Tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran with no recognizable movement toward formal negotiations, and the Administration’s recent effort in Bahrain to gain support for their plan to find a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict via investment feels bankrupt, but if there is one thing every good businessman knows, there is opportunity in failure.
As a former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and founding director of the CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program Office, I have some thoughts on how the President has an opportunity to turn both situations into real ‘Deals of the Century’.
Here’s how we get there.
An Iran Deal
Neither Tehran nor Washington is interested in war, yet both are engaged in dangerous brinkmanship. Although there is always a high probability that such high-wire diplomatic maneuvering could lead to conflict, both countries could pursue negotiations through intermediaries. Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait are three important Gulf Cooperation Council candidates that would be willing to host intermediary talks. Oman, of course, played a constructive role, which ultimately led to the signing of the P5+1 agreement. Any of the three countries would be an acceptable negotiation venue for Iran.
The Iranian leadership seems to be using its decision to breach the nuclear deal as a tactic to force the EU to take a stand on preserving the agreement. Using the good offices of mediators, official statements from Iran seem to hint at the clerical regime’s willingness to renegotiate the agreement, perhaps with a longer break-out period. Iran expects such negotiations to accompany the lifting of sanctions. Despite rising anti-Americanism among radical factions inside Iran, the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei has decided, at least for now, to keep President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in their positions.
The anti-agreement radical centers of power in Iran remain relatively marginalized. The longer the JCPOA remains on life support and the more the Iranian people suffer because of the sanctions, the more their influence will rise. That, of course, will result in the disempowerment of the Rouhani-Zarif faction within the power structure. Mistrust of America is growing in Iran, especially as the flashbacks of removing Mohammad Mosaddegh from power in 1953 and the U.S. downing of an Iranian commercial airliner in 1988 are replayed over and over on Iranian social media. It’s time to defuse this manufactured crisis and move toward negotiation.
In order to start meaningful, and potentially promising, negotiations with Iran, the Trump administration will have to appoint a special American team of distinguished diplomats and scientists to re-examine the P5+1 agreement with an eye toward improving the deal, not torpedo it. If the negotiating team pursues the dual strategy of revising the agreement while lifting some of the most harmful sanctions, the EU would be willing to participate—which would improve its chances of success.
It’s erroneous to argue that all Gulf Arabs share the Saudi and Emirati animus toward Iran. Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar see their interests served better through engagement with Iran. Bahrain hews to the Saudi-Emirati line, but it is an insignificant player in the region. Even within the UAE, not all emirates are as hostile toward Iran as Abu Dhabi and its Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Dubai, for example, would be much happier with friendly commercial and political relations with Iran.
The Israel-Palestine Conundrum
For over 30 years, Palestinian leaders have pushed for a state of their own with East Jerusalem as its capital to live alongside Israel in peace and security. This has also been the position of most if not all Arab states and peoples, including Egypt and Jordan, which have had peace treaties with Israel.
The Arab representatives who attended the Bahrain Workshop on June 25-26 did so mostly to appease the White House and to remain in Trump’s good graces. Most Arabs, however, have so far resisted the push by the White House and Jared Kushner in particular, for Gulf Arab normalization with Israel before a political solution is concluded. Although most Arab states, including the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, recognize the reality of the state of Israel and deal with it almost routinely on security and intelligence matters, they have not deviated from the two-state and land-for-peace paradigm.
The Bahrain Workshop failed in its two goals of Arab normalization (tatbi’) with Israel and in persuading the Palestinians to place economics ahead of politics. Fewer and fewer Israelis and Palestinians truly believe that the two-state solution could ever be realized. Yet, Arab states and the Palestinians still believe that this approach should be the starting point in any negotiations. It’s becoming more obvious that a formula must be devised for the two peoples to live together (or side by side) between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Arabs no longer believe that such a formula can be achieved through force or military action.
Palestinians in Gaza have called on Israel and the international community to break the economic and political blockade of the Gaza Strip. Gazans openly describe their situation as living in an “open-air prison.” Commerce and fishing rights are severely restricted, and the freedom of movement and travel is inhumanely curtailed. Poverty, hunger, and malnutrition are prevalent throughout the territory, and unemployment is among the highest in the world.
Palestinians in the West Bank, mostly occupied by Israel and effectively controlled by Jewish settlers, maintain that Israel has two choices: either keep its control of the West Bank but extend Israeli citizenship to the Palestinian population or withdraw the occupation and negotiate the creation of some sort of a Palestinian state. Arab leaders generally support this position and would endorse whatever solution Israel and the Palestinians conclude.
As in the case of Iran, the Trump administration should appoint a new team of distinguished diplomats with experience and expertise in the Levant to begin negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian leadership. We should listen to our Arab allies including Jordan’s King Abdullah, who told the Kushner team that peace in the region could only come through negotiations with the Palestinians, again along the two-state paradigm.
The risk and reward of these paths is obvious. The risk is that the absence of such an agreement and the apparent disengagement of the United Stated from the region are bound to create a vacuum that will be filled by adversarial actors bent on undermining American security and interests.
The reward is true progress on two of the most important and difficult issues the U.S. is currently facing. And of course, a picture-perfect photo opportunity for the White House as it announces ground-breaking deals of the century.
Read more from Emile Nakhleh in The Cipher Brief
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