After six weeks of tension between China and India over a Chinese road building project on contested territory, neither side is prepared to back down. Known as the Doklam Plateau, this small area high up in the Himalayas where Bhutan, India, and China share a vaguely defined border, is now the center of a potential conflict with much larger geopolitical consequences.
A spokesman for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Colonel Wu Qian, told reporters on Monday that China would not withdraw or end the road building project, saying "Shaking a mountain is easy but shaking the People's Liberation Army is hard."
Wu went on to say that the precondition for talks to resolve the issue is for India to remove the 300 troops it has moved to the border, only 150 meters away from an equally sized contingent of Chinese troops. Wu said, "We strongly urge India to take practical steps to correct its mistake, cease provocations, and meet China halfway in jointly safeguarding the border region's peace and tranquility."
Such a precondition is a bitter pill for India to swallow. Locally, the Chinese road could have serious strategic implications for India’s defense of its home territory due to a geographic feature that leaves India vulnerable. Allowing the Chinese road project to continue could provide Beijing with an avenue for its troops to strike the “Chicken Neck,” a narrow strip of land connecting India’s northeastern states to the rest of the country that could be severed in the event of conflict. More broadly, backing down could have an impact on India’s regional standing as Delhi and Beijing vie for regional supremacy.
The road project could also allow China to conduct the same “salami slicing” seen in the South China Sea. Bit by bit, China could take pieces of Indian territory. To prevent this, India is reportedly reinforcing its position. According to on-the-ground reporting from the South China Morning Post, “New bunkers are being built, the ground is being mined to pre-empt Chinese attack, machine-gun nests are being placed at strategic points, and soldiers are performing battle drills at least twice a day,” though restraint is paramount, “We are under clear orders not to exacerbate the tensions,” said an Indian soldier.
This most recent build-up is nothing new. Over the past several years, both sides have expanded the capabilities of their border forces and maintain mechanized and air assets that can mobilize troops and supplies quickly in the event of conflict. For its part, India has switched from a purely defensive force structure to one with limited offensive striking ability in order to deter China.
The dispute has further implications as well. Historically, China and India’s relationship has been adversarial. They fought a war along a different part of their border in 1962 and have maintained a heavily militarized border ever since. Today, China and India compete for regional power, using their economic and military influence to strengthen bonds with smaller Asian nations.
The mixture of border tensions and greater geopolitical forces presents a situation where neither side can easily back down. But the great stakes involved also means neither side is spoiling for a fight. Michael Kugelman, the Deputy Director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, told The Cipher Brief, “A hot war between India and China could squander all the gains from their extensive economic diplomacy, and that would work against each country’s interests in a big way.”
To diffuse tensions, the two sides have quietly been discussing a resolution. Citing Indian officials, Reuters reported on Monday that “India's ambassador to Beijing is leading the effort to find a way for both sides to back down without loss of face.”
An upcoming BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) security dialogue held in Beijing on July 27-28 may also provide a high-level avenue for resolution. However, China has refrained from disclosing if the Doklam Plateau will be a topic of discussion, and it may stress its position that India must first withdraw its troops before talks can commence.
If the dispute continues, there is another opportunity for high-level discussions in the near future. A summit of BRICS leaders in Xiamen, China is scheduled for September. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have the opportunity to discuss Doklam and other contentious issues in the bilateral relationship.
While tough rhetoric from Beijing and Delhi has dominated the public discussion, there appears a strong commitment to high-level dialogue and a desire to avoid escalating to armed conflict. Even without shots fired, there can still be a winner and loser in terms of regional clout and economic gains as two great nations maneuver for geopolitical position. Whether tensions peter out or the two sides come to an agreement, historical animosity and the geopolitical stakes point to future flare-ups.
Will Edwards is an Asia-Pacific and defense analyst at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @_wedwards.
