The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI.
Asia
News around China continued to dominate the region last quarter along with the United States degrading relationship with North Korea and the resumption of peace talks in Afghanistan. China commissioned its first domestically built aircraft carrier while Western nations seem to be following the United States’ lead by diminishing Huawei’s role in 5G development. Additionally, the United States agreed to a trade deal with China and put the Chinese owned TikTok app under a national security review. The situation remains complex in Afghanistan as Zalmay Khalilzad restarted peace talks with the Taliban in the midst of a document dump outlining American missteps. Lastly, North Korea resumed development and testing of missile technologies, as their relationship with the United States appeared to deteriorate.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani is former special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO), as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He later served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Director, National Counterproliferation Center
"Despite the progress made with China on trade issues, with the January 15 signing of the "phase one" trade deal with China, and the removal of China from the list of currency manipulating countries, there remains concern that implementation of this partial trade agreement will be difficult to monitor, with a significant number of ongoing tariffs still operative until a "phase two" agreement, which will require even more difficult negotiations, is reached. In addition to ongoing trade dispute with China, other issues are affecting bilateral relations, to include: Banning Huawei from the U.S., China's militarization of islands in the South China Sea, intellectual property theft, restricted market access, the harsh treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang, developments in Hong Kong, recent election in Taiwan, lack of transparency on China's military modernization program and a myriad of other irritants affecting relations. These and other issues will require even greater effort on the part of Beijing and Washington to resolve or at least come to some agreement on how these issues will be dealt with, so as to not to contribute to a further deterioration of bilateral relations, which are at a low point."
"North Korea's leader, Kim Jung Un, at the December Plenum of the Party Congress, made it clear that the North will resume its nuclear and missile programs, while continuing to focus on economic development," said DeTrani. "Kim did, however, leave the door open for continued negotiations with the U.S., noting that although his relationship with President Trump was still friendly, North Korea demanded that the U.S. be more responsive to the North and change its calculus for negotiations, if they expect negotiations to resume. Pyongyang has taken this more negative approach since the failure of the Hanoi Summit, when the North proposed the suspension of activities at their Yongbyan nuclear facility, in return for the lifting of sanctions. The Summit ended abruptly when the U.S. would not agree to this proposal and countered with a more comprehensive suspension of all nuclear and missile programs, to include the North's uranium enrichment program. Since that failed Summit, and a subsequent brief DMZ meeting of Trump and Kim and a meeting in Stockholm between the lead negotiators from the U.S. and North Korea, which also ended in failure, North Korea has launched over a dozen sophisticated short range ballistic missiles, while criticizing the U.S. and threatening to cease negotiations if the U.S. doesn't comply with their demand. It's likely that we'll have at least one working level meeting with the North in 2020. This would permit both sides to determine if continued denuclearization talks are still viable. Although China and Russia want North Korea to denuclearize, they believe the U.S. should be more flexible on the issue of sanction relief for the North, to reciprocate for positive denuclearization moves from the North."
Afghanistan: Peace Talks Resume and United States Mulls Further Troop Drawdown
- October 5: Taliban officials met with American envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Pakistan for the first time since President Donald Trump canceled a meeting scheduled for Camp David last month. The New York Times TIME The Washington Post
- October 21: The United States reduced its troop level by 2,000 soldiers over the last year the commander of U.S. and NATO forces said. “Unbeknownst to the public as part of our optimization … we reduced our authorized strength by 2,000 here,” the general said. Currently, 13,000 remaining troops are deployed in Afghanistan. The Washington Post
- October 29: Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib said the Taliban must declare a one-month ceasefire before the start of peace talks to prove that the Taliban leaders have control over the group. Ava Press Dawn The New York Times
- December 8: The Washington Post released a trove of U.S. government documents outlining mistakes and cover-ups concerning the conflict in Afghanistan. The Washington Post
- December 11: The Taliban attacked a medical facility outside the southern portion of Bagram Airfield killing two people and wounding at least 73. A car bomb penetrated the medical facility and the ensuing attack lasted 12 hours. The perimeter of the base was not breached. Al Jazeera Military Times The New York Times
- December 16: Senator Lindsey Graham said U.S. troops could be reduced to 8,600 beginning after the new year. Military Times
- December 19:S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said he would like to see a drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to focus on other missions. “I would like to go down to a lower number because I want to either bring those troops home, so they can refit and retrain for other missions or/and be redeployed to the Indo-Pacific to face off our greatest challenge in terms of the great power competition that’s vis-a-vis China,” Esper said. Military Times
China: Controversy Continues over Huawei and the Development of 5G
- November 6: The United States stated it worries China could use its edge in 5G wireless technology to create “two different internets,” according to the U.S. FCC chairman. The end result being a U.S.-China split with a highly censored version created by the Chinese. South China Morning Post
- November 20: The Commerce Department announced that it has eased some export restrictions that will allow some U.S. suppliers to resume shipping to Huawei. The Wall Street Journal
- December 3: At least eight Russian universities and research centers have announced partnership with Huawei in the last six months as the Chinese tech company looks to replace lost U.S. partnerships. South China Morning Post
- December 8: The Chinese government has ordered all foreign computer equipment to be removed from government offices within three years. The move is similar to U.S. action to rid the government of Chinese equipment and the U.S. ban on Huawei. The Guardian
- December 11: Telefonica Deutschland announced it will partner with Huawei and Nokia to build 5G in Germany pending security certification. DW South China Morning Post
- December 16: Germany says security concerns will determine whether or not to allow Huawei to be part of its 5G infrastructure. Bloomberg
- December 19: Spanish telecommunication firm Telefonica announced it will reduce its purchases from Huawei citing concerns over Chinese espionage. Huawei purchases will continue to decrease “until they disappear around 2024.” Japan Times
China: First Domestically Built Aircraft Carrier Put into Service and Changes Made to SCS Training
- October 29: Satellite imagery of the Jiangnan Shipyard shows China’s production of its Type 002 class aircraft carrier. China expects to have five or six large carriers in service by 2030. Business Insider Economic Times
- November 17: China sailed a carrier group, including the new Type 002, through the Strait of Taiwan. DW Navy Times Japan Times
- December 16: Chinese state media reports Beijing has altered its South China Sea training from “passive to proactive” to prepare for “unexpected confrontations.” South China Morning Post
- December 17: China commissioned the Shandongi in a ceremony at a Chinese naval base in Sanya on the southern island of Hainan. Asia Times CNA The Japan Times The New York Times Nikkei Asian Review South China Morning Post
- December 19: Beijing’s Naval and Merchant Ships magazine reported that China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier would be used in tandem with the Soviet era carrier for military operations concerning Taiwan. International Business Times South China Morning Post
China: TikTok Undergoes Security Review in the United States
- November 4: TikTok, a Chinese owned platform, has come under a national security review. Military Times
- December 16: In response to the national security review a TikTok spokesperson said that the company “has made clear that we have no higher priority than earning the trust of users and regulators in the U.S. Part of that effort includes working with Congress.” CNBC
- December 23: The U.S. Navy directed its personnel to delete the TikTok app from government supplied devices. The decision was based on “national security assessments.” USA Today
China: Phase One Trade Deal Agreed to with the United States
- October 12: President Donald Trump said he hoped a phase one deal would be finalized in November. CNN NPR South China Morning Post The Wall Street Journal
- November 6: French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the agreement to several trade deals in Beijing worth $15 billion that cover aeronautics, energy, and agriculture. DW France 24 South China Morning Post
- December 8: Chinese Exports fell in November, reaching 12 months of decline. Exports were down slightly more than 1 percent from last year, and exports to the United States fell 23 percent. BBC
- December 12: President Donald Trump approved the terms of a trade deal between the United States and China that will end some tariffs on China and increase China’s purchase of U.S. agricultural products. BBC The Wall Street Journal
- December 14: The U.S.-China trade deal is expected to be signed in early January. “This is totally done. Absolutely,” the U.S. trade representative said. CNBC The Wall Street Journal
China: Hong Kong Protests Continue, Reaching Six Months of Unrest
- October 23: Hong Kong formally withdrew the controversial extradition bill that sparked the protests. BBC Channel News Asia CNBC TIME
- October 24: Vice President Mike Pence criticized U.S. businesses and the NBA for failing to speak against the Chinese government regarding protests in Hong Kong. Foreign Policy NPR USA Today
- October 31: China released a plan to “safeguard national security” concerning the protests in Hong Kong. The plan was constructed during a four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee. The New York Times South China Morning Post
- November 19: The U.S. Senate passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. The support would come in the form of sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials who commit human rights abuses during the protests. The New York Times
- November 21: China threatens to enact countermeasures against the United States if President Trump does not veto the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Al Jazeera CNN South China Morning Post
- November 25: Pro-democracy candidates made large gains in District Council elections. Public broadcasting called the election a “staggering victory for the pro-democracy camp.” CNN
- December 8: About 800,000 protesters took to the streets as the protests reach six months. Al Jazeera DW South China Morning Post
North Korea: Tensions Persist with the United States as Missile Development Continues
- October 10: North Korea’s Foreign Ministry released a statement warning that nuclear testing and long-range missile tests could resume. Al Jazeera The Hill
- October 21: China and South Korea agreed to a joint effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. “China’s constructive role, along with South Korea’s efforts, is crucial for the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the establishment of a permanent peace,” South Korea’s Defense Ministry said. South China Morning Post
- October 26: North Korea said it is growing impatient with the United States’ recent diplomatic actions on nuclear talks and set an end-of-the-year deadline to reach an agreement. The Guardian Japan Times TIME
- November 13: The North Korean government warned the United States that planned exercises with the South Korean military would damage its relationship. The U.S. and South Korean militaries routinely conduct joint exercises. Al Jazeera The Hill
- November 17: Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced that joint exercises with South Korea will be cancelled. Esper said the cancellation was not a concession to North Korea, but rather a “decision as an act of goodwill to contribute to an environment conducive to diplomacy and the advancement of peace.” NBC News The Washington Post
- November 18: North Korea’s Foreign Ministry adviser Kim Kye Gwan released a statement saying that North Korea does not want to hold “useless” meetings with the United States. The statement comes a day after President Donald Trump posted a tweet directed toward Kim Jung Un saying “see you soon” suggesting another potential U.S.-North Korea summit. ABC News Al Jazeera CNN Global News
- November 21: Pyongyang announced that Kim Jung Un will not be attending the ASEAN Summit, saying his attendance would be “pointless.” Korea Times Reuters
- November 25: An artillery drill ordered by Kim Jung Un occurred on the west coast of North and South Korea. The drill took place while Kim was inspecting a military unit on Changrin Islet. The New York Times Stars and Stripes
- December 1: North Korea launched two rockets from Yonpo, a city on its east coast, according to South Korea. The rockets traveled approximately 236 miles before splashing into waters between North Korea and Japan. Military Times Stars and Stripes
- December 7: North Korea announced a “very important test.” Analysts said North Korea likely conducted a ground-based test of an engine for a ballistic missile. BBC DW The New York Times
- December 14: North Korea announced it had conducted a “crucial test” for nuclear deterrence, however it was unclear as to what the test was. BBC The Washington Post
- December 23: Imagery reveals the construction of a long-range missile construction facility possibly responsible for developing mobile missile launchers. ABC News The Hill
The Cipher Brief’s OSINT Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI
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