Admiral Mike Rogers (Ret.) served as Director of the NSA, commander of the U.S. Cyber Command. He also served as the Commander of the Tenth Fleet and Commander of the United States Fleet Cyber Command. He was also the director of intelligence for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
EXPERT Q&A — The Cipher Brief spoke to several experts who attended the just-concluded Munich Security Conference, which featured tensions and debate involving the U.S. stance towards Russia and Ukraine – in particular the launching of U.S.-Russia negotiations on the war with no European representation, as well as a speech from Vice President JD Vance that was sharply critical of European democracy.
Among those who offered their reflections from Munich was Admiral Mike Rogers, a former Director of the National Security Agency and Commander of the U.S. Cyber Command.
“We’re in a period of great agitation or churn,” Admiral Rogers told The Cipher Brief. “I think Europe is stepping back and asking itself: Does what we are seeing out of the Americans represent some sort of fundamental change, and do the Americans have a different view of their relationship with us?”
Admiral Rogers spoke with Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can watch the full conversation on the Cipher Brief YouTube channel.
The Cipher Brief: How would you describe the tone at the Munich conference?
Admiral Rogers: There is clearly lots of angst around this idea of what is the future in Ukraine, what is the role of Europe, what is the U.S. strategy, are they linked, how is Ukraine itself going to be involved in all this, what’s the Russian dimension to all this, just a lot of uncertainty. And quite frankly, a lot of angst and agitation among the Europeans at the moment.
Kelly: It seemed that the speech by Vice President JD Vance didn’t go over well in Europe, because the focus seemed to be on criticizing the allies and not necessarily on embracing or understanding or communicating the threat from Russia. How did you take that?
Admiral Rogers: I think the audience thought they were going to hear an American leader lay out a vision for Ukraine going forward, as well as trying to talk about the broader dynamics of the U.S.-European relationship. And that’s not what they heard. Instead, what they got was a U.S. view of domestic issues in Europe, which left a lot of Europeans here scratching their head. I think a lot of Europeans found that both frustrating and unsettling.
Listen to ‘Dispatches from Munich’ with General David Petraeus (Ret.) as he lays out Ukraine’s options while discussions take place between the U.S. and Russia on how to end the war – exclusively on The Cipher Brief’s digital channel on YouTube
Kelly: What are you hearing in conversations on the sidelines, about how Europe may now be rethinking its future collective security, with or without the U.S.?
Admiral Rogers: I think Europe is stepping back and asking itself: Does what we are seeing out of the Americans represent some sort of fundamental change, and do the Americans have a different view of their relationship with us? Or is this something that’s specific issue-focused?
Because remember, it’s not just Ukraine. Ukraine has been the focus here at the Munich Security Conference, but we’ve also got significant issues around tariffs, trade, economic dimensions. I think many Europeans in general are asking themselves, Does this mean that we have to create a different relationship with the Americans? If so, what would that relationship look like? What is our European strategy? I think there’s a strong consensus that they’re very agitated, unhappy and uncertain, but I don’t think there’s a consensus yet about, what should we do about it? I think that is the focus of the moment.
Kelly: You were head of the NSA for a number of years, and I know that you’ve been very active in the private sector since you’ve retired, too, in understanding the threats that are out there in cyber. How much are people even talking about that now? And are those issues of cooperation in cyber being pushed to the sidelines because of some of these other headlines, or are they being actively addressed?
Admiral Rogers: Cyber continues to be a clear dimension of security, both geopolitics as well as economic security. Prior to the start of the Munich Security Conference, Munich also hosts the Munich Cyber Security Conference. My takeaway from that Munich Cyber Security Conference was: lots of concern about whether the strategies that we’ve been using have been effective. If not, what do we need to do differently? And how might a different approach be shaped by concerns around counting on the U.S. as a partner? Are they going to embrace cybersecurity as a core area of interest, regardless of other things going on like Ukraine, tariffs, et cetera? I think the jury is still out on all that, to be honest.
Listen to Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management as he tells Cipher Brief COO Brad Christian how European leaders could be using seized Russian assets in ‘Dispatches from Munich’ only on The Cipher Brief’s digital channel.
Kelly: Is it fair to say that your assessment remains that the biggest nation states that are backing cyberattacks continue to be Russia, China, Iran and North Korea?
Admiral Rogers: Very much so. The big four we always used to talk about. With China, [the cyberespionage operations] Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon have really gotten more aggressive, being much more risky in the things they’re doing. The Russians, in terms of both scale and aggressiveness, but also the disinformation dimension, have always been so large. And then there are the North Koreans and the Iranians, plus criminal groups. And sadly, you see the dimensions between nation states and criminal groups starting to blur, where before we used to see them as very distinct, very separate. Now you clearly see relationships, you see them sharing tools, you see them sharing targets. That should really be of concern to us as we’re trying to develop strategies.
Kelly: Your takeaway from this year’s Munich Security Conference?
Admiral Rogers: We’re in a period of great agitation or churn, in the sense that Europeans don’t like some of the things they’re hearing. The thing that I am looking for is, if you’re unhappy, what is your counter strategy? What are you proposing to the U.S. as an alternative way ahead? What would you do? How would you bring things together? It’s not enough just to complain. You’ve got to come up with an alternative. And that’s what I’m waiting for personally.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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