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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

From the Caribbean to Jalisco, Trump Takes Aim at Cartels — But Will He Strike the Kingpins?

Despite rising body counts, U.S. strikes have yet to touch the billionaire crime bosses fueling the fentanyl crisis.

Soldiers of the Mexican Army stand guard as they secure an area during a military operation in Culiacan, Sinaloa State, Mexico, on September 19, 2024

DEEP DIVE — Eight weeks ago, Secretary of State Marco Rubio went to Mexico City, the epicenter of the global illegal drug trade, and declared, “The [...] More

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The Open Source Report

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (William Lai) delivers a national day address, during the National Day Ceremony, outside the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, on October 10, 2025.

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, October 31, 2025

Taiwan does not want China's 'one country, two systems', president says

U.S. Eyes Striking Venezuelan Military Targets Used for Drug Trafficking

Putin claims Russian troops have surrounded 2 Ukrainian cities, a claim Kyiv denies

US to Trim Forces in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia Starting Next Month

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Putin’s Strategic Failure: How the Ukraine War Is Eroding Russia From Within

Rob Dannenberg

And there is one sure thing about the fall of gods: they do not fall a little; they crash and shatter or sink deeply into green muck.- John Steinbeck, East of EdenEvil people don’t have songs. How is it, then, that the [...] More

RussiaUkraineEurope

Inside Xi Jinping’s Military Purge: Loyalty, Power, and Taiwan

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani

OPINION — Last week’s Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party witnessed a purge of China’s senior military leaders, culminating in over two years of the removal of senior military officials once loyal to President Xi [...] More

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News & Analysis

A ship crosses the Baltic Sea at sunrise

The War You Can’t See: Gray Zone Operations Are Reshaping Global Security

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE -- In the middle of the night, with no witnesses, a single ship flagged out of Hong Kong drags its anchor across the Baltic Sea. [...] More

Dave PittsInternationalNATOEspionagenational security

Opinion

A Fragile Truce at the Durand Line: Will the Afghanistan–Pakistan Ceasefire Last?

Sami Omari

A Fragile Truce at the Durand Line: Will the Afghanistan–Pakistan Ceasefire Last?

OPINION — One of the most enduring security issues in South Asia has been rekindled by the recent border conflicts between the Taliban-led [...] More

AfghanistanAlternative PerspectivesAsia

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Tapping a China Vibe in South Koreaplay icon

Tapping a China Vibe in South Korea

The Open Source Report

Book Reviews

Behind the Mask: The Politics of Hidden Intervention
Behind the Mask: The Politics of Hidden Intervention

Courage and Betrayal in the Heart of Hitler's Germany
Courage and Betrayal in the Heart of Hitler's Germany

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The Best National Security Gossip

RIGHT AND WONG: To say that there is a little sniping going on between federal government spokespeople and the media – might be underselling it just a bit. On Tuesday, Kevin Baron, a founding editor for Defense One who has also worked for Politico, Stars and Stripes, and the National Journal (and also served as VP of the Pentagon Press Association) re-posted on social media a clip of the President speaking to the crew of USS George Washington in Yokosuka, Japan with Trump saying “Look at all the fake news back there.” Baron’s perspective was that “Trump has been training the rank-and-file military to hate the press since [...] More

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Events

Live Events

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

Shawn Chenoweth has one of the most fascinating titles in government, Director of Cognitive Advantage at the National Security Council. Sean explains the concept of cognitive advantage, the challenges of measuring success, and talks about the 'Kill Web' concept, which highlights the interconnectedness of information and cognitive processes in modern warfare.

Cover Stories: Spies, Books & Entertainment


David McCloskey, former CIA Analyst turned novelist is out with his fourth book, The Persian, about an Iranian dentist who is recruited by Mossad to take on a dangerous mission inside Iran. Cover Stories Host Suzanne Kelly digs in on how McCloskey’s real-life Intelligence background fueled his latest novel, and discovers a few of McCloskey’s own secrets along the way.