Vying for Power in Iran

With one of the most complex systems of governance in the world, Iran finds itself at perhaps its most daunting political crossroads since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The 77-year old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly is in declining health and possibly nearing the end of his tenure, and several other founders of the Iranian revolution have died – most notably former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani this January.  And elections are scheduled in May to determine whether President Hassan Rouhani will remain in office.  All of this raises questions regarding who will succeed Khamenei and the direction of Iranian foreign and domestic politics moving forward.

“As the generation of revolutionary Iran’s founding fathers passes from the scene, its leaders are seeking to reinforce their control over their legacy even as a competition for primacy among their heirs and rivals has already begun,” writes Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution and a leading scholar on Iran. “This shadowboxing among regime elites will shape the future of Iran, and the prospects for escalation or resolution in its four-decade estrangement with Washington,” she continues.