When it comes to the world’s most fragile states, two of the wealthiest and most-developed countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, would not normally top the list. But by certain key metrics, they do: both significantly worsened in the category of “group grievance” – the indicator that measures feelings of heightened frustration in sub-communities within a country – in The Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (FSI) during the past year.
The United States, in fact, ranks as one of the most-worsened countries overall in 2017.
“That’s a bit jarring,” said former CIA Acting Director and Cipher Brief Expert John McLaughlin at an FSI launch event in Washington Monday. McLaughlin said the change is largely a reflection of harsh political campaigns – referring to last year’s U.S. presidential campaign and the British Brexit campaign.
“It doesn’t mean that either country is about to collapse,” he said, but it shows that “even mature, experienced democracies can develop … political pathologies.”
“The only countries that worsened on ‘group grievance’ more than the United Kingdom were the likes of Syria, Yemen, and other countries you wouldn’t expect to be in the company of the United Kingdom,” The Fund for Peace Executive Director J. J. Messner told The Cipher Brief.
The Current State of Fragility
At the launch event for the 2017 Index held in Washington on Monday, Messner also said that the U.S. and UK’s decline is a long-term trend of increasing internal tensions in both countries, adding, “many of the countries that are worsening are actually developed countries.”
The United States’ southern neighbor is a bright red flag in this year’s index. Mexico ties with Ethiopia for most-worsened country year-to-year, which runs counter to Mexico’s trend of long-term improvement.
Other countries appear relatively stable on the surface but, according to the FSI, deserve more attention, especially because “they’re strategically situated by virtue of geography, ethnicity, resources,” or relations with a superpower, McLaughlin said. These include Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, Vietnam, Armenia, and South Africa.
Like Mexico – and the U.S. – South Africa ranked as one of the most-worsened countries overall in 2017, coming in as fifth most-worsened. However, retired Ambassador Herman Cohen said at the FSI launch that regarding South Africa, “I think the ability to overcome conflict, which is normal in every country, should give them a decrease in their fragility rather than an increase.”
Cohen, who was Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the George H. W. Bush Administration, added that since conflict is normal, the FSI may not need to regard every conflict as a sign of fragility.
Though some in the audience questioned individual rankings or specific indicators, Messner noted that the index should be used to compare countries’ current and past performance to discern long-term trends, rather than to compare countries to each other. The methodology of the Index involves processing 50 million data points in an algorithm that quantifies the data. These data sets are then reviewed by international agencies and experts.
Looking Ahead
This year, a new FSI app allows users to manually choose which factors they want to give more weight when analyzing a specific country. In future indices, The Fund for Peace will, according to Messner, incorporate artificial intelligence into the analysis, so that it can analyze data more deeply and better develop possible future scenarios, allowing policymakers to plan for and come up with potential reactions to possible crises.
The FSI is, in essence, an “early warning” indicator, said Messner.
“Policymakers should pay attention,” McLaughlin said, noting that the index provides a window into incremental changes that can move countries to tipping points.
This is one reason why the worsening of the U.S. and UK is notable, Messner said; it shows “tensions that had already begun to develop quite some time ago and have been worsening ever since,” and that extremist rhetoric has manifested itself into actual division.
Bright Spots Remain
The ranking is not all bad news. Cuba, for example, has shown a long-term trend of improvement. The former Soviet bloc and former Yugoslavia countries are also generally moving in the right direction. And Colombia continues its trend of improved ratings, reinforced by the recent peace agreement with the FARC and the end of its more than 50-year-old civil war.
“The reality is that we are seeing general improvement of a majority of the countries that we analyze,” said Messner.
These may not be the most dangerous times, McLaughlin said, citing his colleague and fellow Cipher Brief Expert, retired General Michael Hayden, but it’s certainly the most complicated.
The Cipher Brief is the Fund for Peace’s media partner for the 2017 Fragile States Index. Over the coming weeks, we will provide in-depth analysis on the findings of the Index, the level of influence of key indicators, and many of the most changed countries identified by the Index. Later this week, we will hear from former Acting Director of the CIA and Cipher Brief Expert John McLaughlin on the importance of the data and what he found the most surprising – and the most worrisome. For more on the 2017 Fragile States Index, check out our podcast with the Executive Director of the Fund for Peace, J.J. Messner.
Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
