DeTrani also served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence.
The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report April 2020 is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer.
Asia
The United States and the Taliban coordinated and agreed on conditions for a peace plan while reducing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. In China, the United States and China continue to place restrictions on each other’s media outlets and journalists. In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte terminated the US-Philippine Defense Pact after the United States refused renewal of a visa. In Taiwan, Chinese military drills increased in the region causing Taiwan and the United States to increase their own drills and patrols.
Cipher Brief Expert Analysis
CHINA
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea
U.S.-China relations are tense, especially now, with the tragedy of Covid-19. China apparently knew of the Corona virus in Wuhan in late November 2019 but waited until January 23, 2020 before locking down Wuhan. In late December, Dr. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at the Wuhan Central Hospital, warned his colleagues of a SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) type disease in Wuhan. For that, Dr. Li was arrested for making false statements. Dr. Li died in early February, from Covid-19.
On December 31, 2019, China informed the World Health Organization (WHO) of “Wuhan pneumonia cases of unknown origin” and on January 21, 2020 advised that there was human-to-human transmission. On January 30, 2020, the WHO declared a public health emergency. So, probably for political reasons, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) waited an extended period before declaring an emergency.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman, Li Jianzhao, had accused the U.S. of bringing Covid-19 to Wuhan and, using social media, claimed that the virus may have originated in the U.S. This type of disinformation, disseminated from a government official, no doubt had the support of the leadership. Russia and Iran have further disseminated these blatant lies. So, resolving some of these issues with China, while China still refuses to permit the CDC to visit to discuss Covid-19, are issues of immediate concern if we want improved bilateral relations.
Moving forward with the trade agreement with China, and implementing the first phase, with China purchasing $250 million in agricultural goods, is a positive first step. Further progress with the trade agreement and other related trade issues would be significant. Other issues, like the militarization of the islands in the South China Sea, intellectual property theft and treatment of the Uighurs will also require greater attention.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other economic initiatives may have a geopolitical agenda which, currently, is of concern to many of the countries who have signed-on to these programs. Xi Jinping’s “Made in China 2025” and other pronouncements are a clear manifestation of his intent to make China a regional and global superpower, displacing the U.S.
NORTH KOREA
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea
North Korea will continue to build nuclear weapons and sophisticated missiles, despite Kim Jung-Un's relatively friendly relationship with President Donald Trump and their two summits. In March 2020, North Korea launched nine short range ballistic missiles. We’ll see more launches but, hopefully, not another nuclear test, at least not until Pyongyang knows the result of the November election.
North Korea claims they have no COVID-19 cases, even though they share a 900-mile border with China. And given the poor public health system in North Korea, the COVID-19 pandemic could devastate the country, killing hundreds of thousands or more of its people. Kim Jung-un’s reluctance to admit any COVID-19 cases is similar to the behavior of his father, Kim Jung-il, who in the 1990s refused to admit and ask for food aid when millions of North Koreans died from starvation. The sense at that time, and possibly now with Covid-19, is that both Kims didn’t want the Korean people to know that their leaders couldn’t provide them with the food, and now, with the medical assistance necessary to protect the people. A pandemic like Covid-19, if unchecked in North Korea, could have political ramifications for the leadership.
North Korea will continue to look to China for economic and political support. Over 90% of the North’s trade is with China and over 90% of its crude oil and petroleum products come from China, thus China is the North’s life support system. To regain any momentum in negotiations with North Korea for denuclearization purposes will require the support and encouragement of China. And given the tense relationship the U.S. has with China, it’s questionable whether China will now use its influence in line with U.S. objectives.
TIMELINE
TRENDING: Afghanistan: Taliban and United States Agree to Peace Deal
- February 14: After almost two years of holding talks, the United States and the Taliban negotiate a proposal for a peace deal. DW
- February 17: The United States and Taliban officially agree to a reduction in violence agreement for one week with no set date. Associated Press
- February 21: United States and the Taliban announce that the one-week reduction in violence will begin February 22. NPR
- February 29: The United States and Taliban agree to a peace deal with the United States pledging to remove all troops from the country within 14 months if the Taliban holds its side of the agreement. BBC
- March 12: President Ashraf Ghani signed a decree for the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners according to terms of the peace deal and the remaining prisoners will be released on a bimonthly basis; however, the Taliban reject this decree saying that negotiations will be stalled until all prisoners are released. France 24
- March 16: The Afghan government delays prison release in order to review the list of 5,000 Taliban prisoners who were requested to be released. Al Jazeera
- March 24: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Afghanistan to help move forward peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Military Times
- March 24: The Taliban and Afghan officials held talks over a video conference to discuss details of the prisoner release, marking the first meeting between the two sides since the signing of the peace deal. Reuters
- March 30: The Taliban announced that it would not talk to the Afghan government’s negotiation on the basis that the team did not represent all parties involved in the peace deal process. The Guardian Reuters
- April 1: In preparation of the prisoner release, the Taliban sent a three-member team to Kabul to assist with identification and transport of the prisoners. Reuters
TRENDING: China: Tit for Tat with United States over Journalists and Media Outlets
- February 2: China revokes press credentials from three The Wall Street Journal journalists, after they criticized the Chinese government. BBC The New York Times South China Morning Post
- February 19: U.S. State Department classifies five Chinese media outlets foreign missions and require these media outlets to provide all information related to their employees working in the United States. ABC News Reuters
- March 2: The United States announces that it will reduce the number of Chinese journalists in the United States from 160 to 100. The Hindu
- March 3: Chinese foreign minister spokesman Zhao Lijian during a speech suggested that Beijing will retaliate against the restrictions placed on its U.S. media outlets. Spokesman Zhao said, “The Americans broke the rules of the game first, and we have to follow.” The South China Morning Post
- March 18: China revokes press credentials from 13 American journalists working for The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. BBC News
- March 28: Taiwan says expelled American journalists from China are welcomed to work in Taiwan. Asia Times
TRENDING: Philippines: Defense Pact with the United States Terminated
- January 23: President Duterte threatens U.S. military agreement if the United States does not renew the visa of Ronaldo dela Rosa within one month. NBC News Stars and Stripes
- February 12: President Duterte officially terminated the U.S.-Philippine military agreement. The Guardian NPR
- February 12: United States President Donald Trump announced that he does not mind the termination of the defense pact since the United States has already aided the Philippines in combating ISIS. Reuters
- February 27: President Duterte makes a speech emphasizing that the Filipino military is capable of combating terrorism without U.S. aid. Military Times
TRENDING: Taiwan: China, the United States, and Taiwan Posture with Military Movements
- February 10: Taiwan monitors Chinese fighter jets patrolling in the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait while Beijing claims the fighter jets are part of encirclement drills. South China Morning Post Taiwan News
- February 11: Taiwan intercepts Chinese fighter jets, which crossed the Taiwan Strait and views these drills to be a threat. Al Jazeera South China Morning Post
- March 18: Taiwan warns off Chinese jets, which almost entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. The Japan Times
- March 18:USS McCampbell travels through Taiwan Strait while being monitored by Taiwanese military. Al Jazeera
- March 19: The U.S. Navy conducts live fire drills to test China’s military new advance systems. South China Morning Post
- March 26: Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman released a statement calling the USS McCampbell’s transit through the Taiwan Strait “very dangerous.” USNI News
- March 27: Taiwan stages large-scaled military drills following Chinese warplane activity near Taiwan. A U.S. warship also sailed through the Taiwan Strait while being monitored by Taiwan. South China Morning Post
The Cipher Brief’s OSINT Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI
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