Never give in—never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy. — Sir Winston Churchill
OPINION – Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul may have lasted less than two hours on Friday, but the message to Ukrainians about what comes next should be clear; never give in, especially when the aggressor is not operating from a state of strength.
Putin’s no show to talks he proposed is in fact, a sign of weakness. Ukrainians already understand perfectly well that negotiating with Putin is pointless, that Putin’s word is worthless and that he has not forgotten the tenets of his KGB training, one of which is that all compromise is tactical.
Ukrainians already know that the Istanbul talks were little more than a form of “peace theater.” Putin proposed these negotiations almost certainly as a tactic to grab a propaganda edge by showing the U.S., Europe, China, and India that he is willing to negotiate (a keen observer will have noted however, that Putin has not made a single concession, not one, on his demands for the end of the war).
Putin’s negotiators went to Istanbul asking essentially for Ukraine to give up its sovereignty and become a lackey state in Russia’s orbit – in the same way as Belarus. But he is discounting the fact that Ukraine has performed brilliantly since the onset of Russia’s brutal invasion in February 2022. They have embarrassed the once-vaunted Russian conventional forces. Ukraine has fought them to a standstill and has inflicted tremendous casualties.
In a sense, Ukraine has already won this war. Putin has unified Ukraine in a way many would have thought impossible. Ukraine now has a powerful military, arguably the most powerful in Europe. Ukraine has become a technological innovator, with the way they have used drones, artificial intelligence, satellites and other technologies to stay ahead of the Russians, and to even the playing field despite Russia’s numerical superiority. This too, is a victory. NATO powers and other countries look with admiration at the way the Ukrainians have fought, innovated, and not only defended their country, but taken the fight to Russia.
Ukrainians have pride in their country, pride in their military, pride in the ability they have demonstrated to punish the aggressor. Ukraine has won in another sense by using the current invasion to remind the world of previous aggression by Russia against the Ukrainian people, whether Stalin’s Holomodyr or the role Ukraine played in defending the territory of the Soviet Union from Nazi invaders early in the Second World War. This history has resurfaced and strengthened the view in the world that Ukraine is a nation with its own history and culture.
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Having just had the opportunity to participate in the Annual Kyiv Security Forum, to walk around Kyiv and observe the spirit of a people happy to be free, one could not help but be impressed and to understand that these people will not quit and will never let themselves be conquered by a dictator like Putin.
Moreover, they will not let themselves be forced into a bad peace agreement by the United States or anyone else. They have already sacrificed too much. They also understand acutely that any agreement that Putin can claim as a victory only means a pause in the fighting, while Russia re-groups and the world forgets. He will invade again.
The main Ukrainian conditions for Istanbul were simple; Moscow must recognize Ukrainian sovereignty, the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, the right of Ukraine to have a military to defend itself. These are not unreasonable conditions.
Ukraine must also have security guarantees from the U.S./EU/NATO or a combination thereof. In a just world, Ukraine would add conditions such as the return of territory annexed or occupied by Russia, reparations for damage, return of their citizens including children that have been kidnapped and taken to Russia and the remanding to justice of Russian war criminals.
Ukrainians also understand something that seems to have eluded many if not most observers in the West. Putin is not negotiating from a position of strength, quite the opposite.
Putin’s invasion has been a strategic disaster for the Russian Federation. The Russian military has been shown to be a paper tiger. The Russian Navy has been chased from the eastern Black Sea, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO making the Baltic practically a NATO lake. Well over an estimated 250,000 young working age Russians have fled the country in opposition to the war or to avoid the draft.
Russian casualties in the war are estimated now to be above 800,000 dead, wounded and missing. This is a number that is difficult to hide even for a dictator who has mastered the art of oppression and has complete control of the media. Russia’s economy is a shambles with high inflation, declining Gross Domestic Product, labor and demographic challenges. Russia has become a pariah state on the global stage. This all in three short years. This is Putin’s legacy.
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Ukrainians understand Putin also needs this war to end. Russia cannot sustain the level of casualties it is taking forever. It is useful to recall that in the invasion of Afghanistan, Russia lost about 15,000 personnel over a period of ten years and those loses plus the ignominious withdrawal were significant factors leading to the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin understands he could be on the brink of that sort of collapse. Ukraine understands that as well, this is part of the strategy behind taking the war to the Russian people through drone strikes in Moscow and targeting energy and military infrastructure in many places in the Russian Federation. This should be encouraged.
Ukraine will fight to the end. They recognize this fight is existential. If they lose, Putin will finish the job Stalin started. Ukrainian language and culture will be eradicated. Thousands of Ukrainians will be shipped in rail cars to Putin’s gulag for “reeducation.” Thousands more Ukrainian children will be kidnapped and shipped to families in Russia. Ukrainians know they cannot quit, cannot accept a peace that Putin can claim as a victory. Such a peace would be temporary at best and would ultimately lead to the fate described above.
Ukraine should understand after Istanbul, that they are not negotiating from a position of weakness, just the opposite. One hopes the current U.S. administration understands that as well and does not miss the opportunity to message Putin strongly that he needs to end the war, starting with a ceasefire or the U.S. will double down on sanctions against the Russian Federation and increase military support and financial aid to Kyiv. Lastly, the U.S. must understand and support the Ukrainian resolve, never, never, never to give in.
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