The Cipher Brief’s Bennett Seftel sat down with Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution to discuss ISIS’ recent battlefield losses and what to expect from the ISIS threat moving forward.
The Cipher Brief: What is your assessment of ISIS’ overall strength and influence in Syria and Iraq?
Daniel Byman: ISIS has been hit hard. The loss of territory and associated resources is considerable, and much of its fundraising and recruitment have dried up. Part of the reason for its problems is that it is losing on the battlefield, and this is creating a dangerous cycle for the group.
TCB: How have ISIS’ battlefield losses impacted its ability to attract recruits?
DB: ISIS pushed the idea that it was a "winner" in its propaganda, and now even its own propaganda admits that it is losing. As a result, it is less attractive to many potential recruits and funders. There is plenty out there on social media for propaganda, but the appeal is diminished because of the group's quite real losses
TCB: How much of a threat are ISIS-directed attacks in Europe and the U.S., mounted by foreign fighters returning to their home countries?
DB: International terrorism becomes more attractive in this environment, as the group has fewer options and needs to show its followers that it is striking back. However, European and U.S. security services remain vigilant and have stopped many plots. Some may succeed, of course, as we cannot expect security services to be perfect. Returning fighters should be, and are, a top concern for security services, as they are more indoctrinated and dangerous.
TCB: There has been speculation of an ISIS-al Qaeda reconciliation. What is the likelihood of that occurring?
DB: Both organizations suffer from weaknesses, but they differ fundamentally on both strategy and tactics. However, many of the foot soldiers could easily move back and forth, so it is possible either that a new leader might emerge who draws the bulk of recruits from both, or that one of the two groups is so weakened that the other takes over much of its cadre.
TCB: Once the battle to retake Mosul concludes, what can the U.S. do to help ensure that the city does not fall back under ISIS’ control?
DB: The United States needs to ensure that there is some effective form of local governance after ISIS is pushed out of the city. There is no magic formula: it will have to be a mix of local stakeholders, and some will work with criminal elements or meddling foreign powers. But a modicum of stability is necessary.
TCB: Is it possible to really defeat the threat posed by groups such as ISIS and al Qaeda?
DB. A true "defeat" in the short term seems unlikely, as the broader jihadist movement remains robust. However, as happened with left-wing groups, the broader narrative may fail and the groups that embrace it may ultimately be discredited.
