Erdogan and Abadi: Making a Mess

Posted: November 4th, 2016

By Aaron Stein

Aaron Stein is a resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. His research interests include US-Turkey relations, Turkish foreign policy, the Syrian conflict, nonproliferation, and the Iranian nuclear program. Dr. Stein was previously a doctoral fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, an associate fellow for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and a researcher with the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM). He also worked as a consultant for the International Crisis Group in Istanbul and has published articles and reports on Turkey's nuclear capabilities and Turkish elections. Dr. Stein holds a BA in politics from the University of San Francisco and an MA in international policy studies from Monterey Institute of International Studies. Dr. Stein received his PhD in Middle East and Mediterranean studies at Kings College, London. He is proficient in Turkish and has elementary knowledge of Arabic and French.

Over the past month, the exchange of words between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi has reached a bitter crescendo. Focused primarily on the Turkish military base at Bashiqa in northern Iraq, which Abadi says is an unsanctioned violation of Iraqi territory, the diplomatic spat has prompted more serious real world escalation in the form of Turkish reinforcements to both Bashiqa and the Turkish border town of Silopi. The Cipher Brief asked Aaron Stein, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, what to make of this feud, and what it means for the region.

The Cipher Brief: What tactical, strategic, and political motivations lie behind Turkey’s decision to maintain the Bashiqa airbase in Iraq?

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