The Impact of a Single Missile
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — An explosion last week, in the eastern Polish village of Przewodow, killed two people and created heightened concern about just how quickly […] More
Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category
How Dirty and Dangerous Will Putin Get in Ukraine?
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Russian officials are warning of a nuclear ‘dirty bomb’ threat as Moscow continues attacking energy and civilian targets in Ukraine. It’s the […] More
The Biggest Winner in Ukraine is Beijing
Toby Esterhase: “You’re an old spy in a hurry, George. You used to say they were the worst.” \”The Cipher Brief has become the most […] More
The Drone Series: A New Battle in the Air
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE: The presence of drones/UAV’s in armed conflicts as varied as Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine is not only influencing military tactics and strategy but it’s […] More
What the East-West Rift Over Ukraine Really Means
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Threats from Russia and its “ally” Belarus are still coming as the invasion of Ukraine grinds through its fifth month but where […] More
The Drone Series: Expanding Horizons for Drone Technology
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE: Superlatives have been piling up about a weapon of war that’s been around for decades, but has taken on new prominence across the battlefields […] More
This is How Putin’s Strategic Patience May Pay Off in Ukraine
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Russia is gradually beginning to prevail in Ukraine and the West is just starting to lose focus. Neither France and Germany nor […] More
The Waves left by the Sinking of the Moskva
EXPERT ANALYSIS — While the sinking of the Russian cruiser and Black Sea flagship Moskva is unquestionably the most eye-catching episode in the conflict at […] More
Energy’s Impact on Europe’s Moral Imperative
French President Emmanuel Macron is joining other European leaders in support of an EU Russian oil embargo according to French officials. French Finance Minister Bruno […] More
Rise of the New Hacker Army but Where’s the Battle?
The global outpouring of cyber assistance in the wake of a call from Ukraine’s digital transformation minister for a “hacker army” to launch cyberattacks against […] More
The Cruelty of Half Measures in Ukraine
Doug Wise, Former Deputy Director, Defense Intelligence Agency Douglas H. Wise served as Deputy Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency from August 2014 until August […] More
How Russians Can Bring an End to Putin’s Chekist State
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — “Nothing”, Fyodor Dostoevsky observed in Crime and Punishment, “is easier than to denounce the evildoer; nothing is more difficult than to understand […] More
With His only Option being Escalation, this is How Putin’s War Must End
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Vladimir Putin wanted this war. The “special military operation” launched in Ukraine, is just another step toward confrontation and conflict with the […] More
How Putin is Drawing the World into its Most Dangerous Time in History
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Putin has been sucked into the conquest and occupation of a hostile Ukraine; the very circumstance he has sought to avoid over […] More
China and the Global Power Play in Ukraine
As Russian troops continue to bombard Ukrainian cities and the Ukrainian government reports more than 2,000 people killed since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion last […] More
Ukraine and an Assessment of how a Bad Situation Could Get Much Worse
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a tragedy that, just a few months ago, many considered unthinkable – no, unimaginable: a […] More
‘Watch’ or ‘Stand Against’ the Digital Machinery of Aggression in Ukraine
OPINION — The machinery of aggression moves across the land of the people of Ukraine to their capital. There should be no words to argue […] More
Could This be Putin’s Big Tango?
OPINION – The diplomatic and military moves of world leaders can be akin to a tango, a basic pattern of steps incorporating long pauses and dramatic […] More
The US is Engaging in a Strategy to Share Intelligence on Russia More Broadly. Is it Worth the Risk?
As US and European diplomacy efforts to de-escalate tensions along the Ukraine border – where nearly 130,000 Russian troops have amassed – seem to have […] More
The Outlier: What if Putin’s Real Target isn’t Ukraine?
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — We have a long history of misreading Russian intentions. The classic example was the judgement by the British Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) […] More
Putin’s Risky Options in Ukraine
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — It is still more probable than not that Russian President Vladimir Putin will employ military force in the coming weeks. He is […] More
Anticipating Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Bilateral negotiations in Geneva between the US and the Russian Federation concluded without resolution of Russia’s “security guarantee” demands. The same result […] More
A Look at the U.S. Army’s Future Mission
Thousands of people are virtually gathering this week as the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) kicks off its annual conference focused on the […] More
OSINT Global Trendline Report: COVID and the Americas
The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Trend Line Report utilizes open source data on a quarterly basis to track trends around the world that impact national and global […] More