Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Welcome! Log in to stay connected and make the most of your experience.

Input clean

What’s Next for Afghanistan and Iran? Water Wars

Multiple challenges face Iran-Afghanistan relations, chief among them are security and resource issues.  Tehran seeks a stable government in Kabul, but one that does not rely on the U.S. for its security and stability.  Ironically, this has led Iran to, in the short-term, make common cause with the Taliban so it can deprive the United States of the ability to negotiate a settlement between the Taliban and Kabul.

  • In August 2017, the New York Times reported on Iranian arms shipments to a Taliban stronghold in Farah province, which resulted in attacks on the local police headquarters.
  • In July 2017, Afghan authorities in Ghor province accused Iran of giving explosives to the Taliban to blow up the Salma dam, which has restricted the flow of water to Iran’s Khorasan province.
  • In 2016, Afghan officials accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Gaurds Corps (IRGC) Quds Force of recruiting Afghan militants and training them inside Iran.

However, Iran has no long-term desire to see the Taliban replace the Kabul government. Tehran does not want a hostile Sunni Islamist government on its border allied with Saudi Arabia and a recipient of Gulf Arab largesse that will menace Iran and persecute Shia communities inside Afghanistan.  Iran and Afghanistan, who do not have a traditional military rivalry, almost went to war in 1997 after Taliban militants seized the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e Sharif and murdered several Iranian diplomats, many of who were alleged to be members of the IRGC.  Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei ordered the mobilization of nearly 70,000 troops on the Iran-Afghan border but then ordered his troops to stand down after the UN offered to mediate the dispute.

Keep reading...Show less
Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member.

Related Articles

How Trump Can Be the Winning President in Ukraine

“To each there comes in their lifetime a special moment when they are figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered the chance to do a very special [...] More

Report for Friday, July 11, 2025

8:40 America/New York Friday, July 11 [...] More

Dead Drop: July 11

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION: (Yet) another Russian leader who falls out with Putin, has a really bad week; Reports emerge about Iran's low-budget [...] More

As Nukes Spread, Robust Missile Defenses Must Rise

OPINION — More countries aspire to be nuclear-weapons states, and we should prepare for this eventuality. That’s why the Golden Dome missile defense [...] More

Mission CIA: Mapping Beijing’s Path to War

Mission CIA: Mapping Beijing’s Path to War

Taiwan has launched its largest annual military exercise ever - amid growing concern that China is on the cusp of launching a military invasion. Many [...] More

Report for Thursday, July 10, 2025

8:40 America/New York Thursday, July 10 [...] More

Rekindling Memories of the Fuji Fire

Rekindling Memories of the Fuji Fire

In October1979, the most powerful cyclone in recorded history, raced across the Pacific and set in motion circumstances that caused a horrendous fire [...] More

Doing Battle in the Gray Zone

Doing Battle in the Gray Zone

Subscriber+Members are invited to join us on Wednesday, July 23 at 1:00p ET for an exclusive virtual conversation on gray zone operations led by [...] More

Report for Wednesday, July 9, 2025

9:12 America/New Wednesday, July 9 [...] More