The United States and its allies believed their policy of “strategic patience” would allow them to wait for North Korea to denuclearize on its own, assuming sanctions and international pressure would ultimately force Pyongyang’s hand. However, five years later, with the most recent test of a nuclear bomb and the subsequent long-range rocket launch, the Americans are losing their patience—and they’re not the only ones.
North Korea has launched a nuclear test every three or four years since 2006. Its fourth occurred in January 2016 and was claimed by Pyongyang to be a more powerful hydrogen bomb, though experts have their doubts.
More directly threatening to the United States is the reported successful launch of a long-range rocket, which could potentially be weaponized and reach as far as California.
The recent provocations from Kim Jong-un prompted the implementation of the tightest sanctions ever placed on the DPRK. Under the new UN Sanctions, countries must inspect all sea and air cargo going into and coming out of North Korea to ensure that contraband items, such as luxury goods and nuclear material, are not making their way into the DPRK.
In true North Korean fashion, the sanctions were acknowledged by Pyongyang with the firing of two short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast.
Experts remain skeptical on how effective the sanctions will ultimately be. Sanctions are most compelling in countries where the public has the ability to place pressure on leadership. Though the official name of the country is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the country is ruled by the authoritarian dictator, Kim Jong-un. Additionally, the North Korean people are used to living with little means, so sanctions would only marginally decrease their quality of life. The North Korean economy is also almost entirely domestic, with little international trade and a significant flow of goods occurring on the black market.
The key to the success of any sanctions on North Korea remains in the hands of China—which accounts for about 70 percent of North Korea’s trade. North Korea exports $2.5 billion each year to China, who in turn supplies North Korea with oil and other goods. North Korea also plays an important geostrategic role for China. Baohui Zhang, Director for the Center for Asian Pacific Studies in Hong Kong, told The Cipher Brief that China “prefers to have a security buffer in the Korean Peninsula to insulate itself from direct military security challenges from the United States. This geostrategic logic of China’s Korean Peninsula strategy inevitably motivates Beijing to try to maintain the status quo in the Peninsula, which implies continuous economic aid to the Pyongyang regime to sustain its survival,”
Beijing’s support of UN sanctions—which were co-drafted by China and the United States—marked an important, and surprising, adherence to Chinese traditional policy towards North Korea: “No war, no instability, no nukes.” China’s patience with North Korea is also wearing thin, but while the sanctions are generally considered tough, they are not tough enough to enact regime change—likely the only solution to the North Korea problem.
“Recognizing that the regime is the problem leads to what may be an uncomfortable conclusion: the United States and its partners must contain North Korea in the near-term while pursuing a longer term policy of regime change,” American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Mazza told The Cipher Brief. What to do about Kim Jong-un poses a challenge for the United States, which hasn’t had the most positive experience with promoting regime change.
In an exclusive interview with The Cipher Brief, Defense Intelligence Agency Director, Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart said, “Kim Jong-un knows exactly what he’s doing, because he always walks right up to the line. If he were crazy he would cross the line. I don’t understand why he does some of the things he does. If you are interested in regime survival, why would you provoke the most powerful military force on earth? Because if you launch a nuclear device towards the United States, you’re regime isn’t going to survive.”
With Kim’s claim over the weekend that he could “wipe out” Manhattan, its clear the North Korea problem isn’t going away on its own anytime soon. As President Barack Obama’s term comes to a close, dealing with Kim Jong-un and working with China are likely to pose great challenges for the incoming U.S. President.
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
