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Whither Trump Trade in Asia

The election of Donald Trump and the demise of the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement has unleashed a flood of anxiety-ridden commentary about how China will now seize leadership in Asia and how Trump may launch devastating trade wars that might lead to real wars.

This is mostly nonsense. The notion that the TPP was going to ensure America’s everlasting hegemony in Asia and keep China from spreading its wings was always ridiculous and unfounded. On the one hand, the TPP was never going to change the fundamental alignment of forces and influence in Asia. The United States has been and will, under any circumstances, remain the major buyer of Asian goods. Some note that China is now the biggest trading partner of most Asian countries rather than the United States. But this simplistic glance at statistics ignores the actual pattern of trade flows. Much of what the rest of Asia sends to China is simply assembled there and then sent on to the United States. The major end market is still America. So, in actuality, America remains the biggest trading partner for most Asian countries.

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