As further evidence is sought, the latest attack has clearly heightened tensions further between the U.S. and Iran with President Donald Trump tweeting that the U.S. is ‘locked and loaded depending on verification.’
There have been numerous instances over the past several months of what is believed to be heightened Iranian aggression after the U.S. pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 and has imposed greater sanctions on Iran.
In light of increased actions, The Cipher Brief asks what is the role of U.S. leadership? Cipher Brief expert and former Acting Director of the CIA John McLaughlin says that the U.S. has entered a new phase of global order as grey zone military tactics have achieved important policy goals with little fear of response.
We asked Cipher Brief expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran Norm Roule to share his insights on what key responsibilities U.S. leadership – to include Congress and the Administration - has in addressing increasing aggressive actions by Iran and what the impact on global markets might be if there is no change in the status quo.
The Cipher Brief: What is the role of the U.S. Congress as acts of aggression that are believed to be backed by Iran, continue?
Roule: The Iran problem needs a bipartisan solution which respects the equities of our regional allies. The easiest thing to do in Washington is to oppose policy or call for unrealistic solutions. It should be possible to support the benefits of the Iran nuclear deal while calling for punishment against Iran for its crimes. Congress also needs to support actions which protect the region, but also Americans and American interests in this volatile area.
The Cipher Brief: Why is the UN Security council not taking any action?
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
Russia has blocked any UNSC action against Iran since the Obama administration. Moscow has prevented or fatally delayed multiple investigations into Iran’s provision of weaponry, to include advanced missile and drone technology to its surrogates.
The Cipher Brief: With Congress and the UN Security Council staying quiet, what message does this send to Putin, Xi and other dictators?
Roule: The message is that grey zone military tactics can achieve important policy goals with little fear of any response from a fractured international community. Worse, the U.S. Congress will actually deny the tools needed by regional countries to deter aggressors. For example, there are some in Congress who would deny intelligence support to the Saudis on Yemen. Is it really wise to make it harder for the Saudis to locate and destroy missiles and drones before they are launched against the Kingdom (which is home to tens of thousands of Americans)?
The Cipher Brief: What are the short and long-term financial effects of these kinds of attacks on the gas and oil markets if not brought under control somehow?
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
For those who closely follow the region, these attacks are not a surprise, and this will have been baked into their thinking. For those who were surprised, there is now a new and long-term element of uncertainty regarding oil production and a greater expectation of conflict. Events in other oil producing countries like Nigeria, Libya, Iraq, and even Venezuela, will take on even greater importance.
The Cipher Brief: Are we entering a phase where the international community is effectively unable to push back against aggressor states?
Roule: The failure of the UN or EU to play any role in constraining Iran strikes uncomfortable chords with the 1930s. In that time, a combination of U.S. isolationism, League of Nations impotence, and Western European unwillingness to risk conflict produced a series of bad outcomes which led to a broader conflict. Iran is neither Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, nor the Soviet Union. But its actions against its neighbors do suggest similarities in behavior.
A second issue is a failure to develop a response to grey zone tactics, whether to proxy operations or cyberattacks. Until we develop better tactics, revisionist countries will continue to act against their neighbors.
The U.S. should launch an international diplomatic campaign to outlaw the Quds Force. Such an organization has never existed before and its operations routine violate international law and norms. Any successful effort to defang Iran will require action against the Quds Force.
The Cipher Brief: What would you tell the President if you were going to brief him on this?
Roule: First on Iran, I would underscore that since 2003, Iran has paid an insufficient price for its regional actions. The architecture of deterrence is thin. Thus, the issue is less what happened with the latest drone strike over the weekend, but more about why this won’t happen again tomorrow. Iran has plenty of surrogates to throw against the region. Just as there could be no nuclear deal until hardliners saw they would benefit from same, there can be no reduction of Iran’s regional actions until hardliners directly suffer for their actions.
Next, I would say that Iran’s actions and rhetoric will sharpen as the pain of sanctions is felt. Iran has no choice but to play a short-term game in which it seeks to inject turbulence into international energy and commodity markets in an effort to force other countries to press Washington to end sanctions.
Also, I would say that there will likely be little interest among Iran’s hardline leadership in negotiations for some time. Sanctions pain is serious, but not yet so serious that they see regime instability on the horizon. Iran’s mendacious Foreign Minister Javad Zarif will certainly be empowered to discuss modest changes within the existing JCPOA framework in exchange for substantial sanctions relief. He will also be willing to exchange detainees. But success here would mean a return to a nuclear deal (which has advantages) which protects Iran from the only three sanctions capable of undermining the regime – oil exports, repatriation of oil revenues, and use of international financial channels. Any meaningful effort to roll back Iran from the region won’t work via diplomacy. And since we want to avoid a war, this only leaves economic pressure.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
Regarding our partners, I would stress the importance of our European allies. We need their support and they need to be involved in any response. At the same time, we need to be clear-eyed. With the exception of the UK, Europe has shown little inclination to respond to Iran’s regional ventures. This posture is unlikely to change until Europe believes Iran’s actions threaten its economic stability. Perhaps the latest drone attack will do this.
I would also note the importance of standing with our Arab and Israeli partners. They can’t see themselves as being alone on this issue, but they need to protect their (and our) people. It is unrealistic to think that any advisor to Saudi Arabia’s King Salman is suggesting that the Saudi response should be to sit back and allow Iran to attack the Kingdom unpunished. If the region sees that the international community takes these attacks seriously, the victims of Iran’s aggression will be less likely to undertake independent actions which will have their own secondary consequences. But if they believe that they stand alone, or that the U.S. can’t be counted on when it really matters, they will go their own way. The last time the Saudis faced Iranian missiles, a threat from Yemen, a hostile Congress, a weak UN, and a supportive U.S. president, Riyadh responded by buying Chinese ballistic missiles. Is it unrealistic to think that the Kingdom will decide to obtain such deterrents in the present time?
In terms of warning, if it is proven that these attacks came from Iraq, then the Lebanonization of Iraq becomes a reality. In addition to the impact this will have on our bilateral political and commercial ties with Baghdad, this will have consequences for Kuwait, Jordan, and our own campaign against ISIS. The Office of the Secretary of Defense should consider what such a scenario would mean in regards to our regional military investments and planning.
Don’t miss your opportunity to engage with national security experts like Norm Roule at The Cipher Brief’s 2020 Threat Conference March 22-24 in Sea Island, GA. Seats are LIMITED, so apply for yours today.
Read also Deadlier Skies: The Risks and Benefits of Drone Technology
Read more from Cipher Brief expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the ODNI, Norm Roule, here.
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