The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is the most successful terrorist organization in modern history. ISIS has aggressively expanded into nine other countries and, through social media, has motivated and inspired its followers around the world to kill fellow citizens. What differentiates ISIS from other terror groups is its ability to capture and hold a large swath of territory to create its Caliphate, the Islamic State.
Ironically, the territory that ISIS holds is also its greatest vulnerability. Once it loses territory, ISIS is reduced to simply another terrorist organization, hiding in the shadows or forced to flee to another country (likely Libya).
The only way to defeat an enemy who is holding terrain is to conduct a decisive ground campaign supported by effective air power, similar to what the U.S. and its allies did to regain territory from the Germans and Japanese during WWII, and from the North Koreans who occupied South Korea during the Korean War.
In Iraq, it makes the most sense to support the local indigenous forces to conduct a ground campaign. However, those forces are a weak hand because they require rebuilding and retraining after ISIS forced their collapse last year.
Instead of providing minimal support to Iraqi forces, which has been the White House plan to date, the U.S. must once and for all provide all required advisors, trainers, and air controllers needed to dramatically increase the combat effectiveness of the Iraqi Army, Sunni tribal force, and Kurdish Peshmerga. The output of trained units should be at least three times greater, and the U.S. troop requirement would be about ten thousand.
Another key requirement is to recognize the criticality of Sunni opposition forces to help depose ISIS, which is for the most part occupying Sunni lands. However, that requires a political solution to achieve unity between the Sunnis and the majority Shia in Iraq, something Iran, a Shia-dominated country, is doing all it can to prevent. The U.S. should dispatch former Ambassador Ryan Crocker, America’s most esteemed Middle East diplomat, to assist in achieving this unity, something he accomplished once before during the 2007 surge in Iraq.
The U.S. also needs to dramatically increase the number of UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), mine clearance vehicles, Apache helicopters and much other needed equipment to the Iraqi government. There are reports that the Iraq government turned down Defense Secretary Ashton Carter's recent offer of more Apaches, which if true, is very disappointing and clearly provides testimony to the untoward influence of Iran on the Iraqi leadership.
In Syria, there must be recognition that ISIS will never be defeated there until the Syrian civil war ends. The objective is not simply a ceasefire but the elimination of President Bashar Assad and his Alawite regime. The U.S. should not give in to Russian demands for their cooperation in the peace process or their willingness to help fight ISIS. The Russians insist that Assad should stay, but if he does eventually go, the Alawite regime would remain. Sadly, it is reported that Secretary of State John Kerry may have already conceded that Assad can stay. If true, it is an appalling and unnecessary capitulation, which flies in the face of four years of U.S. policy that Assad must go.
Safe zones must first be established in Northwest Syria along the Turkish border and in Southwest Syria along the Jordanian border to protect Syrian refugees. An international military force on the ground, coalition air power, and Jordanian and Turkish missile defense would enforce the safe zones.
Meanwhile, the U.S. should assist in building an Arab/NATO coalition not just to support an air campaign, but also to execute the decisive ground defeat of ISIS. Furthermore, the U.S should be prepared to lead as well as participate in the effort with a few ground combat brigades.
In support of both the Iraq and Syria campaigns, the U.S. should unleash a devastating air campaign without the imposed restrictions of the last 15 months, which have been disproportionate to all recent air campaigns in extreme concern for civilian casualties. The mission of Special Operations Forces (SOF) should expand beyond just targeting leaders or conducting hostage rescues. SOF should conduct large scale in/out raids to target ISIS critical nodes and infrastructure.
Active support from Arab nations is critical to defeating ISIS, but that assistance is problematic. Before the Arab states would put a large number of ground forces in Syria, they want an end to the civil war and the removal of the Assad regime, which has been responsible for 250 thousand predominantly Sunni deaths, four million refugees and seven million displaced Syrians. And Sunni Arab states will not conduct ground operations in Iraq to sustain a Shia dominated government that has disenfranchised Iraqi Sunnis and tacitly permitted Iranian backed militias to kill thousands of Sunnis.
Clearly, ISIS is not contained and is far from defeated as it succeeds in executing its global strategy. The ISIS terrorists continue to kill and recruit worldwide, and they inspire their followers to kill Americans. The U.S. has the best defensive security system in the world. But it is not sufficient. We must have a good offense to stop and defeat ISIS. However, we do not. We are not even close. Dragging out the war, which is the White House plan, provides ISIS with a degree of invincibility, a sense of destiny and purpose, and shrouds it in an aura of success. We need a sense of urgency and resolve to win, with a coherent decisive strategy to defeat ISIS.
