As the U.S. decides on its next president, The Cipher Brief is focusing on increasing, and concerning tensions over Taiwan. TCB's Brad Christian spoke with Ambassador Joseph DeTrani about increased U.S. military sales to Taiwan and what indicators might signal that China is confident enough to risk an invasion?
Ambassador DeTrani is former Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and is the former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He spent more than two decades as a member of CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service. He has also served as Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence and is a fluent Mandarin Chinese speaker.
The Cipher Brief: How is China likely to react to an increased level of U.S. military sales and support to Taiwan?
Detrani: Historically, China has always reacted negatively to U.S. military sales to Taiwan. But China does understand that the U.S. has a relationship and a commitment to Taiwan pursuant to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, that commits the U.S. to providing Taiwan with the military arms necessary to defend itself. So, this is not problematic on the part of any U.S. administration. I think the uptick is indicative of the fact that the Trump Administration will provide a comparable amount military support, if not more than the Obama and the Bush administrations. I think China knows that. And China will protest, as they've done in the past, but this is a continuum for the U.S. We have a commitment, and we're going to live by that commitment.
The Cipher Brief: In September of this year, the U.S. sent Under Secretary of State Keith Krach to Taiwan, making him the highest-ranking U.S. diplomat to visit in decades. And the White House notified Congress on Oct 21 of its intent to sell a new round of military equipment, which includes advanced air and sea defense technology. Do you believe the U.S.’s combined focus on increasing diplomatic engagement while enhancing Taiwan’s military capability will provide an increased level of deterrence for China in terms of any potential military action against Taiwan?
Detrani: In my view, the current package of $1.8 billion, which includes anti-ship cruise missiles, sophisticated artillery and reconnaissance sensors will certainly enhance Taiwan's capability to defend itself if indeed China decides to use military force to seek unification, which would be tragic. And not only does the U.S. have a commitment to Taiwan to support them with military equipment, but Taiwan obviously is also committed to defending its own people. I think what we have sold to Taiwan and what we're planning to sell with this new tranche will indeed enhance their defensive capabilities, no question.
In terms of deterring China, it's a matter of escalation. We see what China is doing right now, which is basically intimidating Taiwan with military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, and with overflying areas that are considered no-fly zones. China is showing Taiwan that they're not happy with not only the military sales, but they're not happy with the government in Taiwan, led by Tsai Ing-wen. Xi Jinping has a commitment to the Chinese Communist Party and to the people of China that he will seek unification with Taiwan, whether it's in 2049, or whatever that date is, but we're talking about a critical core issue regarding relations with Taiwan. In my view, it is the most critical core issue for the government of the People's Republic of China, and certainly for Xi Jinping.
The Cipher Brief: One of the things that we see now is an almost constant and immediate tit-for-tat escalation of tensions between the U.S. and China. Immediately following the announcement of this new deal to Taiwan, China's foreign ministry spokesman announced that Beijing would be sanctioning U.S. Defense firms, and criticized the arms sales to Taiwan as “seriously damaging China’s sovereignty and security interests”. In terms of statements out of China or in terms of actions that they may take, what are you watching for that may signal that China is thinking of taking this conflict to the next level?
Detrani: That’s an excellent question and I think China has taken it to a new level. Tsai Ing-wen has indicated that she is willing to have a dialogue with the leadership in Beijing, and China has rebuffed that. In the past, China was always seeking a dialogue with Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen's predecessor as president of Taiwan. So, China does not seem to be interested in a dialogue with Taiwan about the issue of reunification. If Beijing is saying they don't want to hold dialogue with Taiwan, you have to wonder how this will be solved peacefully. The military exercises they've been conducting over the last few months are extremely provocative. They've crossed some lines. They've had overflights, exercises and the deployments of short-range ballistic missiles. And they've been deploying those missiles for the last decade, but certainly they've significantly enhanced it recently. These are all movements that signal greater intimidation toward the government of Taiwan.
The Cipher Brief: In the event that we have a change of administration in the United States, how might Beijing be looking to exploit that change early on to either de-escalate or to gain an advantage?
Detrani: China could de-escalate things, certainly with a new administration, but they could also do it right now. They could stop their military exercises, and stop the overflights, and they can signal a willingness to have a dialogue with the leadership in Taiwan. But to be frank, I just don't see China de-escalating in any significant way or showing any element of compromise on this issue whether we are dealing with a 2nd Trump administration or a Joe Biden administration. I think China is on a course and they are full steam ahead and they're going to continue to put as much pressure on Taiwan as they can. They would be looking more, in my view, for a new U.S. administration coming in, to show a willingness to de-escalate, not to send senior officials to Taiwan as the Trump Administration has done, and to show more deference to China's interest in the region.
I personally think China is considering the possibility that the U.S. will escalate even further, and that the U.S. would seek to have greater political interaction with Taiwan. Certainly, for the Xi Jinping government, this is a serious issue. So, I think they will be watching for the next administration whether it's Trump or Biden, to stop the state-to-state relationship between that U.S. and China. But I doubt that we would see much from China that de-escalates the current situation in any way. They will wait for the U.S. to make the move to de-escalate. And if the US doesn't make the move, and instead escalates, they will do the same.
The Cipher Brief: With the way things are going, what's your prognosis for the next three to six months?
Detrani: I think it will get more intense. I think we will see greater attention in terms of the U.S.’ relationship to Taiwan. I think the U.S. will continue on this path, and I think that's logical. The U.S. is making it very clear that it is there for Taiwan. And I think China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, will continue to respond in a very negative way. That means a greater escalation. So, I think things will become much more tense.
The Cipher Brief's Brad Christian conducted this interview.
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