OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — As I and former colleagues with long experience in Russia speak on the need to support Ukraine, we are repeatedly asked the same skeptical questions. The queries reveal that our assumptions about the facts, nature, and stakes of the war are not universally shared.
These questions commonly reflect genuine misunderstanding about the nature of Russia, its reasons for invading Ukraine, the ambitions of President Putin, and what it will take for Ukraine to win. We hear over and over echoes of Russian propaganda and disinformation themes which are seeded and amplified in social and digital media outlets on the right and left.
To be fair, the Biden administration has failed to persuasively explain the stakes of this conflict for America, the consequences of a Ukrainian defeat, and what is America’s strategy to help Ukraine win. Too many citizens do not understand why America is spending billions to help a country they find hard to place on a map and about which there are waves of lies and distortions.
Given the stakes, America could use a primetime speech where President Biden provides a compelling and crystal-clear explanation for America’s role and responsibility, akin to President Roosevelt’s powerful yet simple “arsenal of democracy” radio broadcast in 1940, on why help to a United Kingdom under Nazi assault was vital to America’s own national defense.
It’s not just for the President anymore. Cipher Brief Subscriber+Members have access to their own Open Source Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
All those who support Ukraine must be ready to answer the hard questions posed by citizens who want to ensure we are doing the right thing, and that their hard-earned dollars are being well spent.
Here’s my crack at some of the most common questions posed by Ukraine aid skeptics, along with the answers I would offer.
Why Should America Fight Ukraine’s War? It is far away and doesn’t affect me.
- Conquering Ukraine is Putin’s key to restoring a new Russian Empire, a modern Soviet Union allied with communist China to set the rules for the globe. He has told us as much.
- If Putin achieves his vision, our children will live in a world where America is weaker, less secure, and less prosperous. Our values of freedom, democracy, and prosperity will fall into retreat around the world. Ukraine is fighting not only for its survival, but for what all Americans believe in.
- The stakes of this fight are nothing less than whether the next decades offer peace and prosperity for America and its allies, or insecurity, instability, and war. We must help Ukrainian soldiers fight now so that American soldiers don’t have to fight later.
Isn’t Ukraine corrupt and wasting our aid? I heard that Zelensky is building a palace overseas?
- Ukraine is fighting two wars at the same time, the first against Russian invaders, the second against the legacy of rot and corruption which has bedeviled all countries of the former Soviet Union. President Zelensky knows that the fastest way to lose America’s support is to squander the aid provided.
- Russia understands this reality and is using the vast disinformation resources at its disposal to paint Ukraine as dirty. Before the war, Russia used organized crime and its KGB legacy security services together to undermine rule of law and control Kyiv.
- The facts are that Ukraine is now working diligently to root out this legacy of Soviet corruption and has made significant strides. The job is not over and never will be, even America has its own problems with corrupt officials and companies.
- Ukraine wants to be part of the EU, and this provides both powerful incentives and useful tools to build an economy and society where corruption is the exception, not the rule, as it is in Russia.
- The palace story is a pure Russian invention (ironic, given the real billion-dollar palace Putin has built on the Black Sea).
Why should we help Ukrainians who have corrupt business ties to Biden family – should taxpayers be dumping money into Biden’s sons business interests?
- No taxpayer monies are going into Hunter Biden or President Biden business interests in Ukraine. Zero. The Russians are mounting a major disinformation campaign to keep this story alive. The original source of the story, Alexander Smirnov, is in jail awaiting trial and has admitted the story is false and attributed to Russian intelligence.
Why is America the only one helping? Why aren’t Europeans providing aid and money?
- Europe has provided more total aid to Ukraine than the United States, according to the Kiel Institute which tracks total military, economic, and humanitarian aid. In the first two years of war, EU countries and EU institutions provided 144 billion Euros of combined aid. In the same period, the United States provided 68 billion Euros, with all other donor countries accounting for another 40 billion Euros.
- As a percentage of GDP, almost every European country (31 of them) has provided more aid than the United States. Aid from EU institutions and from EU members is heavily weighted towards the financial assistance Ukraine needs to keep hospitals, schools, transportation, and energy systems functioning.
- Aid from the US has been concentrated on the military aid and weapons systems only the US can provide. Of the 68 billion euros provided by the US, 42 billion was provided in the form of military aid and equipment.
- Bottom line, Europe has stepped up, and the countries closest to Russia – the Baltic states, Scandinavian countries, and Poland – see the threat most clearly and are contributing the most per capita.
Doesn’t money spent on Ukraine take away from Taiwan’s defense? Shouldn’t we be focused on China?
- China is watching American resolve on supporting Ukraine very carefully. Chairman Xi knows that if America will not help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, that there is little chance it will leap to the defense of a much weaker Taiwan, 7600 miles away. If American goes wobbly on Ukraine, the prospects for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan increases.
- China is actively working to help Russia win, judging that a Ukrainian defeat and Russian victory is in its best interests. China is supplying Russia with electronics, vehicles, communications, and other dual use military items. Most importantly, China is providing Russia with cash to fuel its war machine via oil purchases.
- Ukraine’s success in destroying Russia’s Black Sea Fleet with naval drones and long-range missiles is providing the US with a valuable practical lesson in how precision munitions, drones, and AI is changing the nature of naval warfare.
- America must be prepared to address multiple threats at the same time. A Ukrainian defeat will not make America more prepared to face China, while at the same time it would embolden China to launch its own war of territorial conquest.
Is this a forever war? Can Ukraine win?
- Ukraine’s fighting men and women are more than a match for the Russia’s army of convicts, press-ganged migrants, paid mercenaries, and conscripts from the poorest regions. The Ukrainian armed forces have inflicted devasting casualties on Russian manpower and equipment. Even with help from Iran and North Korea, Russia resources are finite. With enough weapons of the right kind, Ukraine is capable of defeating Russia on the battlefield.
- We’ve already seen evidence of this capability. With its own drone Navy, Ukraine has sunk much of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and kept vital sea lanes open. With American and European air defenses, Ukraine has shot down most Russia’s missiles and Iranian drones. With homegrown kamikaze drones, Ukraine has hit vital oil and refinery targets deep in Russia. Outmanned and outgunned, Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill and recovered 50 percent of the territory lost in early fighting.
- The war will end when the combination of Ukrainian fighting ability and determination, combined with Western arms, technology, and economic help results in defeating Russia’s forces on the battlefield. Alternatively, should America and Europe give into “war fatigue” and allow Russia to conquer and subjugate Ukraine, it sets the stage for a much bigger and more dangerous confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Will American aid lead to war with Russia?
- Vladimir Lenin, leader of the 1917 Russian Revolution and founder of the Soviet Union’s first leader had an oft quoted saying, “You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.”
- If America does not support Ukraine, Russia will know America’s will to be mush and will keep pushing, inevitably leading to war. But if America holds its nerve and supports Ukraine in its fight, Russia will find steel.
- Those who have served in Russia know its pervasive bully behavior – a culture and practice of intimidation that characterizes the relationship of government to the governed. Russia intimidates and cows its own citizens and seeks to do the same with its neighbors, Europe, and America. Ukraine is standing up to the bully. It’s success in preserving its own independence now will reduce the risk of America and NATO needing to fight in the future.
But if Ukraine beats Russia, won’t Russia use nuclear weapons?
- At critical junctions in the war, Putin and other members of his inner circle have consistently directly or indirect threatened to use nuclear weapons, but there are powerful restraints, including voiced opposition from China and India.
- Russia has used nuclear blackmail to deter the West regarding help for Ukraine. This has met with some success in making America reluctant to provide Ukraine with weapons Russia might see as “provocative. So long as this tactic works, Russia will continue to use it.
- Nevertheless, longstanding Russian nuclear doctrine calls for nuclear weapon use only if the survival of the Russia state is at stake. Ukraine does not seek Russia’s collapse, only to drive its invading army from Ukrainian soil.
- Russia also knows that use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine will result in a dramatic and unpredictable response from America and would it closer to a nuclear war it cannot win.
Does Ukraine have to get all its territory back?
- Ask any Ukrainian and they will say yes. Would America give up 20 percent of its territory to a foreign invader – Texas, Florida, Michigan, and New York?
- Is it possible Ukraine would settle for something less? Not willingly, and then only with the security guarantees that Russia will not simply ignore whatever it agrees to and resume the war. In practical terms, this means NATO and EU membership, regardless of where the lines are drawn.
- Russia’s goal is not to just grab some Ukrainian land: it wants to kill Ukraine’s leaders, impose its own government, and wield total control over most, if not all, of the country. Putin believes he is on a historical mission to conquer and subjugate Ukraine.
- Faced with that reality, Ukraine knows it is fighting for survival, and any compromise simply whets Russia’s appetite.
What is America’s strategy and end game? Do we want Ukraine to win?
- For me, this is the hardest, but most important question. Why is it so difficult? Because the Biden administration has not laid out a coherent concept of what victory looks like, along with the military, economic, and military strategy that will support this vision.
- As General David Petraeus would ask – what is the big idea that drives America’s actions? For me, it is simple – protect America by enabling Ukraine’s victory.
- Until now, the Biden administration strategy can be summed up as “Don’t Let Ukraine Lose”, rather than “How do we help make sure Ukraine wins.” Not many contests whether sports or war are won with a tepid effort to not lose.
- It is in America’s interest for Ukraine to win, and for this to happen, Russia must lose. There is no win/win or lose/lose scenario here. If Russia wins, Ukraine and the West loses.
So, what does winning look like? First, Ukraine must be accepted into NATO and on the path towards EU membership. These will be the strongest guarantees that the war won’t simply begin again when Russia decides it is ready. Membership in these institutions will also provide the tools and opportunity for Ukraine to become the fastest growing and most dynamic economy in Europe.
Second, Russia will never be a normal country so long as Vladimir Putin is in power. Regime change in Russia doesn’t need to be a goal, but just as the Soviet Union ultimately collapsed due to internal rot, ultimately the Putin dictatorship will come to an end. Russian dictators do not tend to fair well after wasteful lost wars. Who will he be replaced with? No one knows, and it will be for Russians themselves to decide. America and the West can only offer to welcome Russia should it respond to its catastrophic Ukraine mistake by turning away from dictatorship, repression, and aggression.
Subscriber+Members have a higher level of access to Cipher Brief Expert Perspectives and get exclusive access to The Dead Drop, the best national security gossip publication, if we do say so ourselves. Find out what you’re missing. Upgrade your access to Subscriber+ now.
This is a war that Ukraine did not ask for and the West did not provoke. But now that we are in it, like or not, we must be in it to win it. There is no wishing away what Russia has unleashed, and there is no magical concession to Russia that will make it all go away. Ukraine must win, which means Russia must lose, and America and its allies must do everything their power to ensure that happens.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
