OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Following the October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel, many commentators in the West were quick to cite the failure of Israel’s Intelligence and Security structures to identify and disrupt the Hamas attacks before they took place.
These commentators seemed anxious to rush to judgement on what happened and how the Israeli Intelligence Services failed. Others, more accurately noted that Israel’s failure was a political failure, vice an intelligence failure.
We now know that Israeli intelligence services did collect information on Hamas’ attack planning but a failure of leadership in Israel at multiple levels played a major part in the October tragedy.
There also remains the very strong possibility that Iranian-backed Hamas conducted a successful offensive counter-intelligence operation against the State of Israel designed to deceive the Israelis about Hamas’ true plans and intentions. To achieve such success, Hamas would have to have exploited Israeli overconfidence and hubris in the same way state that non-state actors have successfully planned and executed large-scale denial and deception and offensive counter-intelligence operations, to mislead western Intelligence Services, including the U.S.
The Israeli failure does not seem to be linked to failing to collect intelligence but may have been a result of the collection of intelligence that was specially shared by Hamas to reinforce existing bias among key Israeli leaders and manipulate those decision makers to discount the real intelligence that Tel Aviv should have acted upon.
But following the initial pain of the Hamas assault, the Israeli Security establishment launched a large-scale invasion of Hamas’ stronghold in Gaza and a declaration of war by the Government of Israel against Hamas – Worldwide. To date, the Israelis say they have killed a number of senior Hamas leaders.
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Tel Aviv has also had success targeting Lebanese Hizballah commanders and personnel in Lebanon indicating that Israeli operational and battlefield commanders have access to solid intelligence.
On January 2, a suspected Israeli operation killed senior Hamas official Saleh Al-Arouri. Speaking on Fox News on January 4, the founder of the Israeli Inside the Middle East Institute Avi Melamed noted that reporting indicates that Al-Arouri was hit while located at a Lebanese Hizballah provided safe house in the heart of the Shi’a terrorist organization’s stronghold in the Southern Suburbs of Beirut. For those familiar with intelligence matters related to Lebanon, it is well known that this area referred to as the ‘Dahiyeh’ is a denied area for foreign intelligence services to operate. In fact, even the Lebanese Government’s own Security and Intelligence Services have very little access to this area given Lebanese Hizballah’s control. (Foreign Intelligence officials who have worked in Lebanon know that it is extremely difficult to conduct operations in the Dahiyeh and there are many stories about foreigners who attempt to enter this stronghold being detained by Lebanese Hizballah and either expelled from the area or placed in custody.)
While the removal of Al-Arouri may not have been directly targeted at Lebanese Hizballah, it was likely designed to send a clear message to that terrorist group and their Iranian sponsors, that Israel has access to the type of intelligence that will allow it to conduct effective targeting operations in areas where Lebanese Hizballah may have thought they were “safe”. Al-Arouri was reportedly a guest of Lebanese Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Nasrallah himself needs to understand that he and other leaders under his command may be much more vulnerable than he previously thought. Watching the level of destruction that the Israelis have reigned on Gaza since October 7, Nasrallah also needs to understand that despite his rhetoric about ‘avenging’ al-Arouri’s death, any escalation of the long simmering conflict between the Dahiyeh and Beirut will cost his organization dearly.
As Lebanese Hizballah’s task masters in Iran watch Tel Aviv remove senior commanders recruited, trained, and directed by Tehran as part of its ‘Axis of Resistance’, they must also feel somewhat vulnerable. After all, the Israelis have demonstrated an ability to strike HVTs in Iran in the past and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) recent terrorist attacks at a memorial to former Iranian Revolutionary Guards – Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander Qassem Soleimani, is a stark reminder that the Iranian regime also remains vulnerable at home.
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The Iranian regime is still very unpopular with many Iranian citizens who question why they are funding and training groups like Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas when their own economy is suffering, and their country remains increasingly isolated. As one Lebanese citizen once told me after visiting Iran, “the Iranians I met repeatedly complained to me that money they wanted invested in their own economy was being sent to support Lebanese Hizballah and told me that they resent Lebanon as a result.”
The Iranian regime, with its extensive Intelligence and Security network inside the country and its ability to monitor Iranian opposition figures internationally, should be aware of how unpopular its policies are with many Iranians. The regime has been able to hold onto power by intimidating and terrorizing its own citizens. But it is possible that if the Iranians go too far in their war with Israel, and the Israelis extend their kinetic offensive to HVT targets inside of Iran, this will make the regime appear vulnerable and result in more aggressive demands from the population on the regime for much needed and desired change.
Of course, there is another actor indirectly involved in the conflict that wants nothing more than to see a further escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel – Russia. Moscow has become increasingly dependent on Iran for the supply of weapons systems that it needs to maintain its war against Ukraine. Even with Iran’s assistance, the Russians continue to struggle to sustain operations in Ukraine and if Moscow’s source of supplies in Iran is disrupted, this would undermine Vladimir Putin’s efforts against his Western neighbor. Putin and his advisors are also aware of the looming threat their forces will face when the Ukrainian Armed Forces start operating F-16 aircraft. And while Moscow benefited from a delay in the continued U.S. support for Ukraine at the end of 2023, it is highly likely that support will resume in early 2024, as Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Congress secure a deal on Foreign Aid and Border Security, adding to Putin’s problems. Thus, the Russians must understand that allowing Iran to put Russia’s supply chain at risk of disruption by Israeli strikes or political upheaval inside of Iran, is not something that the Kremlin can afford. And the Russian Intelligence Services are well aware of how effective the Israelis have been in conducting their targeting offensive, which could soon extend to targeting Iranian military production sites and facilities if the Iranians push Tel Aviv too far.
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