Hard-line cleric Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s presidential election on Saturday in a move that is expected to bolster the conservative legacy of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The decision is not expected to derail ongoing negotiations aimed at restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, even though Mr. Raisi himself is under US sanctions over accusations of human rights abuses. Many voters stayed away from the polls as the outcome had been predicted for months with many progressive candidates barred from running.
“The Islamic Republic has entered a post-revolutionary dynamic in which a fading revolutionary generation seeks to ensure that the rising political leadership sustains their revolutionary ideals,” says Norman T. Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI and Cipher Brief Expert. “The regime’s decision to bar so many candidates and the low turnout make this election a historic embarrassment for the regime and its supporters.”
The Cipher Brief talked with Roule about what the election means and what it doesn’t mean when it comes to relations with the west, the progressive movement within Iran and the election’s impact on the oil markets.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
Norman T. Roule served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, to include IC engagement on Iran issues with senior policy makers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
The Cipher Brief: What are the main messages from this election?
Roule: I can think of handful. First, the transition of Iran’s leadership to a post-revolutionary architecture - whose ultimate design may not yet be known to the Supreme Leader himself - is now formally underway. Second, the historic low turnout and unprecedented number of protest ballots demonstrated a deep lack of support for the regime by a large portion of Iran’s population. The regime’s stability may be intact, but its lack of legitimacy has never been clearer. Next, the regime’s rejection of so many candidates leaves one with the sense that its guardians worried that another Rouhani-like figure at this time was too great a risk. Next, Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency likely means that the Supreme Leader Khamenei’s health is not in immediate peril and that the latter believes Raisi will spend some time in the job before he will be put forward as Khamenei’s successor. Last, such a rigged election underscores the modest role played by public opinion in Iranian decision making. While the regime monitors public views carefully, it clearly ignored the wishes of millions of its population to ensure power.
The Cipher Brief: Do you rule out a return of a more moderate Iranian president in the future?
Roule: It would be easy to say that nothing can be ruled out, especially given that many Iranians would support a more moderate president and we did have the example of President Khatemi in 1997. But I think it would be more accurate to say that the Supreme Leader, President Raisi, and the Revolutionary Guards will use their control of the new administration to prevent that from happening.
The Cipher Brief: What does Raisi’s election mean for the Iranian people? What does their future hold?
Roule: Raisi’s victory means four, perhaps eight years of political, social, and economic stagnation for a generation that has already endured decades of hardship and oppression. Those Iranians who seek a more moderate society view this election with disappointment approaching despair. But Iran’s population is not a monolith. Although Raisi was defeated in the 2017 presidential election, he did receive just under 16 million votes at that time. He reportedly received more than 17 million votes in this election. Even if the vote tallies have been embellished in his favor, Iran’s society appears to have a growing split between a motivated right and a dispirited left. Our coverage of Iran’s polity tends to focus on the latter, and I think this may weaken our understanding of actual electorate. This lack of appreciation for the right in Iran may also contribute to a sense that with greater engagement by the West, we will moderate Tehran’s political dynamic.
The Cipher Brief: What does the low voter turnout in this election tell us about Iran’s electorate?
Roule: Raisi ended up winning just under 18 million votes, taking more than 15 million votes more than his nearest rival and about two million votes more than he did in his failed 2017 run. In addition to voter apathy, the election saw around four million voided ballets. A large portion of these voided ballets appear to have been protest votes.
Turnout was quite low despite the electorate having grown by about three million people since the 2017 presidential election. In 2021, only 48.8 percent of Iran’s voters bothered to cast ballots and that is about 25 percent less than in 2017. There were numerous reports on social media of empty polling stations. I expect the regime will use COVID and other issues to explain the low turnout but there is no question that this was a rigged election and Iran’s population responded accordingly. The irony is that Tehran has long claimed that high voter turnout was an expression of popular support for the system of the Islamic Republic.
The Cipher Brief: What happened to dissent in this election? Why was there no significant unrest?
Roule: This election saw many signs of dissent but not unrest. In addition to the record low turnout, the second largest number of ballots submitted were protest votes or marred or blank forms. Thus, “dissent” was the second ranking winner of the election.
This doesn’t mean that support for more moderate candidates doesn’t exist. But such candidates were barred from running and Iran’s left has struggled to produce a charismatic leader. As I have often said, Iran’s opposition remains leaderless, rudderless, and lacks cohesion to labor or security elements. Conversely, Iran’s right learned from their failure in 2017 and security forces appear well-resourced and loyal.
The Cipher Brief: You have often reminded our readers that Iran’s president has little influence over issues of greatest concern to the U.S. Will the presidency grow stronger under Raisi? And what risks does he face in the position that could threaten his ability to become Supreme Leader?
Roule: Iran’s hardliners, especially in the Revolutionary Guard, will see Raisi as someone they can trust far more than outgoing President Hassan Rouhani. This trust may translate into a larger voice within the regime, but he will still be subordinate to the Supreme Leader and, on some issues, even the Revolutionary Guards.
I think we should also consider the possibility that we may see further changes in Iran’s political architecture, if ruling hardliners believe such changes will sustain their power. For example, what if the presidency is abolished in favor of a parliamentary system? What if the Supreme Leader dies and is replaced by a fatwa council? Both ideas have been discussed in the past. There is no evidence either will happen soon.
In terms of risks to Raisi, this is complicated. I don’t think he believes he will be able to dramatically turn around the economy or build a power base within Iran’s left. So, anything better than avoiding a conventional conflict with the U.S, a collapse of the economy or countrywide massive unrest may be good enough in the mind of hardliners. Indeed, maintaining a tough line on social, economic, and security issues ensures the support of the architecture that the Supreme Leader has installed to select his successor.
