CIPHER BRIEF INTEL REPORT — During a recent visit to Kyiv centered around The Cipher Brief’s Kyiv Economic and Security Forum, a small Cipher Brief delegation met with a variety of representatives from government, business, and civil society, who conveyed a consistent and compelling message of unity and determination to win the war that Russia started in 2014 with the invasion of Crimea, and since February 24, 2022, when it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Paul Kolbe, Former member, CIA's Senior Intelligence Service
Paul Kolbe is former director of The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Kolbe also led BP’s Global Intelligence and Analysis team supporting threat warning, risk mitigation, and crisis response. Kolbe served 25 years as an operations officer in the CIA, where he was a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, serving in Russia, the Balkans, Indonesia, East Germany, Zimbabwe, and Austria.
The delegation consisted of Cipher Brief Expert Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.), Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly, Cipher Brief COO Brad Christian, historian and author Lord Andrew Roberts, Russia Fellow Natalia Bugayova from the Institute for the Study of War, and myself.
The goal of The Cipher Brief forum was to engage in conversations with U.S. businesses and investors and their potential Ukrainian partners and government officials, to build concrete economic and technical support during the war and after. More than 50 US business professionals traveled to Kyiv to attend in person and to interact with approximately 80 Ukrainian guests from a variety of sectors.
Listen to General David Petraeus’ (Ret.) assessment of what is needed on the military front for Ukraine to succeed with its counteroffensive in this week’s State Secrets Podcast, available wherever you listen to podcasts.
Impressions
We travelled to and from Kyiv via the train from Poland. The wagons were immaculate, carriages full, and timing precise. We heard later from the former head of Ukrainian Railways, that huge efforts are being made to maintain and even raise standards of service despite wartime conditions under the slogan “war is no excuse.” The train takes about 14 hours, with another 3 hours for the drive to the Ukrainian border from Warsaw. It is also possible to drive to Kyiv, but delays at border checkpoints can run to hours. Miles-long-lines of semi-trucks were visible on each side of the border as they waited to cross.
Despite daily air raid sirens and missile attacks, Kyiv had a remarkable sense of normality. Amid sunny and warm weather, sidewalks were full of pedestrians, cafes, and restaurants open, and stores were well stocked and busy. While there was a security presence around government buildings or sensitive locations, it was not obvious nor heavy handed. Statues are sandbagged and boarded for protection, but cathedrals, museums, and theaters are all open and accessible. I was surprised at the number of military age males not in uniform. Families with kids and infants were in parks and green areas. One of the few impositions on normal life is that bars are required to stop serving alcohol at 10 pm given the 11 pm curfew. Unexpectedly, we ran into traffic jams caused by the sheer volume of civilian traffic, not from disruption, document checks, or war damage.
Kyiv’s streets were full of cars and the sidewalks full of pedestrians, giving evidence to the statistics we were quoted from various sources on Kyiv’s population trends. According to Mayor Vladimir Klitschko, at the start of the war, Kyiv had 3,800,000 residents. Within weeks after fighting began, that number had dwindled to 800,000 as 3,000,000 residents fled the city. After the successful defense of the city in the Battle of Kyiv, and the end of Russia’s winter 2023 campaign to starve and freeze the population with attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the population has rebounded to 3,600,000. This remarkable return of residents includes approximately 350,000 refugees from Russian occupied territories in the East. Shelter, food, and social support for these displaced persons places a heavy financial and logistical burden on the city administration.
Kyiv citizens and residents have quickly become accustomed to what has become a nightly round of Russian cruise and ballistic missile attacks on the city. Cell phone apps trigger a simultaneous chorus of chirps, rings, and wails whenever there is an air raid alert. The hotel PA system also announces alerts, advising guests to seek shelter in basement bunkers. Few bothered to heed the advice to move to the basement, a response likely triggered by Ukraine’s remarkable record of success in shooting down incoming warheads. While in Kyiv, there were attacks each night, along with two during daylight, a slight shift in the battle rhythm. The Russian attacks targeted Kyiv city center and outlying suburbs and they do not appear to be having much military effect, The impact on morale of the population is negligible. If anything, the air attacks serve as daily reminders of war in the capital and they have only stiffened the resolve to resist, and increasingly, to strike back.
On the day we left Kyiv, the Russians targeted the city with a combination of 38 Kaliber cruise missiles and Shahed drones, with Ukrainian air defense forces intercepting all. A commander of the northern air defense zone says the air defense crews are under relentless pressure. While the Shahed drones are reportedly destroyed using anti-aircraft gun fire, the expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles, including Patriots, must be significant. Given the negligible military effect of these air attacks, it is reasonable to conclude that the Russians are working to systematically deplete the limited Ukrainian supply of reloads, while simultaneous mapping and assessing the locations, methodologies, and capability of Ukrainian air defenses.
Battle of Kyiv
During visits to Bucha and Irpin, signs of war were far more visible. Blown bridges, rusting tank obstacles, manned checkpoints, and timbered bunkers all served to remind of the battle for Kyiv. Destroyed vehicles, civilian and military, are piled in various car parks. A few buildings showed the pockmarks of firefights. In Bucha, a makeshift memorial to massacred residents stand in the grassy field that became a makeshift mass grave behind the town’s orthodox church. Inside the spare, minimally ornamented sanctuary, a graphic display of photos on easels chronicles the atrocities what took place as the town was occupied by Russian troops, stalled on their failed drive to Kyiv.
We heard numerous assessments that the fate of Kyiv hung far more precariously than generally understood, with only an incredible mélange of Ukrainian grit and improvisation, and Russian mistakes and flaws, preventing concentrated Russian forces from reaching Kyiv’s center.
Among the first flashpoints, was the fight for Hostomel airport. Russian airborne troops fast-roping from helicopters, supported by helicopter gunships were initially able to take over the lightly defended fields, preparing the way for a follow-on force of airborne troops enroute with light armor in over 20 Antonov cargo aircraft. The Russian aircraft were enroute for landing when Ukrainian forces counterattacked the landing force, notably, with 203 mm artillery rounds which chewed up the first landing force and cratered the runways. Unable to land under fire on the destroyed runway, the follow-on force was compelled to turn back, and the initial assault units were destroyed.
The second key element in defending Kyiv from the initial Russian assault, was the unexpected entrance of territorial defense elements in the vicinity of Irpin. A brigade-size element of haphazardly armed and informally led Ukrainians literally sprung up and coalesced into irregular formations which provided intelligence, harassed Russian columns, and created confusion and danger for Russian forces. The information provided by these units enabled armor to target Russian command and control locations and to thwart river crossings. So unexpected was the rise of these units that the Ukrainian army had blown the Irpin bridge, believing the Russian invasion force was unopposed and the road to Kyiv open. Instead, the stubborn defense bought time for regular army units to get into position, themselves having narrowly missed destruction by leaving their headquarters just in advance of Russian strikes. The significance of intelligence in Kyiv’s defense cannot be overstated. On a side note, we heard several unconfirmed accounts that the local territorial defense commander had, unbeknownst to central authorities, systematically and clandestinely gathered and cached a significant armory against just such a contingency.
Finally, with the time bought by the defense of Irpin and Hostomel, the opening of Dnieper dams and the subsequent inundation of low-lying areas, effectively channeled and trapped advancing Russian armor columns. The iconic 60-kilometer-long traffic jam of Russian tanks, APC’s, fuel trucks, and personnel trucks was stalled and vulnerable because it had now where to turn.
Military Situation
Practically every conversation with a government or military officials during our visit turned quickly to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. While a range of views were expressed on the prospects of success, the most common expectation was that of significant territorial gains and heavy degradation of Russian capabilities, but at high cost. No one spoke in specifics, but a picture emerged of a southern-centered campaign to cut off the land bridge to Crimea, trap Russian forces, and take out the Kerch bridge. No Ukrainian official predicted a collapse of Russian forces, or of war ending “catastrophic success” from the counteroffensive.
Some Ukrainian officials offered a much more cautious assessment, confident in positive results, but acknowledging Russian preparations for defense in depth, of superior numbers and profligate expenditure of Russian lives. Ukraine military and intelligence professionals recognized that Russian forces have evolved and learned and remain a dangerous and capable adversary. Some Ukrainian soldiers pointed to the effectiveness of Russian counterbattery fire to target artillery teams and drone units. The Russians have proven good and are getting better tracing shells back their firing point, and drones back to point of departure, and then saturating associated grid squares in minutes. A deadly game of 3D chess surrounds every artillery fire or drone reconnaissance mission.
Every Ukrainian interlocutor understood the imperative for the counteroffensive to succeed in the eyes of domestic and western audiences. None, however, believed that a failure to meet high expectations for success would diminish Ukraine’s determination to take back all occupied areas. Ukraine is prepared for — and determined to — wage an extended struggle, to include inevitable setbacks. My belief is that those “real politikers” who think the West can pressure Ukraine to trade land for “peace” by pinching the jugular of equipment and finance flows simply do not understand what Russia’s invasion and war crimes have done to Ukraine’s collective psyche. It might be overstating it to compare Ukraine’s mindset with Jews after the holocaust, but then again, I don’t think so. Time and again I heard from civilians, soldiers, and officials “never again, this must be the last time.”
As if to underscore this determination to carry on no matter what, a consistent theme we heard is that Ukraine’s number one goal for economic development and investment is creation of self-sufficiency in arms and defense production. This self-sufficiency is seen as critical in sustaining a long war, and particularly as insurance against the West going wobbly in its appetite for support, but also to position Ukraine as a preferred partner for high-quality, battle-proven, defense products for global markets. Ukraine envisions serving as a manufacturing and R&D center for a post-war global arms market, but also able to supply parts and maintenance for holders of vast global stocks of Soviet/Russian kit, displacing Russia from that market. As for current needs, the country’s newly-named Minister of Strategic Industries Alexander Kamyshin outlined a very basic strategy for near term Ukrainian industrial production – ammunition (particularly artillery), anti-tank weapons, and armored vehicles. His simple calculus is that these are the bread-and-butter basics of this conflict, if he fails to supply these items, nothing else will matter. One metric highlights this focus – in May 2023 alone, Ukraine produced twice as many artillery shells as in all of 2022. And the production curve is rising. Kamyshin also noted that Ukraine is now producing NATO standard and caliber artillery tubes, as well as being able to repair and remount damaged or worn-out kit near the front lines.
Listen to General David Petraeus’ (Ret.) assessment of what is needed on the military front for Ukraine to succeed with its counteroffensive in this week’s State Secrets Podcast, available wherever you listen to podcasts.
The long-awaited and media-hyped counteroffensive is already underway, with initial shaping operations, deep strikes on supply depots and transportation nodes, and information operations all designed to mask the direction and nature of the coming ground assault. Some commentators (not Ukrainian) have described this as a “one shot” deal, Ukraine’s last and only chance to break the military stalemate and force Russia to the negotiating table. Ukraine is certainly not thinking in those terms. In Ukraine’s view, any success achieved in this counteroffensive will simply become the new foundation for whatever comes next. Granted, this push will come at a high cost, and any gains will have to be consolidated and defended. Simple math means that Ukraine will be hard pressed to exploit to the fullest a dramatic breakthrough or catastrophic Russia collapse. They simply don’t have the follow-on punch or resources.
The counteroffensive will be complex, is likely to evolve in distinct phases, and with a high degree of opacity and deception. While the main line of advance is likely to be in the direction of the Black Sea Coast towards Meliotopol, Ukraine is naturally keeping its cards close to the chest. Of note, the preponderance of Russian fortifications and forces also appear to be weighted in this direction.
There a lot of questions to be answered in the coming weeks and months. Will Ukraine attack into the teeth of these layered defenses? Will other locations be chosen? How will the newly created assault brigades — equipped with Leopards, Challengers and other new equipment — perform? How will these fresh forces, which have been held back from the front perform?
The answers to these questions will determine the outcome of this battle. Through Ukrainian views differed on just how successful the counteroffensive would be, a sense of determined confidence pervaded all conversations on the matter, summed up by the ultimate question of “What other choice do we have?”
Striking Russia
Congruent with the prevalent “never again” and “no other choice” sentiments, we picked up a strong and growing Ukrainian conviction that for the war to end, the war must come to Russia. In the last week of May, amid expectation of the beginning of the counteroffensive, there were drone strikes on the Rublyovka suburb of Moscow (home of Putin and Russian elites), militia attacks in Belgorod Oblast, and sabotage attacks in Crimea. Almost certainly, the number of operations taking place behind lines in occupied territory and in Russia itself, is higher than what is leaking into the press or being alleged by Russia. Queried on whether such attacks into Russia may increase Russia’s support for Putin or the war, some Ukrainians said they believe the attacks will undermine Putin’s aura of power and invincibility and could demonstrate to the populace that Russia’s so called “special military operation” is really a war that brings high cost.
But there is also a revenge factor at play. The mass graves of Bucha, the torture cells of Kherson, the kidnapping of 16,000 Ukrainian children, and daily accounts of new atrocities inflicted on Ukraine by the Russian army, have naturally fed deep and lasting anger. “Why should Russians sleep peacefully when they are doing this to us” is a question I heard repeatedly. While not a single Ukrainian interlocuter attributed or took credit for the attacks in Russia, no doubt was left that they would continue and would almost certainly increase.
Russia's Plan B
The topic of a halt to fighting with Russia still holding Ukrainian territory, came up in many forms, and never with a positive Ukrainian response. Whether termed a ‘pause’, a ‘ceasefire’, a ‘temporary halt’, or an ‘armistice’, the idea that Russia would be allowed to “rest, recover, rearm, and resume the war” was an anathema to Ukrainian interlocutors. At senior levels, there is a strong conviction that Russia’s Plan B in event of battlefield setback, is to persuade the world to accept a halt to fighting on lines in place, followed by discussions and peace talks which will drag out over years. In the meantime, Russia would replace losses, ramp up its military industrial base, rebuild finances, seek to splinter western resolve and alliances, and then resume the fight under cover of new provocations. It’s a familiar playbook.
NATO's Challenge
Not surprisingly, Ukrainian interlocuters were laser focused on the coming NATO Summit in Vilnius and the need for a firm commitment on a path to membership for Ukraine. The arguments were compelling. Ukraine is fighting a war to uphold core European values of freedom, human rights, and rule of law. Ukraine has shown itself to be a capable, adaptive, and highly innovative partner. Ukraine is already far down the path of integration with NATO standards, interoperability, and doctrine. Ukraine has a NATO-trained army. Ukraine will strengthen the alliance by becoming its third most capable force, one that is battle tested and trusted. Ukraine has paid the price of admission. Interlocutors also admitted that Ukraine is a work in progress and that further reform is sorely needed. But they pleaded that NATO not make ‘unattainable perfection’ the enemy of the good.
Follow Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly on LinkedIn and Twitter for exclusive behind-the-scenes images from the delegation’s visit to Kyiv.
The most vociferous and heartfelt argument of all was that without NATO membership, Ukraine will be doomed to repeat this fight. NATO has successfully deterred Soviet - and now Russian attack - on its citizens for 70 plus years. As a member of NATO, a new Russian war against Ukraine becomes unthinkable.
Politics on the U.S. Home Front
The world has been wowed by the demonstration of Ukrainian national unity and resolve in face of Russia’s invasion. President Zelensky has been an incredible leader and communicator who captured the admiration of the world and citizenry of Ukraine alike. More than one interlocutor noted that his refusal in the early hours of the war to leave Kyiv and to stay and fight, inspired all those resisting the invasion and bolstered the country’s determination to prevail. His approval ratings remain in the 80 to 90 percent range. But of course, underneath the blanket of national unity, political rivalries continue to play out. Interlocutors referred to numerous instances of jostling driven by jealousy and rivalry, though none saw it as detracting from the war effort. The noise of party politics is muted, but we saw clear signs of parties and personalities positioning for when the war is over.
Also of note, private citizens from all walks of life and sectors of the economy have stepped forward to serve in emergency government roles – a citizen’s army of public servants, just as the Ukrainian army is filled with bakers, bankers, lawyers, students, accountants, and every other profession. After the war, they will return to their jobs and supercharge the economy.
Bottom line: we saw a nation that is growing stronger, more confident, and more determined to defeat Russia. The nation is unified in the goal to expel Russia from what they unanimously call the “temporarily occupied territories” that include Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. They know this is likely to be a long struggle, and they are deeply grateful for the aid of the west, particularly that from the United States. At the same time, they are determined to become self-reliant and they see joining NATO and the EU as the clearest path to enduring peace and prosperity.
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