Some analysts believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is losing patience as its military becomes more capable, ushering in the opportunity for China to take Taiwan by force. But what’s at stake if it does?
The recently announced new U.S. arms deal to Taiwan sparked an immediate threat of retaliation from China. An example of the precariousness of the geo-political situation came during a recent visit to Taiwan by U.S. Undersecretary of State Keith Krach, the highest level diplomatic visit by the U.S. in decades.
Taiwan scrambled fighter jets in response to an aggressive provocation by China, which included 18 Chinese military aircraft, including fighters and bombers which crossed the sensitive mid-line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Zone.
Taiwan has publicly welcomed the increased U.S. support, while also stating that it is not looking to engage in a new arms race with China. China has increasingly made public warnings to the U.S. about interfering in China’s internal and regional affairs and has sharpened its rhetoric about reunification with Taiwan.
Background on recent prominent U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan:
- October 21, 2020: China Threatens Retaliation over new U.S. Arms Deal to Taiwan. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said in a news briefing that the sales “seriously interfere with China’s internal affairs, seriously damage China’s sovereignty and security interests, send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces, and severely damage China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,”.
- October 21, 2020: S. Approves New Arms Deal for Taiwan. The State Department approved a deal for new US Arms sales to Taiwan, including sensors, missiles and artillery.
- July 2020: DOS approves $620 million sale of Patriot surface-to-air missiles to Taiwan.
- May 2020: The administration approved $180 million arms sale of torpedoes and related equipment to Taiwan.
- August 2019: The administration approved $8 billion sale of sixty-six F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan.
- July 2019: DOS approved $2 billion sale of M1A2T Abrams Tanks and related equipment.
- April 2019: DOS approved $500 million plan to continue pilot, maintenance, and logistics training for Taiwan air force F-16 fighters based at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona.
- June 2017: The first arms sale from the Trump administration to Taiwan totaled $1.42 billion.
The Cipher Brief's Brad Christian spoke with Experts Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Tim Willasey-Wilsey and Daniel Markey about where recent escalations could be headed.
Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani spent more than two decades as a member of CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and was director of East Asia Operations. He also served as Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea and was Special Advisor to the Director of National Intelligence.
Cipher Brief Expert Tim Willasey-Wilsey served more than 27 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, with much of his career spent in Asia. He is now visiting professor of War Studies at King’s College, London and authored a Cipher Brief piece in June asking why wouldn’t China invade Taiwan now, with comment from General Martin Dempsey, Admiral James Stavridis and other Cipher Brief experts.
Cipher Brief Expert Daniel Markey is a Senior Research Professor and Academic Director of the Global Policy Program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is also the author of China’s Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia.
We asked each of our experts what they are keeping in mind as they consider the near-term future for Taiwan and whether the outcome of the U.S. presidential election would change the dynamic.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Advisor to the Director of National Intelligence
China could de-escalate things, certainly with a new administration but they could also do it right now. They could stop their military exercises, and stop the overflights, and they can signal a willingness to have a dialogue with the leadership in Taiwan. But to be frank, I just don't see China de-escalating in any significant way or showing any element of compromise on this issue whether we are dealing with a 2nd Trump administration or a Joe Biden administration. I think China is on a course that's full steam ahead and they're going to continue to put as much pressure on Taiwan as possible.
Tim Willasey-Wilsey, Former Senior Member of the British Foreign Office
Former Senior Member of the British Foreign Office
Even if Xi Jinping knows nothing about Winston Churchill’s nightmares about Gallipoli on the eve of the Normandy invasion, he would not be human if he did not have fears of what a failed invasion would look like; sinking ships, drowning sailors, stranded paratroopers surrendering to victorious Taiwanese forces, and all providing a platform for the many enemies he made in reaching the pinnacle of the Party hierarchy.
Daniel Markey, Academic Director, Global Policy Program, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
I would only observe that although a military conflict between China and Taiwan is more likely in the next year than it has been in the past - and therefore should occupy U.S. policymakers - it is still far more plausible to see Beijing's saber rattling as a coercive politico-military strategy rather than a warfighting strategy. Moreover, one of the main audiences for Beijing's increasingly bellicose rhetoric is its own public. Still, neither a Trump or Biden administration would be able to sit back, and watch Taiwan be coerced. To the contrary, both would see strategic value in demonstrating commitment to Taiwan early so as to make the costs of Chinese adventurism clear, so new arms sales - especially coastal defense missiles - would likely be the rule, not the exception.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Advisor to the Director of National Intelligence
I think the U.S. and China are on a path, for the next three to six months, where things will get more intense. I think we will see great attention focused on the U.S. relationship to Taiwan. I think the U.S. will continue on this path, and I think that's logical. The U.S. is making it very clear that it is there for Taiwan. China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, will continue to respond in a very negative way. That means a greater escalation.
For a deeper-dive conversation on Taiwan with Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, read Anticipating China's Next Moves on Taiwan, exclusively in The Cipher Brief.
Cipher Brief intern Lindsay Tryba contributed research for this piece. Tryba is an MA student of International Security at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.
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