Cipher Brief Expert Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, to include IC engagement on Iran issues with senior policy makers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
The Cipher Brief: Strategically, what does al-Baghdadi’s death mean for ISIS?
Roule: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was not believed to have maintained direct operational control over ISIS’ activities worldwide, but the intelligence cache described by President Trump may provide a new understanding of his role, contacts, finances and plans. In addition, it will be interesting to learn how long Baghdadi was able to hide in territory so close to Turkey. ISIS is likely to continue, but the death of its founder and ideological leader will foster fractures in an organization already stressed by U.S. and Kurdish attacks. It continues to field more than 10,000 operatives in Syria but holds no physical territory and its funding has been severely curtailed. At some point, ISIS may become less of an organization and more of a band of loosely connected regional groups following a similar narrative of extremism albeit separate from al-Qaeda and al-Nusra.
The Cipher Brief: How might his death be viewed by Iran?
Roule: Although a variety of published reports have described Iran’s contacts with al-Qaeda which protect Iran from its operations, ISIS has conducted large scale attacks on Iranian territory. Any action which diminishes ISIS will be welcomed by Tehran.
The Cipher Brief: What would you expect to happen in Iraq in the near term?
Roule: Iraqi security forces will need to continue a focus on the northwest of their country. Some of those ISIS operatives who escaped from camps in Syria will attempt to hide in this area. Looking more broadly, I think the U.S. and its regional and European partners will need to discuss how to spot ISIS foreign operatives attempting to return to their home countries. However, the U.S. decision to withdraw from Syria has further complicated an already complex relationship with Iraq.
The U.S. is fortunate that Ambassador Jim Jeffrey remains in place. Few officials have his experience, gravitas, and sense of history. Nonetheless, the coming weeks will test his talents as never before. I wish him every success.
The Cipher Brief: How significant is this killing to the U.S. mission to defeat ISIS? A number of ISIS prisoners were thought to have escaped detention facilities in northeastern Syria earlier this month.
Roule: Baghdadi represented an irreplaceable icon of ISIS, but it is unclear whether his death will have a significant impact on ISIS operations. More important will be our ability to continue close cooperation with the Kurds, as well ask the Iraqi government, to develop intelligence on future ISIS threats.
Although no doubt many sources of information went into this operation, it is clear that Kurdish and Iraqi partners made important contributions. It is ironic that this historic success – which will be a high point in the Trump presidency – came so soon after the decision to pull U.S. forces from Syria.
Looking abroad, the international community’s approach to ISIS in Afghanistan, Yemen, and Libya will likely continue on current paths. U.S. and regional intelligence will seek to identify Baghdadi’s successor as well as those who try to revitalize ISIS in the wake of his death. I suspect these individuals will need to have a higher profile and regular communications with subordinates in order to be effective. If so, it is likely that they will have a relatively short life span.
The Cipher Brief: What does this operation say about U.S. regional capabilities?
Roule: The relationship between the U.S. intelligence community and special forces is mature and sophisticated. This operation likely drew on years of analysis and collection by multiple agencies in the IC as well as the contributions of a handful of European and regional partners. The complexity of this operation – as seen in the make-up of the personnel on the eight helicopters involved in the operation as described by the president – was extraordinary. The number of moving pieces involved in the diplomatic, intelligence, military, and policy community behind this operation – while still keeping it secret – was no doubt significant. It is likely that only the U.S. is able to bring such an architecture against such targets. In a year when bad news has been so common, the professionalism and extraordinary success of this operation shows why every American – and our friends overseas – should be proud of the IC, our war fighters, and our diplomats.
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