A DISPATCH FROM KYIV WITH GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS (RET.) – Moscow is mobilizing more troops to bolster it's frontline in Ukraine while stepping up remote-guided attacks against Ukrainian troops as members of Congress drag their feet on passing a $61 billion aid package.
"They've made tactical adjustments that are proving to be very difficult for the Ukrainians to counter, particularly the use of what are called 'glide bombs' that can be launched as much as 70 kilometers from the front lines," said General David Petraeus (Ret.), who traveled to the region last week as part of a Cipher Brief delegation.
"... the Ukrainians really don't have the kind of air or missile defenses that can neutralize that particular threat at this point in time. Resuming our assistance will provide part of the answer, so will some of the other additions to their arsenal, but they’re really plastering in certain areas with those."
The Cipher Brief delegation led by General Petraeus met with a number of high-ranking Ukrainian leaders including Ukraine's Minister of Defense, Commander in Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, senior leaders from Ukraine's Foreign and Domestic Intelligence Services, and Members of Parliament representing multiple political parties, just to name a few.
In a Subscriber+Exclusive transcript series this week, we’re bringing you the key takeaways from several members of that delegation.
No time to read? Watch the video dispatch from Kyiv on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel. The interview has been lightly edited for clarity.
The Cipher Brief: You’ve just concluded a week of high-level meetings as part of The Cipher Brief’s Kyiv Forum. What are your key takeaways from these meetings and others you’ve had there?
Gen. Petraeus: There are a lot of challenges ahead. The Ukrainians clearly recognize that. They've taken a very important step in signing the new conscription law that drops the age at which individuals can be called up from 27 to 25. Doesn't sound like a huge deal. It is. That's about 100,000 men who will likely be able to be conscripted as a result of this. And also, the huge urgency, of course, for resumption of US assistance.
The Europeans have done their part. The EU even provided an additional 50 billion euros several weeks ago. Only the U.S. has the industrial strength weapons systems that are so desperately needed. And that amount that's in Congress could literally be decisive over the course of this year, which is going to be a tough year. The Ukrainians recognize that they're largely going to have to be on the defensive this year.
In a way, if we revisit the whole experience here from the beginning, I think the first year, many people were overly pessimistic about the chances of Ukraine and the Ukrainians surprised massively to the upside, winning the battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kherson, and even Kharkiv province. The second year, I think can be characterized as a period where individuals were overly optimistic about the prospects for the summer offensive. Although, as we look back at that, we realize now how that came about, partly because the Western systems didn't get into their hands early enough. There were delays in decisions that proved very costly. And then the Russians, to be fair to them, established a very, very formidable defense in the South. So there was some achievement, modest, not enough to really change the dynamics in the way that had been hoped.
And this year, I think the way to characterize it is that there is a realistic assessment, and the reality is that it is very, very tough. But the Ukrainians have taken this very important step the Americans need now. We need to resume our assistance and to really fill that pipeline back up to enable the Ukrainians to hold the territory that they have now, recognizing that they retook at least half of what the Russians seized in the early stages of the war, and then see where the dynamics are and see what might be possible after that.
The Cipher Brief: The U.S. aid package for Ukraine has been held up for months now because of politics. How has Russia seized on this opportunity and used it to their advantage?
Gen. Petraeus: Russia is taking a number of actions. First of all, they are mobilizing more forces themselves, but I don't think you'll really see those entering the ranks in Ukraine until the summer. They've made tactical adjustments that are proving to be very difficult for the Ukrainians to counter, particularly the use of what are called 'glide bombs' that can be launched as much as 70 kilometers from the front lines. And the Ukrainians really don't have the kind of air or missile defenses that can neutralize that particular threat at this point in time. Resuming our assistance will provide part of the answer, so will some of the other additions to their arsenal, but they’re really plastering in certain areas with those.
And then there's been a very precise targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy generation and transmission. And we've seen literally just in the last two weeks, a big effort to do that around critical areas like Kharkiv in the eastern part of Ukraine, the second-largest city in the country. And that's presenting difficulties. Again, obviously, a big repair effort will be required before next winter. But again, this is where the air defense and ballistic missile defenses need to be shored up again by U.S. assistance.
The Cipher Brief: You had a private meeting with Ukraine’s Commander in Chief, General Syrskyi. What was your takeaway in terms of Ukraine's ability to continue this fight while not getting the aid package it needs from Washington?
Gen. Petraeus: General Syrskyi, of course, is the new chief of defense staff. They call him commander in chief here of the Ukrainian military which is their chairman of the Joint Chief's equivalent. I'm very impressed by him, frankly. I knew his predecessor, General Zaluzhny, as well. I think Syrskyi is very much going to fill this position very admirably. But again, he has his hands full. He's allocating shortages, if you will, as every battlefield commander. I never had what I hoped we would have in Iraq or Afghanistan. So you're always trying to answer to the extent that you can, the many requests from those who are on the front lines. He's grappling with that, how to prioritize, how to enable his forces to the extent that he can. But this is somebody who's been on the front lines of this war for many, many years.
He was the key to the defense of Kyiv at the outset of the latest episode here. But before that, he was down in Donetsk and Luhansk during the period in 2014 when the Russians seized Crimea and then supported the separatists in those two provinces in the southeast. And he's been in and out of this just constantly. He has a very good feel for those on the front lines. You can sense that. He's one of those that clearly, sincerely loves his soldiers.
And what they're doing now is very rapid integration of unmanned systems. This is where there have been successes. Again, the Ukrainians have basically cleared out the Western Black Sea. They've sunk 30% or so of the Russian Black Sea Fleet using a combination of air and maritime drones. Very, very effective in that regard. And that's crucial. This is a real breakthrough because it opens up the Western Black Sea so that Ukraine can, once again, export grain and other materials that are so important to their fiscal bottom line.
And keep in mind, they're also so important to North African countries who depend on Ukrainian grain. It's about 25% of the world's exports in grain. It's very significant. And their food security really rests on the ability to import that. So that's a very important achievement.
And on the front lines, what they're doing is much greater use of drones as opposed to soldiers. They're using especially the first-person view drones that they're receiving from Western countries and producing large numbers of themselves as well. These developments are ones that Ukraine is pursuing. And again, you see an action, reaction and they're having to do applications. Every 30 days or so, there's a new software change. You can really see hints, maybe even more than hints of the future of warfare here in Ukraine. And it's evolved very rapidly. It's already been transformed just from the last trip here, which was back in September.
The Cipher Brief: With your military background, do you believe that this aid package, if it's passed quickly, and if aid is able to make it to Ukraine in the ways that it needs to as quickly as it can, is it enough for Ukraine to make significant victories, either in pushing Russia back or at least taking back some of the territory that Russia is holding?
Gen. Petraeus: It depends on a number of different factors. I think the key really is to stabilize the lines this year. The Russians are throwing enormous quantities of soldiers at the Ukrainian defenses, incredibly costly, modest gains, incremental gains. But they've got to hold these lines. And I think that's really going to be largely the focus of this year if they have tactical opportunities, they're ready to take those. But they can't do that without, again, this whole pipeline, not just beginning to flow, but actually with rounds at the guns near the front line with the soldiers, weapon systems shored back up, air defenses rebuilt in some cases as well. It's crucial. The Ukrainians are doing their part, more than their part. And by the way, they're fighting our common enemy. This is in our national security interests. Absolutely. And they're actually dealing with the Russians in a way that is very, very impressive.
The Cipher Brief: The Ukrainians have been fighting this war for two years now, there is growing frustration about the foot dragging and politics in Washington – understandably so because each day that passes, means more Ukrainian soldiers – who are doing all of the fighting to defend their country – are coming back in body bags and coming back injured. What is your sense of the Ukrainian mindset under these incredibly difficult conditions?
Gen. Petraeus: There's no question about the continued determination of the Ukrainians. They're involved in their war of independence, and they're doing everything they possibly can to ensure their continued freedom, their continued security in the face of this brutal and unprovoked invasion by a neighbor who believes they don't have a right to exist. We can't let Ukraine fail. We can't let Russia win. If that happens, they're not going to stop here in Ukraine. Next will be Moldova, then Lithuania, perhaps the other Baltic States. This is a threat to all of our NATO partners, and it's really a threat to the Western world. If naked aggression like this is allowed to succeed, we'll see more of it around the world. And finally, if we don't help Ukraine in its hour of need, no one's going to believe that we're going to help other countries around the world in their hours of need.
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