IARPA Director on Forecasting: Human-Machine Pairs Work Best

Defending and securing a nation and its people would be much easier if those tasked with the job were psychics, like the precogs in Steven Spielberg’s 2002 thriller Minority Report. Turns out, that futuristic reality may not be too far-fetched.

To that end, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) – founded just a decade ago – is trying to figure out how to predict the future. IARPA is like “the national science foundation for national intelligence […] we’re scientists and engineers who help support spies,” explains IARPA Director Jason Matheny. Think Q Branch from the James Bond series.

“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

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