The Cipher Brief interviewed a number of national security experts on the sidelines of this year’s Munich Security Conference. Here are key takeaways from Executive Director at The McCain Institute, Dr. Evelyn Farkas. Our interview has been lightly edited.
The Cipher Brief: What impact did news of Russian Opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death have on the gathering as things kicked off?
Dr. Farkas: Everyone was really shocked. There was a somber mood. I have to be honest, the mood wasn’t ebullient and wasn’t overjoyed before that because we are at a really difficult moment in our standoff with Russia where the United States is yet to pass an assistance package. So that is weighing on everyone here already. But if this is true that Vladimir Putin has finally killed his nemesis, Alexei Navalny, it is really a sad time, obviously for his family, A sad time for all of the Russians who hope for democracy under character-driven leaders like Alexei Navalny. And for many of us, we now feel the need for the Kremlin to be held accountable for this death, and frankly, to make sure that no others like him are murdered as well.
The Cipher Brief: President Joe Biden before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, said there would be consequences if Alexei Navalny died in prison. Vladimir Putin is already an accused war criminal. What more can be done and how might this news change anything?
Dr. Farkas: We should try to do everything we can to build a case against him and bring it to an international court. We should also be thinking about perhaps asymmetric methods of proportionately punishing Russia, like, launching some kind of cyberattack to stop the activities of the Russian penal colony or the agency that oversees the Russian penitentiaries, something like that to be creative and also to show that he’s weak. We should do a better job of publicizing all of the people that Vladimir Putin has killed to make sure that he is held accountable. All of those things are really important. The president did say that there will be a price to pay, and I do hope that our government and other governments make sure that the price is paid by the right people inside Russia.
The Cipher Brief: Turning to the war itself, what are the most urgent needs?
Dr. Farkas: It’s a good question. The most urgent needs for the Ukrainians, some of them are things we can’t handle, meaning manpower, fresh troops. The Ukrainians who have been fighting for a long time are quite tired. But what we can provide is military assistance. We need to provide Ukraine with more and longer-range artillery. We need to make sure they can continue doing what they’ve been doing in and around the Black Sea, basically opening up a corridor of transit of trade and they can continue doing this. If they have longer range missiles, they can take out the Kirch Straight Bridge. That’s the famous bridge that Putin built that provides the resupply into Crimea from Russia. And then of course, air defense is always important, and if the Ukrainians can provide more air defense, not just to their civilians but to cover all civilians as well as the military, that would also be highly, highly useful and helpful to the Ukrainians.
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The Cipher Brief: What dries up soonest if nothing comes from Capitol Hill?
Dr. Farkas: We’re already hearing about the shortage of ammunition, and that is very real. That means the men in the trenches and women cannot fire as frequently as they should in order to defend themselves and their positions. Avdiivka, which had been held by the Ukrainians, was relinquished because of shortages of ammunition. So that is one area where the Ukrainians are already feeling the pinch, and we are already seeing the difference that the shortage makes.
The Cipher Brief: To what extent are the Europeans able to step in, and to what extent is the Ukrainian manufacturing of weaponry of its own going to make a difference?
Dr. Farkas: Certainly, the Ukrainians are doing the best they can to manufacture equipment. And I think if American and European companies went in there, because that has nothing to do with the U.S. government, although often they will have to apply for a license. But nevertheless, they can go in there and offer the Ukrainians some technical know-how perhaps and work with them to jointly produce if that’s the quickest way to do it. But the Ukrainians have been very resourceful, and they are already working on building their own defense industry.
In addition to that, the Europeans could step into the breach and use some of the money that they approved to buy weaponry and provide that weaponry to Ukraine. They could buy it from us. We are somewhat limited by our industrial base and the ability to manufacture fast enough, but these things are surmountable if we put ourselves on a war footing.
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And then the last part of it is in terms of resources, we really should be looking at the Russian frozen assets and figuring out how we can employ some of them to help the Ukrainians. If that money is used for reconstruction, which is probably the most appropriate use for it, then the European EU funds that were earmarked for reconstruction can be repurposed for military support.
The Cipher Brief: And of all the things you’ve mentioned vis-a-vis the war, what one or two things do you think is most likely to help break the stalemate for the Ukrainians?
Dr. Farkas: Using missiles to continue to knock the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea waters, or at least as much out of Ukrainian Black sea waters as possible. They’ve already reduced the Black Sea fleet by a third. And they can continue to destroy that capability. They can use the weapons to take out other infrastructure to continue the sabotage operations on Russian military sites inside of Russia proper. So, there are things that the Ukrainians can do to continue to keep the Russians or to get the Russians off balance and to, of course erode their capabilities.
The Cipher Brief: Talk a bit about your reflections on the relationship between the U.S. and the world right now.
Dr. Farkas: I am part of the congressional delegation traveling with members of Congress and there’s a real tension now, a real division between those members of Congress and those Americans who believe that American power can be used and should be used to defend our democracy. And then also to ensure greater rights and freedom for people all around the world. Those of us who are engagement oriented, who want a role for America in the world, believe that American power can be used to advance the good, if you will, and to support our democracy and our way of life. And we are in a face off against the isolationists who either are naive and think that we can just sit on the North American continent and the bad guys will let us live our lives if we don’t bother them, which is absurd because we’re the largest military, economic and political power in the world. We’re a potential threat to any autocrat, to any dictator so they will want to weaken us and destroy our democracy.
The other kind of isolationist – is the one that frankly, just benefits Vladimir Putin and doesn’t think it’s bad to have a non-democracy in the United States – probably hasn’t lived or visited a communist or another country that doesn’t have the freedom that we have. So, we are really finding that in our country, this is a big debate on whether America should be engaged to defend our democracy or whether we should be isolationists for different reasons. And that’s a very real tension, and it’s something the Europeans are watching. They of course have some of their own tensions as well between populism and democracy, but we’re seeing them play out right now in America in a really sharp fashion because of our elections.
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