SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — As Israel’s war against Hamas surpasses the 100-day mark with no signs of an immediate end and indications that the conflict is spreading, what does Russia stand to gain?
Last year, the Kremlin joined the chorus of governments calling for a ceasefire, and Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the level of violence as “very high on both sides” while steering clear of chiding Hamas’s violent action against civilians on October 8.
Putin pegged the blame not on Hamas or Israel but on “the failure of United States policy in the Middle East.” Putin has also surmised, without evidence, that Western arms that were bound for Ukraine, have ended up in Israel for use against the Palestinians via the black market.
“The only thing (the West) can muster is continued pronouncements about Israel’s supposed right to self-defense. Although, as an occupying power, it does not have that power,” Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya declared during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly session on the conflict. “In other situations, (Western nations) call for the respect of humanitarian law, set up inquiry commissions and impose sanctions on those who use force as a last resort to stop years of violence… but on the destruction in Gaza … they play mum.”
Late last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov extended applause to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while drawing a comparison between Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Several high-profile Russian commentators, analysts and politicians berated what they called the West’s “double standards” of supporting Israel while condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“The burgeoning conflict between Israel and Hamas is certainly a boon to Putin. Russia has already begun a propaganda campaign against U.S. support to Israel, attempting to spin it as hypocritical of the U.S. and the West more broadly to support an ‘invasion’ and crying crocodile tears over the collateral damage produced by Israel’s Gaza campaign—as though he has not overseen mass atrocities against the Ukrainian people and actually cares about the plight of the Palestinians,” Ashley Rhoades, a Defense Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, told The Cipher Brief. “Of course, in reality, there is no parallel between Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s counterterrorism campaign against Hamas, but Putin never fails to seize an opportunity to sow division and discord.”
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Nonetheless, Putin is walking a fine line between both warring parties. For the Russian President, the war in the Middle East serves as a ripe opportunity to not only condemn and undermine Washington in the international order but also to posture as an intermediary and vessel for de-escalation, re-asserting itself as a prominent player in the region.
Subsequently, say analysts, Russia benefits in more ways than one.
“The battering that the United States is taking in Arab public opinion now is a bonus for Russia,” asserted Karl Kaltenthaler, Director of the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and a Political Science Professor at the University of Akron. “(And) Putin sees the conflict in Gaza as a great way to damage the United States’ standing in the Middle East. It is likely that he is willing to accept some bumps in the road with Israel as a way of hurting the United States. For Russia, expanding Russian influence in the Arab world at the expense of the United States is the main goal related to the Gaza conflict.”
In addition, Moscow stands to gain from the tectonic shift in focus from the battlefields of Ukraine.
“Another benefit to (Putin) of this war is that it distracts the West from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and forces the U.S. government and European capitals to make difficult decisions about how to direct their limited resources between two allies in need, Israel and Ukraine,” Rhoades noted.
The notion of the United States diverting some arms earmarked for Kyiv to the Middle East instead, also spells another victory for the Kremlin. The longer the Middle East war rumbles on, the higher the chances Israel will require U.S. arms, including artillery rounds and weaponized drones, which are also in short supply in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia also stands to gain by fracturing Europe with dissonance over who and how to support one side or another in the Middle East.
“Russia is interested in triggering a war in the Middle East so that a new source of pain and suffering could undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions, and thus help Russia destroy freedom in Europe,” said Zelensky.
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As a prominent global oil producer, Russia would prosper from a hike in crude prices amid the Middle East volatility, essentially increasing its export value and making more funds available for defense purposes. As per the World Bank, the increase since the start of the conflict has been modest but has the potential to surge if the war draws more regional players to the fray.
In a recent monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency said the markets would “remain on tenterhooks” as the conflict unravels.
Another coup for Putin is the assumption that the war is likely to have halted, or possibly destroyed, the Biden administration’s long effort to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The view from Moscow on the Abraham Accords has always been one of contention, an American-dominant project that pushes Russia out of the mix.
Moscow has also endeavored to shore up strong diplomatic ties with Hamas itself, which it does not consider a terrorist organization. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed in late October that a Hamas delegation met with officials in Moscow to discuss the war in Gaza. Among the hundreds of hostages still in the clutches of Hamas are eight Russian Israeli dual citizens.
Defense technologist and author of Hunting the Caliphate, Wes J. Bryant, highlighted that attention has been drawn from Ukraine to Israel, at least to a degree, and the more economic and military support to Israel from Western allies, especially the U.S., the less becomes available to support Ukraine going forward.
“This gives Russia, and specifically Putin, the chance to try to appear like a peacemaker,” he said. “You can see his attempt at this already by bringing in a Hamas delegation, as well as in Russia’s incredibly ironic and tone-deaf condemnation of Israel’s airstrike campaign into Gaza.”
U.S. intelligence also revealed recently that Russia’s paramilitary mercenary organization, the Wagner Group, intends to send Hezbollah, an Israel archenemy on its northern front, a short-range air defense system currently in the arsenal of the Syrian military.
“Putin was late to the game in expressing his condolences to Netanyahu over the murder of over 1,200 Israelis in the initial onslaught by Hamas. Meanwhile, Hamas has been extolling its ‘friendship’ with Russia, and Moscow even hosted a delegation of Hamas officials, much to Israel’s consternation,” Rhoades pointed out. “Yet Putin has been trying to position Moscow as a potential intermediary or broker between Hamas and Israel. Hard to see how Israel would be open to that given Putin’s actions thus far.”
Indeed, Moscow’s growing closeness to Hamas has attracted the ire of Israeli officials, who also considered Russia a diplomatic ally. Putin and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu have met dozens of times throughout their many years in power, and Israel serves as home for hundreds of thousands of Russian Jews who emigrated amid the fall of the Soviet Union.
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As testimony to the strength of their ties, Israel never implemented Western-led sanctions against Russia and declined to supply Kyiv with weapons. Yet irrespective of the direction diplomacy takes between the two countries now, so long as the war against Hamas protracts, Israel won’t be in any position to bolster Ukraine’s stockpile any time soon – another win for Putin.
Some defense experts also argue that there is a potential drawback for Moscow in all this.
“The downside is that the war could damage Israeli-Russian relations,” said Kaltenthaler. “Putin will try to avoid that, but it may be impossible for him to achieve that goal. The Gaza-related anti-U.S. messaging the Russians are flooding the world with implicates Israel, too. This fact is not lost on the Israeli government.”
Bryant also emphasized that the moment will come when Putin will need to make the hard decision as to which side he is on.
“I don’t think Putin can keep up this charade much longer, and I don’t think Netanyahu and the Israelis at this point will have the tolerance for any state that does not fully proclaim and show their alignment with Israel,” he said.
Whether or not – and how – Washington manages both a war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East is potential fodder for Moscow’s anti-U.S .rhetoric and serves Putin with precisely what he wants: discord and uncertainty, as funding remains at the mercy of a divided United States Congress.
According to Rhoades, the United States does have the capacity to manage its support for both Israel and Ukraine, especially if it can contain the wars from escalating into conflicts that would require U.S. boots on the ground – for example, avoiding an Article 5 scenario on the Eastern Front.
“Though involvement in a two-front war would certainly place a strain on resources, the type of military equipment required for the two conflicts in question is sufficiently different to avoid too much overlap,” she said. “Moreover, one development that has proven rather convenient in these circumstances was the moving of Israel from the auspices of European Command (EUCOM) to those of Central Command (CENTCOM) following the forging of the Abraham Accords. Having two different geographic combatant commands overseeing the two ongoing conflicts does make for slightly easier decision-making and allocation and deployment of resources. On the political willingness front, Israel and Ukraine are both very close allies of the United States, and the Biden administration has thus far articulated its intention to remain committed to supporting both, despite infighting in the House and Senate.”
Nevertheless, the situation is subject to change and uncertainty.
“It is very true that we are being spread thin when it comes to international conflict management, diplomacy, and financial and military support to our allies. However, if anyone is good at managing multi-region conflict, it is the U.S. The U.S., at least under the Biden administration, is and will remain fully committed to supporting both Israel and Ukraine,” Bryant added. “However, one drawback to our republic and its democratic change of power every four years is that our stated alignments, intentions, and strategies are subject to massive change at the whim of any incoming administration. How long that willingness lasts will be dictated in no small way by this next election—and who becomes the next POTUS.”
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