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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

Export Controls Backfire: The China Innovation Paradox

How U.S. chip restrictions slowed Beijing - while accelerating the rise of a parallel AI ecosystem beyond Washington’s control

Export Controls Backfire: The China Innovation Paradox

DEEP DIVE — When the Biden administration rolled out its semiconductor export restrictions in October 2022, the logic seemed airtight: cut off [...] More

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The Open Source Report

Two men sitting in chairs, with UAE flags and framed art on the wall behind them.

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, February 2, 2026

UAE’s ‘Spy Sheikh’ bought secret stake in Trump company

Ukraine talks set for next week as cold strains battered energy grid

Top U.S., Israeli generals meet at Pentagon amid soaring Iran tensions

Pakistan forces kill 145 militants in two-day battle after wave of attacks across Balochistan

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Greenland’s Worth a Fight and Russia’s Trying to Start One

Emma Overell
Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The “quickest way for Russia to penetrate our naval defenses is steaming from the Arctic to the North Atlantic.” The Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap is the last place allied forces “have [...] More

The Rise of China's Strategic Soft Power and its Global Impact

Joey Gagnard
Nils Alstad

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – The United States is currently mired in a cycle of aggressive trade renegotiations and a transactional foreign policy that has alienated its most critical allies. By perceiving partners as free riders [...] More

News & Analysis

China’s Stunning Military Purge – and What It Means For Taiwan

China’s Stunning Military Purge – and What It Means For Taiwan

DEEP DIVE – President Xi Jinping’s latest purge of generals has eviscerated China’s military leadership, drawn comparisons to crackdowns carried out [...] More

Opinion

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

YOU’LL NEVER GUESS WHAT WE FOUND IN THE LATEST EPSTEIN DOCUMENT DUMP - The Cipher Brief. No, thankfully there are no invitations to island getaways or dinner parties with the former prince currently known as Mr. Mountbatten-Windsor. But for reasons we don’t entirely understand, the 3.5 million documents released on Friday include news summaries that had been produced for senior executives at places like the FBI or intelligence community inspector general offices. And if you search the archives, buried in some of those news summaries are snippets of Cipher Brief opinion pieces (totally unrelated to Epstein.) The Cipher [...] More

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Events

Live Events

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

From cyber vulnerabilities to supply chain risk, Cipher Brief Expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Counterintelligence Sandrea Hwang tells State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly why modern national security threats are no longer distant or abstract and why protecting data, infrastructure, and innovation now requires whole-of-society cooperation.

Cover Stories: Spies, Books & Entertainment


David McCloskey, former CIA Analyst turned novelist is out with his fourth book, The Persian, about an Iranian dentist who is recruited by Mossad to take on a dangerous mission inside Iran. Cover Stories Host Suzanne Kelly digs in on how McCloskey’s real-life Intelligence background fueled his latest novel, and discovers a few of McCloskey’s own secrets along the way.