EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — When Donald Trump's Ukraine envoy announced a 100-day plan to bring peace to Ukraine, just prior to inauguration day, the news was received with a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism. In Kyiv, Washington and various European capitals, some were relieved that Trump had abandoned his promise of a 24-hour solution to the war, which many feared would have meant concessions to Russia and the imposition of a solution on Ukraine. Others said the timetable was still too ambitious, and questioned whether Russian President Vladimir Putin was interested in negotiations that would involve concessions.
Details of a U.S. approach have emerged via the Trump envoy, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who has floated several potential elements: stiffer sanctions against Russia; a boost in American oil and gas production to lower global energy prices and thus lower Russian revenues; security guarantees for Ukraine short of immediate NATO membership; and a freezing in place of some Russian territorial gains in Ukraine, but without formal recognition – leaving the fate of those lands to future negotiation. Meanwhile, President Trump himself says he is planning to meet with Putin in the near future.
This week, Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke with Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a former Prime Minister of Ukraine and founder of the Open Ukraine Foundation, about the 100-day plan and the hopes and concerns it has produced in his country.
Yatsenyuk went so far as to say the fate not just of Ukraine but the rest of the “free world” rests with President Trump. “It's up to him to decide the future of Ukraine, the future of the global order, and the future – strong or weak – of the United States.”
Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
The Cipher Brief: When you heard, just a couple of weeks ago, that the [Trump] administration had this 100-day plan to bring peace to your country, what were your initial reactions?
Yatsenyuk: I am not sure about the deadline – and in my humble opinion, that's not an issue. The issue is the terms and conditions of this so-called “peace deal.” And the most important question is whether the war criminal Putin is ready to negotiate. I'm extremely skeptical about his eagerness to negotiate a just, fair and right peace for the Ukrainian people. My gut feeling is that this war criminal is trying to take over Ukraine and that this is his ultimate goal, to absorb Ukraine and to reshape the global order. The primary goal we have in Ukraine is to reach a fair and just peace. The quicker the better, but it's all about terms and conditions.
Putin is not ready to negotiate. And Ukraine will never accept any kind of territorial concessions. How could you imagine, for example, that the president of Ukraine is to acknowledge that Russia fully, legitimately occupied Ukrainian territory? It completely contradicts international law. And we cannot allow Putin to redraw and break international law, entirely and completely.
Right now we are not in the negotiating phase. And I believe that we have to elaborate on the format of these negotiations and on the preconditions for these kind of negotiations. What could push war criminal Putin to start talks over the ceasefire deal, and a fair and just peace in Europe?
The Cipher Brief: President Trump has already said he is arranging a meeting with Vladimir Putin. We don't know the terms, we don't know the location, but do you think it's a good idea, as a starting point, for him to be having a meeting with the Russian president at this point?
Yatsenyuk: Let me start with the message that my gut feeling is that everyone right now in the world – in the free world – everybody relies on President Trump. And it's up to him to decide the future of Ukraine, the future of the global order, and the future – strong or weak – of the United States. And I believe that he has a huge ammo and huge arsenal in his hands as president, to restore the global order and to help Ukraine to survive in this unjust war, and actually help the entire European Union to survive and to stop autocrats and dictators like Putin, like [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un, those who are right now sitting under the umbrella of China, to stop their imperialistic ambitions. So that's the main point.
The second issue – what is needed? We need a clear-cut, credible, and implementable plan for how to stop the war and how to restore the global order, and how to make Ukraine a prosperous country with European Union membership – not just prospective but actual membership, and NATO membership as well. And I want to be very clear: [NATO’s] Article Five [security guarantee] is the only solution for Ukraine, for how to secure its future. This is the only ironclad guarantee.
Whether it's a good idea for President Trump to meet with the war criminal Putin, I am not in the position to lecture the new administration or the new president. It's up to the president to decide whether he wants to break the isolation that Putin is in right now. And my guess and my take is that this kind of meeting is possible, but only if President Trump gets real deliverables out of these meetings, very strong deliverables. In this case, maybe yes.
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The Cipher Brief: You've used the word “deliverables,” you used the word “preconditions.” What would be an example of a deliverable or precondition that you think should be laid forward before any negotiations begin?
Yatsenyuk: We need to strengthen Ukraine's position and we need to strengthen not just Ukraine's position, but the negotiating position of the entire free world. I believe that the format of these talks would comprise the United States, the European Union, Ukraine and Russia. This is the kind of format we had in 2014, when I was the Prime Minister.
So what kind of preconditions? The first one is also the best way to persuade war criminal Putin to stop his aggression: to enact legislation in the U.S. Congress, to show to Putin that the United States will have a long-term strategic goal to support Ukraine, that the U.S. has the back of Ukraine. It would be great if President Trump were to sponsor the bill – a new security package for Ukraine. I am well aware of the doubts that the new president has over the necessity to support Ukraine both militarily and financially. But a military investment in Ukraine is the best military investment in U.S. security, and it's obvious for everyone.
The second step is, we need to scrutinize what kind of tools we have in our arsenal to pressure the Russians. No doubt, we need to deprive Russia of its financing of their war chest – gas, oil and the rest of the stuff. The previous [U.S.] administration, in the end of its tenure, passed an impressive sanctions package. Now we need to enforce and implement these sanctions, because look what's happening: Europe is still buying LNG from the Russians. Russia is still gaining from its oil and gas exports.
So we have enough tools in our hands to stop this circumvention of sanctions, but it's up to the U.S. administration to impose secondary sanctions. And I believe that's what President Trump was talking about when he said, "Look, we can impose tariffs and sanctions on Russia and on Russia's partners." Secondary sanctions that Trump's administration could envisage and enforce would be very helpful.
The third issue is that we need a very strong unity between the European Union and the United States. There has to be no daylight, not even a hint of daylight, between the EU and the U.S. And we have to be rock solid within our NATO union because this beast – I mean the war criminal Putin – he understands only the language of strength. And the stronger we are, the more chances we will have to pressure him and to get a fair deal for all of us.
The Cipher Brief: You said back in November, in Berlin, that because Mr. Trump was unpredictable, you would need a crystal ball to imagine how he might act on any of the things we've been talking about. Now it’s a couple of months later, and 10 days or so into his administration. What have you learned? And do you feel any better or any worse, from the vantage point of Kyiv?
Yatsenyuk: President Trump made a number of statements. A few of them were very encouraging, the last one was not as encouraging, but it seems to me that he has changed the tone. And it's important right now to underpin these right and strong statements with bold and strong actions. So I am still looking for the crystal ball, but I see a few folks who presumably know the location of this crystal ball: his National Security Adviser [Mike] Waltz, retired General Keith Kellogg, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other very important and impressive people who represent the new political establishment of the United States. There are other folks on the different side of the aisle, but I will always focus on those who are very supportive of Ukraine and who are actually very supportive of the United States, because it's in the interest of the United States for Ukraine to win, because this is to be a joint victory. And the leader of this victory would be President Trump, no doubt.
The Cipher Brief: President [Volodymyr] Zelensky said the other day that Vladimir Putin was trying to “manipulate” President Trump in his statements and in other ways. What do you think of that statement? And to what extent is Ukraine trying – maybe not to manipulate Mr. Trump, but to influence him?
Yatsenyuk: I share President Zelensky's take. Look, who is Putin? Putin is a KGB operative. So they have scrutinized the portfolio of President Trump. They’ve got the previous experience of communicating to President Trump. And Putin tries to introduce this kind of flattery towards Trump. He wants to outplay Trump. That's clear for me, but whether President Trump will buy it, I hope not.
President Trump seems to be a very impressive person. He survived one assassination. He survived politically – I won't call this an assassination attempt, but he has resurrected politically. It's an unprecedented story. So my guess is that Trump will be on the right side, and the right side is to help Ukraine and never buy any of KGB operative Putin’s manipulations.
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The Cipher Brief: I wanted to ask you about corruption in Ukraine. Some people here have been critical of the U.S. aid because of alleged or perceived corruption in Ukraine. There's this story now about a standoff over the military procurement agency. And without getting into too much of the detail – unless you'd like to get into the detail – how damaging is something like that at this moment?
Yatsenyuk: Let me start with this huge network of anti-corruption agencies and law enforcement bodies that have been established in Ukraine since 2014, because I was the Prime Minister who sponsored the legislation, and who actually established the independent, amazing, efficient anti-corruption agencies in this country – the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, Anti-Corruption Court, Special National Anti-Corruption Preventive Agency, Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, and the rest. The reason I'm telling you this is because we did it together with our partners and allies in the United States and in the European Union, and we have a vast and strong network of anti-corruption law enforcement agencies in this country. Frankly speaking, in my humble opinion, it's even stronger than in the U.S.
But whether corruption exists in my country, the thing is, what are we doing right now with the corruption? We try to mitigate corruption. You cannot eradicate corruption completely, and you guys have the same problem in the U.S. But we are on the right track. In terms of the latest news about public procurement issues in our Ministry of Defense, I believe the Ministry has to be very supportive both to the president, to the country and to the military. And the less of these articles we have in the international media, the better argument we are going to get to help Ukraine, and not to withhold the support to the Ukrainian people.
The Cipher Brief: On the good news side, we have heard over and over again about the remarkable success of the defense and innovation sectors in Ukraine. Can you comment on Ukraine's future in this area, whatever happens with any negotiations? Is this a bright side in terms of what has happened in the nearly three years of war?
Yatsenyuk: The bright side in this country is the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian people that can innovate, the Ukrainian people that can produce cutting-edge technologies, the Ukrainian people that can fend off the Russian military, and the Ukrainian people that do really know what freedom and liberty is about. In terms of some kind of very specific innovations in the military sector, I am not an expert in this and I would never comment on stuff I don't know about.
The Cipher Brief: Last question. You said you don't have a crystal ball, but back to where we began, what is your assessment of the chances that within 100 days, or 200 days, or sometime this year, there will be peace in your country?
Yatsenyuk: This is an inflection point. It's a historic moment. It's a make or break situation, and we have to realize this because it's not just Russia fighting against Ukraine. It's Russia, North Korea, Iran, China, and a club of rogue states and dictators and pariahs fighting against freedoms and liberties, against the global order, and fighting against the United States, because you folks are the leaders. They're fighting against you, using us. So we have to join our ranks. We have to win in this righteous fight.
In terms of the time frame, again, the quicker the better. And it all depends on the arsenal of tools we possess and on our political will, and whether we are ready to use every single tool in order to reach the target, in order to reach a fair and just peace for Ukraine, in order to restore the global leadership of the United States, in order to show to every single autocrat and dictator, your times are over, folks. Just over, period.
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