As the world reacts with horror to Friday's terror attack in Paris coming so shortly after the downing of the Russian-operated A321M over the Sinai, it should be clear to even the most casual observer that the piecemeal and divided international effort to deal with violent radical Islam in general and the Islamic State (ISIS) in particular is inadequate. Recent events show that the scope of the threat is increasing, as is its lethality. The human crisis, as illustrated by the number of displaced persons in the Middle East and refugees arriving in Europe, is reaching catastrophic proportions and threatens, among other political effects, to break up European unity. Time has come for dramatic measures, starting with the building of a western-led (but inclusive of Russia) military alliance to attack the ISIS "caliphate" and destroy its combat capability, a renewed international intelligence and law enforcement efforts to track down and neutralize the leadership of ISIS and related leaders and propagandists providing material or political support to violent radical Islam. This intelligence effort—critical to long-term success against the evil of violent Islam—will require rebuilding some of the surveillance capabilities dismantled in the past ten years. Finally, religious leaders around the whole need to exert moral authority to condemn the warped and violent interpretation of Islam promulgated by ISIS, Al Qaeda and their ilk. Similarly, the leadership of primarily Muslim states, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, for example, must unequivocally condemn the violent interpretation of Islam and commit to supporting the international military, intelligence, and law enforcement coalition.
On 14 November 2015, French President Francois Hollande called the ISIS attacks in Paris an “act of war.” The previous day’s attacks were clearly coordinated and inspired if not directed by ISIS. Further, the attacks represent a maturing of ISIS’ terrorist plans and intentions reminiscent of al-Qaeda pre-9/11. In our view the assault against France directed by an external power, even if not a traditional nation-state, should present grounds for the invocation of Article V of the NATO Charter calling for combined NATO military action against the aggressor, in this case ISIS in Syria and Iraq. ISIS’ presence is manifested most clearly in its declared “caliphate,” but the target set for a military response should also include ISIS’ leadership and operational networks around the world. As weary as the United States might be after nearly 15 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, the type of military action that only NATO led by the U.S. can bring to bear needs to be an essential element in any strategy to defeat ISIS. There can be no “coalition of the willing” or meaningful international military effort unless such an effort is built and led by the United States and NATO. If you build it they will come. If you do not, they won’t.
This is not to argue that military intervention in Syria and re-intervention in Iraq is the final answer but it is a critical element in the success of an international intelligence and law enforcement effort, as well as a program to defeat the ideology of violent Islamic extremism. The military effort requires World War II victory conditions and decisive effort. The goal must be nothing less than the dismantling of the false caliphate and eradication of ISIS, al-Qaeda, and all supporters of this existential evil. That requires a World War II like mentality where we need to recognize there is going to be collateral damage to innocents, but that is an essential price of victory. What many have termed as “the Greatest Generation” did not shy away from carpet bombing, fire bombing, and ultimately the use of nuclear weapons in order to achieve total victory over a global Axis enemy. The same mentality needs to guide the effort against violent Islamic extremism. After annihilating ISIS and the caliphate and achieving the equivalent of unconditional surrender as a condition of victory, there must be swift justice for leaders of violent extremism evil, assuming some are captured. A Nuremburg like international tribunal should be formed to dispense the justice.
Equally important in a comprehensive effort to eradicate violent Islamic extremism is a re-invigorated international intelligence and law enforcement effort. As the violent ideology of groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda has spread now to more than 80 countries worldwide, largely through the use of the internet. In addition to being a tool for propagating its ideology, the Internet is an essential forum for terrorist networks to communicate and coordinate their attack planning.
In the years since 9/11 there has been far too much media, government, and judicial focus on alleged violations of civil liberties. Many programs essential for intelligence and law enforcement professionals to use to identify terrorist operatives, support networks, and attack plans have been outlawed or the private sector partners so critical to monitoring subversive use of the internet no longer cooperate with intelligence and law enforcement. This has created a huge blind spot that terrorists have used to conduct attacks such as we saw in Paris with Charlie Hedbo in January and now the attacks on 13 November. We can no longer afford such myopia. Certainly there will be some abuses of government-sponsored surveillance as with any tool used by humans, but this risk is minor compared to the price we pay for not being able to effectively monitor the principal tool used by violent extremists. This cannot be a U.S. effort alone, it needs to be an international effort with the full participation, at a minimum, of the members of the European Union where personal privacy legislation is a huge impediment to law enforcement monitoring of terrorist operatives and networks resident in Europe.
Moreover, the international coalition needs to include Russian intelligence. Our differences over the Ukraine and Putin’s governance model in Russia notwithstanding, Russian military and intelligence structures are on the ground in the principal theater of operations Iraq and Syria. Russian cooperation is also essential in identifying and neutralizing violent Islamic extremist efforts in Central Asia and ultimately Afghanistan. Lamentably, the U.S. counterterrorism effort has become too dependent upon drones, sensors and other science and technology toys over traditional human sources and networks. There needs to be a concerted international effort to recruit human sources and seed them in to terrorist networks both for early warning but also to degrade and monitor those networks over the long run. The British security and intelligence services ran such a program to neutralize the Irish Republican Army’s terrorist networks over time. The effort against violent Islamic extremism needs to be more international and may even require an international counterterrorism center.
Finally, there needs to be a concerted effort against the ideology of violent Islamic extremism. This at a minimum will require strong efforts by the leaders of Islamic to reject perversion of their religion. The leaders of the influential Muslim states that either serve as the pool of recruits from which terrorists draw their operatives or whose citizens provide donations that support violent extremists must step up and make their owns statements rejecting violent Islamic extremism and energetically policing their populations to eliminate the support base used by terrorists. These countries must also be willing to contribute the international military coalition both in terms of troops and financing but also logistical and basing support.
What we are calling for will not be easy. Building an effective coalition against the Axis powers in WWII was also not easy. The time is right to begin the effort. Al Qaeda made a serious effort to acquire weapons of mass destruction and likely continues the effort. ISIS makes no secret of their aspiration to acquire weapons of mass destruction to conduct genocide against apostates and have likely already used captured stocks of Syrian army mustard gas against opponents in Syria. It is important for the West to recognize the apocalyptic nature of violent Islamic extremism particularly as represented by ISIS. There is no doctrinal distinction any longer between attacking the near and far enemies. ISIS is doing both and effectively. Their interpretation of religion is determined to prove that the world is in the Biblical and Quranic “End of Days.” They must provoke the US and Russian into a war that will conclude with a great final battle, Armageddon in Dabiq, Syria. ISIS seeks not to delay but spark the battle of all battles because they believe God is on their side and that they will prevail in the end. Logic and reason have nothing to do with their thinking. There is no negotiating with them and we need to recognize this and act with the type of resolution and determination that our fathers did a generation ago when defeating the Axis. Are we going to wait until they bring a weapon of mass destruction to New York or London to begin their apocalypse?
