Warning Signs of a More Dangerous Global Conflict

Posted: February 22nd, 2023

By Rob Dannenberg

Rob Dannenberg served as chief of operations for CIA's Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia Division and chief of the Information Operations Center before retiring from the Agency. He served as managing director and head of the Office of Global Security for Goldman Sachs, and as director of International Security Affairs at BP. He is now an independent consultant on geopolitical and security risk.

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT — If President Joe Biden’s recent remarks in Poland and President Vladimir Putin’s in Moscow just a day later are any indication of the path forward, the February 24 anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine may represent the beginning of a new and potentially much more dangerous phase of the conflict, which is increasingly looking like a conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation. Add to that, ominous signals from Beijing and Tehran that this conflict could get much bigger as the leaders of those autocracies start to understand the consequences of a Russian defeat for their own regimes.

Let’s start with the symbolism of President Biden reaching Kyiv before President Putin and where this conflict may be headed.

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