Europe’s migration crisis is often framed in terms of the influx of refugees coming from Syria, Afghanistan, and other conflict countries in the Middle East. However, there is also a large number of African migrants that travel across the Mediterranean Sea to Lampedusa, an Italian island, and then onto Europe. The Cipher Brief’s Kaitlin Lavinder discussed this migration pattern and Europe’s response with International Organization for Migration (IOM) Spokesperson Leonard Doyle.
The Cipher Brief: Is there substantive migration from African countries to Europe?
Leonard Doyle: There are very large numbers of people moving as irregular migrants, and many are going through Lampedusa. That route remains open because Syria remains in crisis. The migrants are coming essentially from West Africa, and the majority are not necessarily entitled to asylum.
Asylum is decided on a case by case basis, and you need to establish a strong case that you are fleeing persecution or violence to fit into the 1951 UN Refugee Convention. Many of those coming through do not fit that criteria. It is not to say that they are not vulnerable people or not deserving of protection or needing protection, but in terms of the strict refugee architecture of the world, they typically are not entitled to it.
TCB: What happens when these migrants from West Africa make it to Italy, for example?
LD: Many will claim asylum, and their cases will be processed probably fairly rapidly. Many will be denied. They will be told fairly quickly that they do not have a strong case, and then based on that, quite often they simply disappear. They know in advance what to expect, so they go into the underground of Europe. Many of them end up exploited, working long hours, and not living or making the dream they hoped for.
TCB: Are a majority of the migrants staying in Italy, or are they dispersing throughout Europe?
LD: It’s hard to say. A large number of them have indeed intended to make their way through and head into Europe, but that’s increasingly difficult. The policing is getting more intense.
TCB: Can you put this in perspective – are there a lot more migrants coming from the Middle East, specifically Syria, or are there equivalent numbers coming from Africa?
LD: Let’s be careful here not to confuse migrants and refugees. There are around 240 million migrants in the world, and 50 million of those are refugees, that is people who are being forcibly displaced.
Those coming from Syria are refugees, they are from refugee-producing countries. Broadly speaking, about one percent of those coming through from Africa seem to be persuading the authorities that they are entitled to refugee status.
TCB: Europe is engaging in agreements with countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria, similar to what the EU has done with Turkey, in order to stem the flow of people traveling to Europe. Can you talk about some of these agreements and whether you think they will work?
LD: There is a lot of pressure now and a lot of initiatives from European governments to ensure that the people coming through from Africa, the overwhelming majority of whom are probably not entitled to asylum, does not become a systemic flow, along the lines that you have seen in the United States. Governments are working on multiple levels to increase border security and increase border management; help the development of these countries by bringing in the private sector and trying to create jobs; and help persuade people that it is not necessarily in their interests to make the journey because it puts themselves at great economic – not to mention physical – risk.
The number of people coming through is only a little bit higher than last year, but the number of deaths is much higher – at about 3,000. People are dying on route, and they are not getting to a place which would be of much value or use for them, unfortunately for them.
TCB: It seems like Europe is working on addressing the root causes of the migration problem in Africa, whereas in Syria, for example, Europe is more concerned with just stopping the large numbers of people crossing the border. Is that accurate?
LD: I would not categorize it like that. The issue with Syria is that there was a huge current of people walking into Europe, many from refugee-producing countries. The European governments were caught. By law, they had to produce an avenue for people to come through, but at the same time, it was heavily destabilizing European politics, as we can see in recent elections.
They managed to come up with a solution because Turkey is a member of NATO and has centralized authority. By providing Turkey with the resources – $7 billion – they have been able to come to an agreement to staunch the flow and make sure refugees on the move are looked after. And they sought to recreate an avenue for resettlement within Europe, for a certain number of refugees.
In the case of Lampedusa, Libya is a failing state—there’s no central authority—so the Europeans have not been able to reach a coherent agreement with Libya. Although there is a lot of pressure now, especially militarily, to stop the smugglers, and economically as well, to help Libya get back on its feet.
TCB: Is there a conflict of interest with Europe working with some of these countries – Sudan, for example – that have undemocratic, authoritarian regimes?
LD: I think on the contrary. We have got to work with governments all around the world to make societies more transparent, provide better governance, and help with the building blocks of creating sustainable countries where people have a stake in the country. The reason people are leaving is because the countries are, in some cases, authoritarian. Let’s help these countries get their act together, and that’s essentially the policy. Quite the opposite to a conflict of interest, there is an absolute self-interest in helping these countries behave, grow, and provide a future for their citizens.
