications for all of Europe, the U.S. and China.
THE CONTEXT
- Russia continues assaults along the eastern front lines in Ukraine and is believed to be preparing a new offensive in the northeast.
- Ukrainian forces are building trenches and fortifications to stop Russian troops in what some have termed a “spring defensive.”
- Russia continues to carry out regular attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
- Ukraine lowered the conscription age of Ukrainian men from 27 to 25 to bolster its military and allow for the rotation of troops who have been fighting on the frontlines for two years.
- Ukraine has launched several long-range drone strikes into Russia, targeting Russian military infrastructure and oil refineries.
- Ukraine has had significant success targeting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and this week Ukraine’s military intelligence also claimed to have set a Russian missile ship on fire in the Baltic Sea.
- Europe is boosting military assistance to Ukraine as a U.S. aid package languishes in Congress.
THE EXPERTS
No time to read? Watch the video dispatches from Kyiv on The Cipher Brief's Digital Channel.
These interviews have been lightly edited for clarity.
Key takeaways
Goff: On a nice sunny spring day here in Kyiv, the war seems a long way away, but you can see it and you can feel it. You see it in the people's faces. You feel it in the people you talk with. Talking to our Ukrainian government colleagues, there's a much greater feeling of disappointment in the West, a much greater feeling of disappointment in the United States in particular. More pessimism, but not defeatism. On the other hand, the same attitude of standing up to Russian aggression is not diminished, even though the odds look longer, and the losses have been greater. For our interlocutors here, not only are they doubling down in the spirit of continuing war, but they're doubling down in the spirit of letting the rest of the world know what we're in for if they lose here.
LeFever: What comes to mind is how important the aid is, the (U.S.) package to supply Ukraine with the weapons, not only materially but psychologically to be able to keep Ukraine involved and enable them to be able to continue the fight. The amazing resolve of the country and the folks that we talked to of carrying out the mission and being successful with it. And then the resiliency of the people. When you look at what they're putting up with and living through a war environment, yet they're resolved to be able to be a free country and to be protective of what they're trying to do and to win this war.
Kolbe: The biggest change is a sense of fatigue, a sense of the streets being quieter. It's a more somber place than when we first came here almost a year ago. There's determination still, though I'd say it's a grim determination because people are feeling the cost of war.
Corn: I would just say it's humbling to be here. It's humbling to meet with the Ukrainians, to see that they're continuing to stand up to the Russians in this beautiful city, which has an amazing history. I've been struck by how honest they've been about the difficulties they're facing. It's humbling to see what they're still doing despite the odds that they're facing. And it's a little bit frustrating as an American to see that, in my opinion, we are still not where we need to be in helping the Ukrainians to defend their country and the values that we share with them.
State of the war
LeFever: I think they're at an incredibly critical point in the battle. They (the Ukrainians) are sustaining, they're taking maneuvers and operations as they're patiently waiting for the aid package to be able to come, and they'll need to do that in the midst of what they're anticipating in the spring and summer, the (Russian) offensive. They can't wait much longer to get the package here, to get moving in the right direction and give them the capability and capacity to be able to defend themselves and turn to the enemy of the Russian forces.
Corn: Let's remember that many of the Ukrainian troops have been on the line in the trenches for two years now, over two years. They are exhausted. The leaders we met with have been working nonstop for two years to protect their country. Those of us that have been in war zones or have been in hard, dangerous situations know that even six months can be grueling. And so what I'm seeing with the Ukrainians is not only a great resilience, but actually a good sense of humor among many of them, which is heartening. And I have not heard any complaint about the United States' current delay in providing support, the aid package. They remain thankful and appreciative of all the help they've gotten up till now.
But of course, inside, they're waiting for the next tranche because when we were here last time, what I heard from some of the commanders is every time they got any U.S. assistance, it was a major morale boost for those forces that had been stuck in the trenches, on the front lines, slugging it out, to protect every inch or every millimeter of their country from a foreign aggressor.
Kolbe: I think there's an expectation that Russia will mobilize more troops, that it will launch an offensive in late spring or sometime in the summer. They know that they have to take the blows that Russia will hand to them.
They've got the motivation. They certainly have the capability and the manpower, but it's going to be a tough year for them. It's a defensive year. They have to defeat the offensives coming up, and then they have to be able to pivot to take advantage of the Russian defeats. Ukraine knows what they're fighting for. The men at the front, the people in Kyiv, the government, private sector, they all know what they're fighting for. They know they're fighting an existential war against an implacable enemy.
I think there's also been little appreciation for some of the tremendous successes that Ukraine has had. They have waged an incredible, asymmetric war, with hardly any navy, taking out (ships from) the Russian Black Sea fleet. They've moved the fleet from Crimea back to Novorossiysk in Russian territory. They've been able to export their grain, keeping vital sea lanes open.
LeFever: It’s amazing, the innovation, the skill with which they've been – basically a country without a Navy – to literally change the way we consider naval warfare with drones, and to be able to take out the ships that they have, and cause the Russians to move their forces and fleet far away from the Crimean Peninsula, and devastate the Black Sea Fleet.
Kolbe: They've also carried the war into Russia with homegrown weapons, with deep strikes of depth and incredible precision. Their hits on airfields, on aircraft concentrations, on oil and gas facilities in particular, are extraordinarily important, both in reducing Russia's capability to wage the war and in providing a real morale boost to Ukrainian citizens.
Russia wants to take over, subjugate, destroy the leadership in Ukraine, take it in as part of the new Russian Empire. They know they're fighting against this. They're fighting for their survival. With that, there's a tremendous spirit of national unity, even though there are political issues that they're dealing with. Hard choices about conscription. At what age do men go serve? How do they keep an economy going when they've got more than a million men under their arms? How do you sustain a fight with less ammunition than you need waiting for more help to come from the West?
The stakes – for Ukraine and beyond
LeFever: The strategic impacts are hard to imagine. It’s not only the impact for Ukraine, but for NATO, what signals it sends. The second- and third- order effects it sends to Russia, to China, and to other nations that are looking at taking over illegally parts of countries, and having that resolve and the strategic impacts that it has if the U.S. and the West back away from their support. Most important, this fight is not only for Ukraine but for the rest of the world, and the message that it sends to our partners and allies and coalition members, and what it means to be able to help them succeed in their mission.
Corn: I speak about the issue in some parts of the United States, and I hear a lot of very good, legitimate questions from Americans about the aid package that we're offering, how we're going to monitor that aid, how it's being distributed, how it's being used. As I always say, the Ukrainians themselves are open to our doing everything that we can to monitor and make sure it's being used effectively in the right way.
I hear questions related to our domestic politics, and I think that's the tragedy I'm seeing more than anything, is that the Ukrainians right now have been sucked into American domestic politics, and we need to pull the issue out and remind Americans that if Ukraine loses this war, it will be a major loss for the United States and for all of our children. And as I tell Americans all the time, the family I grew up in, the people I grew up with, we do not leave people in need behind, and we cannot leave the Ukrainians behind right now.
Kolbe: I think most Americans, when you talk to them, they understand the values that Ukraine is fighting for. I'm not sure everybody understands the full effect that a loss would mean–what that means for U.S. security, what it means for what happens next in Europe, what it means for how China reads the tea leaves, so to speak, and then takes messages for whether the U.S. and the West go wobbly on support for Ukraine. We abandon them now, they'll know that we won't stand with Taiwan when the time comes.
Goff: Probably the best message that we can take back at the end of our week here, is the cost not just to Ukraine, but the cost for the United States, the cost for Europe. This is truly a conflict not just between two countries, but it's a conflict between two value systems. And it really pains me to think that the value systems that we share with the Ukrainians, for some reason, don't seem to be enough to motivate the kind of support they need. I hope we can change that when we go back.
Russia
Corn: If the Russians continue to believe that they have the upper hand, which they probably do assess they have right now, because they are receiving weapons and ammunition from North Korea, from Iran, that are helping them on the battlefield, where the Ukrainians now are facing shortages. I think the Russians will continue their aggression and they will never be ready to make peace.
I think the Russians need to understand that this is not a war against Russia, this is a war to defend Ukraine, and the American people need to understand that. And that if we do not help the Ukrainians stand up now, then I think the next six months are absolutely critical, especially this summer. We are all going to be facing long-term consequences for the United States and for our other allies that Americans should not want their children to inherit.
Goff: It's the same old story. Putin has gotten away with a steadily growing and worsening list of crimes literally since he took office. There was a brief period when people thought that maybe he was some sort of dynamic new reformer for the post-Yeltsin era of Russia. But since that time, it's just been crime after crime, with the latest being strikes on the energy power grid sector here. The death of the one legitimate opposition figure, Navalny, in prison. It's just crime after crime that he never has to answer for. And the cynicism that that brings with it amongst people who are disappointed in the lack of Western support, I think that is what is the worst shadow of all this.
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