On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, alongside U.S. President Barack Obama, made a landmark visit to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. His appearance marked the first by a Japanese Prime Minister at Pearl Harbor while accompanied by a U.S. president. Abe also became the first sitting Prime Minister to visit the USS Arizona Memorial, where he and President Obama laid wreaths and paid tribute to the U.S. servicemen who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing of the naval base in 1941. This visit mirrors President Obama’s visit to Hiroshima, Japan with Abe in May – the first by a sitting U.S. President.
The two leaders made brief remarks at the conclusion of their visit. “I offer my sincere and everlasting condolences to the souls who lost their lives here,” PM Abe said, and called the U.S. – Japan alliance, an “alliance of hope.” President Obama declared of U.S.- Japan relations, “Our alliance has never been stronger”, and that he hopes “together, we send a message to the world that there is more to be won in peace than in war.”
Earlier this month, The Cipher Brief’s Will Edwards analyzed the current state of the U.S. – Japan Alliance, and what the future holds for the partnership under an incoming-President Donald Trump in January.
At the end of this month, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be the first leader from his nation to visit the Pearl Harbor memorial in Hawaii. The visit coincides with the 75th anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which led to the U.S. entry into World War Two. It also comes just months after President Barack Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the Hiroshima memorial that commemorates the victims of the first nuclear attack. Both visits serve to symbolize the strength of the U.S.-Japanese relationships over the years.
Since Japan’s reemergence as an independent nation in 1952 and its return to an equal diplomatic footing with the United States, the two nations have slowly but surely built on economic and security partnerships that have enriched both nations and advanced regional stability.
Economics
Following the end of World War II, U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) was pivotal to Japans’ efforts to rebuild, and the United States’ own growing wealth provided a welcome export market for Japanese goods. Over time, as Japan became an economic powerhouse, it in turn directed its FDI to the U.S.—famously exemplified by the purchase of a majority stake in Rockefeller Center in New York by Japanese investors in 1989. The U.S. is Japan’s largest destination for exports, with a value of $125 billion in 2015, and the second largest for imports, with a 2015 value of $62.4 billion dollars.
Tokyo is eager to hit the ground running with the new American president in order to stimulate its moribund economic growth. Abe was the first world leader to meet President-elect Donald Trump in November, and there are reports he could do so again in January.
While the two nations enjoy many bilateral advantages for both trade and foreign direct investment, they are currently divided on whether to pursue the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that would seek to deregulate and reduce barriers for all 12 nations who are part of the agreement. However, President-elect Trump’s vocal preference for bilateral arrangements over the multi-nation TPP could set the tone for economic relations in the near future.
Experts say the U.S. will need to set a decisive course early on. Thomas Cynkin, Vice President of the Daniel Morgan Academy, told The Cipher Brief, “Absent a regional trade framework, the Trump Administration should consider working vigorously to forge bilateral trade agreements with Asian countries that are appropriately accommodating to U.S. economic interests. This would avoid yielding the field to China and allowing Beijing to exert disproportionate influence, including rulemaking, on Asia trade.”
For Japan’s part, the uncertainty of Trump’s trade policy leaves them in a wait and see mode. Frank Januzzi, President and CEO of the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation told The Cipher Brief: “I don’t think (Abe) will make any of these decisions until he knows who is on the Trump team—for example, who is going to be the U.S. trade representative—and really gets a better sense of where Trump is headed on trade and investment.”
Security
Since the alliance treaty was revised in 1960, the two countries have been committed to mutual defense. But this treaty has been mostly a one-sided arrangement. Article 9 of Japan’s constitution stipulates that it cannot maintain its own armed forces for the purpose of overseas warfare, meaning it could not aid the U.S. or its forces if it were attacked outside of Japan. However, since 2014, Abe has pushed for a reinterpretation of Article 9 that would allow Japan’s Self Defense Force to be more active overseas. As North Korea advances its nuclear and ballistic missile technologies and China asserts territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, many in Tokyo and Washington believe the time is right for an overhaul of Article 9. While Washington has quietly favored expanding Japan’s regional security role, Tokyo remains divided over such a drastic change to a post-war constitution that has served it well.
As Japan and the U.S. look to the future of the security alliance, the early uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric appears to be subsiding. According to Januzzi, “…the meeting went a long way—according to the after action reports—toward establishing a rapport between the two leaders, and also reassuring the Prime Minister that Donald Trump respects the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance and is committed to the relationship.” Such assurances and personal rapport will be crucial to fostering cooperation on military measures, such as missile defense and promotion of freedom of navigation.
Conclusion
A report by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and CSIS on the U.S.-Japan alliance identified two foundational pillars for its longevity. First, the two nations “need to strengthen and sustain public support in both countries [for the alliance]” and second “both countries need to take action to support their economies to resume economic growth in the case of Japan and to sustain recovery from the recession of 2008 in the case of the United States.” For more than 60 years, the two countries have thrived together. With an uncertain future in a rapidly changing region, retaining that cohesion becomes ever more important.
Will Edwards is an international producer at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @_wedwards.
