EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — There was something unnerving about the 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. It was orchestrated meticulously, except for the removal from the Congress of former President Hu Jintao who, according to Chinese media, was ill.
This was President Xi Jinping’s Congress and he dominated it, appointing loyalists to the 380 - member Central Committee, the 24-member Politburo and the seven-member Politburo Bureau Standing Committee, the most senior officials in China.
The contrarians were removed – Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang were removed from the Standing Committee, and the failure of Hu Chunhua to be promoted to the Standing Committee was noteworthy.
It appears that the Premier and others may have questioned some of Xi’s economic decisions, especially regarding greater state and party influence and control of a market economy dependent on private sector entities that fuel China’s economic engine.
The retirement and removal of pro-reform officials, like Vice Premier Liu He and People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang and banking regulator Guo Shuqing are concerning, especially given China’s current economic challenges, like high unemployment — especially for college graduates – and a festering demographic problem dating back to China’s one child policy.
Those close to Xi were promoted to the Standing Committee: Li Qiang, Party Chief in Shanghai, and the likely new premier; Cai Qi, the Party Chief in Beijing; Ding Xuexiang, a senior aide to Mr. Xi and Li Xi, Party Chief in Guangdong province. They join Zhao Leji and Wang Huning who remain on the Standing Committee. This is the team in theory responsible for policy decisions affecting China’s economic development.
In fact, however, it’s the team that will rubber stamp Xi’s decisions on economic policy and the state’s involvement with the private sector and its impact on market dynamics. Critics will say that the state’s past involvement with those private sector companies, like Alibaba and Tik Tok, has impeded China’s economic growth.
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It wasn’t a surprise that Xi remains Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), a critically important organization that oversees and manages the Army, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force and the Strategic Support and Joint Logistic Forces. The CMC is responsible to the Party, ensuring that the “Party controls the gun.”
Principal Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia, who remains on the CMC despite his age of 72, which is beyond the mandatory retirement age of 68, has unique experience from the 1979 Sino-Vietnam war. General Zhang is joined by new members General Li Shangfu, experienced in electronic, cyber and space warfare and General He Weidong, former commander of the Eastern Theatre Command, responsible for Taiwan operations, having orchestrated the unprecedented military drills and missile tests around Taiwan, in protest to the visit of House Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan.
Fellow CMC members Admiral Miao Hua, an experienced political commissar and recently promoted Liu Zhenli, commander of forces around Beijing with experience with the People’s Armed Police, also bring unique capabilities to the CMC’s executive leadership team. One of these senior military officers will replace the retiring the Defense Minister, Wei Fenghe, when the National People’s Congress meets in March 2023.
Based on comments from Xi at the Congress, China’s military budget will continue to grow from about $229 billion in 2022, to a significantly higher figure in 2023 and beyond, with a focus on establishing a more formidable nuclear triad – air, ground, and sea. Xi made it clear that he intends to build the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class military and to improve its “ability to win.”
Xi’s focus on national security – mainly domestic security — was clearly stated, with the appointment of Chen Yixin as the Minister of State Security and a member of the Politburo, for the first time. And when Xi spoke about China’s overall threat environment, no doubt he was talking about the United States and developments with Taiwan.
Xi’s comments about Taiwan at the Congress were loud and clear: China reserves the option of “taking all measures necessary” against “interference by outside forces” on the issue of Taiwan, while speaking of China’s resolve for reunification with Taiwan. Xi said “we will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force. And we reserve the option of taking all measures.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. National Security Strategy that was just published by the White House, also made it clear that the U.S. would oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side (China or Taiwan) and that it does not support Taiwan independence.
It stated the U.S. remains committed to a one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Communiques, and the Six Assurances. And the U.S. will uphold our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to support Taiwan’s self-defense and to maintain our capacity to resist force or coercion against Taiwan.
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Xi’s political and military appointments at the 20th Party Congress made it clear to all that China will focus on domestic security – especially in Hong Kong and Xinjiang – and will build a more formidable military, while seeking reunification with Taiwan, using military force if necessary.
The appointment of Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the Politburo, despite reaching retirement age at 69, is indicative of Xi’s confidence in Wang Yi and his ability to work with the United States and the European Union and others on sensitive bilateral and multilateral issues.
On October 31, Wang Yi spoke with Secretary of State Antony Blinken about maintaining open lines of communication to manage U.S. – China relations. No doubt, Taiwan will be on top of this list of subjects to discuss, especially if President Biden meets with General Secretary Xi at the upcoming G20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia.
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