Lebanon has a chance to return power to its people. Will it take it? 

By Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former Senior Executive in the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who worked for 34 years in the U.S. Intelligence, Defense, and Foreign Affairs communities.  He spent over 17 years serving overseas and served as the U.S. President’s Senior Representative on Intelligence and Security issues.  He is an Adjunct Professor at the Institute of World Politics.

OPINION — On 29 September, Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that his country was “committed to Resolution 1701” – a 2006 U.N. ceasefire plan – and that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) was ready to “implement it.” With the Israeli armed forces decimating the leadership of Lebanese Hezbollah and now moving ground troops into Southern Lebanon to further target Hezbollah, Mikati appears to be suggesting that the LAF is ready to accept responsibility for securing Lebanon’s Southern border with Israel and stop Hezbollah and its allies from using Lebanese territory to terrorize Israel. Mikati and others likely hope that the prospect of the Government of Lebanon finally fulfilling its commitments agreed to when Beirut signed Resolution 1701 will convince Tel Aviv to hold off on a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. It’s a high-stakes gamble that could benefit the people of Lebanon and the West if it’s successful. 

The recent history 

Resolution 1701 was passed by the United Nations to resolve the 2006 Lebanon War between Israel and Hezbollah. It called for a cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, the disarming of Hezbollah and other groups, and deployment of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the LAF south of the Litani river, only 29 kilometers from the Israeli–Lebanese border.   

The resolution was unanimously approved by the United Nation’s Security Council on 11 August 2006. Israel pulled back its forces, but Hezbollah has failed to abide by the terms of the Resolution, instead increasing the deployment of its “armed forces” south of the Litani river. Since then, he LAF has been unable to stop Hezbollah from using this territory to plan and conduct attacks against Israel.  In violating the terms of Resolution 1701, Hezbollah demonstrated its commitment to terrorizing Israel as well as its disregard for the Government of Lebanon, the LAF, and the majority of Lebanese citizens who had no interest in Iran’s proxy using Lebanese territory to attack Israel. 

Thousands of innocent Lebanese civilians have paid the price for Hezbollah’s actions, caught in the crossfire between the Iran-backed Shi’a terrorist group and Israel. After Hezbollah’s fellow Iranian-proxy group, Hamas, launched its 7 October 2023 mass terrorist attack on Israel, Hezbollah’s now-deceased leader, Hassan Nasrallah, ordered his forces to increase attacks again targets in Northern Israel. According to some estimates, since 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has launched over 2,000 rocket and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) strikes against Israel, forcing up to 60,000 Israeli citizens to evacuate their homes. There have been at least 4,000 Lebanese casualties since Hezbollah began its attacks.  

Nasrallah and his Iranian backers appear to have seriously overestimated their ability to counter the Israelis, and they underestimated Israel’s willingness to respond.  As a result, LH is being dismantled by Tel Aviv. Starting in the autumn of 2023, Israeli Intelligence and Security forces implemented what appears to have been a highly effective targeting campaign against Hezbollah’s most senior military leaders, culminating in the 27 September airstrikes that killed Nasrallah himself.  

A brilliant campaign 

Even before Nasrallah’s demise, Hezbollah was reeling under the effectiveness of Israel’s precision strikes against key Hezbollah targets. Israel’s intelligence service penetrated Hezbollah, sending a clear message that members of the organization cannot trust one another. And in the wake of the explosions of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies last month, they cannot trust the equipment they rely on either, leaving them unable to sustain operations.  

Tel Aviv’s campaign against Hezbollah has been nothing short of a marvel, perfectly synthesizing joint military and intelligence operations. It appears Israel’s strategy has been to wipe out the leadership team around Nasrallah, then remove the longtime leader of the organization himself, making it difficult for Hezbollah to reconstitute anytime soon. Meanwhile, Iran’s failure to take significant action to defend Hezbollah should raise serious doubts among its many proxies in the region.  

Hezbollah’s decline has created a power vacuum in Lebanon, with a wide range of entities vying to fill the void, including the Syrian regime, Palestinian extremist groups, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), organized crime, however unlikely, Christian militias that have had been bullied and blackmailed by Hezbollah since the end of Lebanon’s civil war. Israel may temporarily replace Hezbollah’s influence in Southern Lebanon, but previous attempts by Tel Aviv to occupy Lebanese territory have been too costly.  Past military interventions by the U.S. in Lebanon have also failed, and it seems highly unlikely that any European power is willing to deploy forces to stabilize the situation. Russia, which has in recent years tried to expand its influence in Lebanon via his presence in Syria, is not in a position to fill the power vacuum either. 

One answer 

The only legitimate alternative to Hezbollah is the LAF. Since 2006, the US government has provided $3 billion in security assistance to Lebanon, with most of the funds going to LAF training and equipment. Although the LAF has received US assistance and successfully conducted anti-extremist operations inside Lebanon, it has not been powerful enough to challenge Hezbollah. Today, the situation may be changing primarily due to Israel’s relentless campaign against Hezbollah. If Prime Minister Mikati is correct and the LAF is ready to seize control over areas currently dominated by Hezbollah, it could help Washington and Brussels convince the Israelis not to launch a full-scale ground invasion of Lebanon. 

American taxpayers have invested a great deal of money in the LAF. It is likely in the best interests of the United States to encourage Lebanon’s political leaders to follow through on Prime Minister Mikati’s offer to deploy the LAF along the Lebanese–Israeli border. Washington and Brussels should also strongly consider encouraging Beirut to use the LAF and other Lebanese Security structures that have benefited from U.S. and European aid and assistance over the past 15 years to finally disarm Hezbollah and return control over Lebanese domestic and foreign affairs to the people of Lebanon. 

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field?  Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

Categorized as:Middle EastTagged with:

Related Articles

Search

Close