Leslie Ireland is the former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Intelligence and Analysis. She joined Treasury in 2010 after 25 years at CIA where she specialized in Iran, the Middle East and WMD. Prior to joining the Treasury Department, from 2008-2010 Ms. Ireland served as daily intelligence briefer to President. As the first DNI Iran Mission Manager, from 2005-2008, she served as the principal advisor to the DNI on Iran and was responsible for overseeing the intelligence process on Iran for the entire U.S. government.
The Cipher Brief: What is your impression of the President’s comments on Iran at the United Nations on Wednesday? He called Iran out as an enabler in Syria, re-iterated his reasoning behind walking away from the JCPOA and then also thanked Iran, along with Russia and Syria, in slowing expected action against terrorists in Idlib. Did you hear anything new, or detect any kind of shift in direction or strategy?
Ireland: I thought the President’s comments were consistent with a policy of calling out Iranian bad behavior (e.g. support for terrorism, ballistic missile development, enabling Assad, etc. ) These were areas that weren’t covered in the JCPOA, and their absence clearly vexed the Administration.
The Cipher Brief: What message did the President’s comments send to European partners?
Ireland: President Trump reiterated the November 5th deadline for the re-imposition of sanctions. In an interview yesterday with CNN, Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs, said that the EU, Russia and China are creating mechanisms to ensure trade with Iran continues regardless of U.S. secondary sanctions. After November 5th, I expect there will be discussions and negotiations over sanctions between the U.S. and its partners. There always is. And I think the calculus this time won’t be much different than it has been for previous administrations. Sanctions on the EU, Russia and/or China will be evaluated through the prism of the overall relationship, balancing the cost to other areas of cooperation with the potential benefits of secondary sanctions. President Trump also said the U.S. is working with countries to reduce their imports of Iranian oil. Reducing oil revenues is only part of the equation. Requiring that revenues stay in the local currency—renminbi, won, rupees, or yen—severely restricts Iran’s ability to access the hard currency it needs to address domestic economic challenges.
The Cipher Brief: What tops your list of concerns re: Iran right now? Former Deputy Director of the NSA Rick Ledgett wrote for The Cipher Brief this week that he wouldn’t be surprised by a potential retaliatory cyber attack against the U.S. after the U.S. walked away from the JCPOA.
Ireland: Iran has long depended on asymmetric warfare to counter what it perceives to be U.S. threats. It’s creation of Hezbollah and support for other proxy groups is a prime example. Cyber warfare is another asymmetric option. But Iran needs to be careful. It takes great pains to portray itself as the aggrieved party in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and will want to continue to do so. If Iran conducts a cyber attack it will likely take time to determine attribution and I have confidence that U.S. experts eventually would be able to attribute an attack back to Tehran. A cyber attack on the U.S. could have unintentional ripple effects internationally, increasing the risk that it could backfire.
