Meanwhile, intelligence gathered from the compound may lend clues as to the organization's vision for growth and plans to re-establish a caliphate, as well as whether there were efforts underway to reconcile with other terrorist organizations.
President Donald Trump announced Sunday morning that U.S. Commandos had pinned al-Baghdadi down in a tunnel after storming the ISIS leader’s secret hideout in northwestern Syria.
The President, in a nationally-televised address, said that al-Baghdadi was armed with a suicide vest and had taken three children with him as he was chased down the tunnel by military dogs adding that he was “whimpering and crying and screaming all the way” before detonating his vest.
What does al-Baghdadi’s death mean for the future of ISIS, which began as an al-Qaeda offshoot, with an aggressive goal of creating a caliphate across a large portion of the Iraq and Syria? And how is al Qaeda likely to respond to the ISIS leader's death?
Background Brief:
- There are believed to be an estimated 10,000 - 15,000 ISIS fighters scattered throughout Syria and Iraq
- ISIS, originally a splinter group of al Qaeda, became its own terrorist organization in April 2013
- Al Qaeda renounced ties with ISIS in early 2014
- ISIS became known for its savvy use of video and social media and used video to document the dramatic, brutal deaths - via beheadings and burnings - of those they deemed enemies
- ISIS’ stated goal was to create a caliphate that would span across parts of Iraq and Syria
- ISIS funded its activities through oil production, kidnappings and extortion
- At one point in 2014, ISIS controlled an estimated 34,000 square miles of territory
- In 2015, the U.S. State Department said ISIS posed a greater terrorist threat than al Qaeda
- By December 2017, the Iraqi military had retaken control of much of the area that ISIS had once commanded
- In March of 2019, ISIS lost is last footing in Syria, essentially ending the established caliphate
We spoke with Cipher Brief Experts Bruce Hoffman, professor at Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Norm Roule, who served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI and served more than 34 years at CIA.
We asked them what al-Baghdadi's death likely means for ISIS, al Qaeda and the region.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager, ODNI
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was not believed to have maintained direct operational control over ISIS’ activities worldwide, but the intelligence cache described by President Trump may provide a new understanding of his role, contacts, finances and plans. In addition, it will be interesting to learn how long Baghdadi was able to hide in territory so close to Turkey.
Bruce Hoffman, Terrorism Expert, Professor, Georgetown University
I think a lot depends on the rapidity with which a successor to al-Baghdadi is named—or not—and if that's even possible, on whether that in and of itself triggers internecine disputes, or succession rivalries, within ISIS. Al-Zawahiri in the past, has always held out the prospects for reunification and has called for an end to divisions in the Salafi-Jihadi movement, so it'll be interesting too to see what sort of response al-Qaeda issues to al-Baghdadi’s death.
Looking Ahead:
U.S. officials will be looking to decapitate what is left of the organization's leaders and will be looking at potential efforts by al Qaeda to attract ISIS fighters.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
ISIS is likely to continue, but the death of its founder and ideological leader will foster fractures in an organization already stressed by U.S. and Kurdish attacks. It continues to field more than 10,000 operatives in Syria but holds no physical territory and its funding has been severely curtailed. At some point, ISIS may become less of an organization and more of a band of loosely connected regional groups following a similar narrative of extremism albeit separate from al-Qaeda and al-Nusra.
Bruce Hoffman, Terrorism Expert, Professor, Georgetown University
I don't want to imply either that a re-amalgamation or reunification is at all linear or pre-destined, I just think it's a very plausible outcome right now because many of the remaining senior ISIS commanders are themselves former Baathists or former Saddam Hussein loyalists, so these people are the archetypal survivors and they're going to look to ensure the longevity of the struggle that they've been engaged in since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, without necessarily being adverse to some rapprochement with al-Qaeda.
Read a brief from Cipher Brief Expert Norm Roule in The Regional Impact of al-Baghdadi's Death
Read a brief from Cipher Brief Expert Bruce Hoffman in What ISIS Leader's Death Could Mean for Al Qaeda
Read more expert insights and analysis in The Cipher Brief
