The Outlook for Energy Cooperation between Canada and the U.S.

By Robert Johnston

Robert ("RJ") Johnston became chief executive officer in 2013 after seven years as head of the firm's Global Energy and Natural Resources Strategy Group. Prior to joining Eurasia Group, RJ served as managing director of equity research at Medley Global Advisors, where he was responsible for providing political and strategic insights to clients in the institutional investment community and served as the lead analyst for global energy equities. He also was a research director at UBS Warburg Energy, working directly in support of energy trading. RJ previously directed internal research teams supporting oil, LNG, metals, and FX trading at Enron Global Markets. Earlier, at ArmorGroup, RJ directed political risk research for corporate clients in a variety of markets including China, Russia, Colombia, and Indonesia. RJ holds a doctorate in international relations from American University, a master's degree in political science from McMaster University, and a bachelor's degree in political studies from Bishop's University.

By Hilary Novik

Specializing in North American oil and gas, Hilary Novik helps identify and analyze political risks and regulatory developments affecting upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors in the US and Canada, as well as the impact of these developments on global energy markets. Hilary's expertise focuses on the oil sands business models and the ramifications of a shifting climate change direction in Canada, developments in Canada and US LNG and natural gas markets, political and regulatory risks surrounding the US shale revolution, and energy infrastructure developments. She also covers political and economic issues in Canada, helping clients to understand the complex macro environment as well as identify investment and market entry risks and opportunities. Prior to joining Eurasia Group, Hilary worked on international affairs issues in the government relations office of Occidental Petroleum Corporation in Washington. She has held internships at the US Department of State, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the National Defense University. A member of the New York City chapter of the Young Professionals in Energy, Hilary holds a master's degree from George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs and a bachelor's degree from Trinity College.

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States has officially triggered a wave of significant policy changes in Washington, initially on issues of trade, foreign policy, energy, and the environment. At the same time, President Trump’s well-known isolationist foreign policy and protectionist trade agendas have raised serious questions and uncertainties regarding the future of bilateral relations with Canada. Already, Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the U.S. from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and has signaled plans to move quickly to meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to begin renegotiation talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The shifting policy landscape in Washington has had serious direct and indirect impacts on Canada, especially as initial questions are raised about Prime Minister Trudeau’s energy and environmental agenda. Primarily, the prime minister is facing growing concerns regarding issue of competitiveness for Canadian oil and gas companies as Canada continues to advance its own aggressive environmental policies, while Trump aims to remove as much regulatory red tape as possible for fossil fuels development. Since sweeping to power in a historic election in October 2015, Trudeau’s energy priorities have been to balance his grand environmental and climate change mitigation ambitions with the current economic realities of Canada’s resource-based economy in the current low oil price environment. Oil sands development alone accounts for about three percent of total Canadian GDP, making it far too difficult for Trudeau to “phase out,” especially amid a period of sluggish economic growth.

“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member.

Subscriber+


Related Articles

How Safe Would We Be Without Section 702?

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — A provision of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that has generated controversy around fears of the potential for abuse has proven to be crucial […] More

Search

Close