PAJU, SOUTH KOREA - JULY 19: A U.S. soldier crossed the military demarcation line separating the two Koreas without authorization. (Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)
Update 8/16 - After this story was published, North Korea issued a statement saying that Pvt. Travis King told North Korean authorities that he “harbored ill feelings against inhuman mistreatment and racial discrimination within the U.S. Army.”
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – North Korea has yet to provide clarity on the status of U.S. Army Private Travis King after the 23-year-old skipped his flight out of South Korea in July, joined a tour group near the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, and sprinted across the border into North Korea.
What has followed has been a period of silence.
The United Nations has reached out and Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said last week, that “the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) has responded to United Nations Command (UNC),” telling reporters that North Korea’s return message was simply an “acknowledgment” of the query but offered no details as to King’s condition or whereabouts.
“This is going to cost us a lot as the North Koreans probably won’t be in any rush to give him back because he is leverage,” said Cipher Brief Expert Daniel Hoffman, a former senior CIA officer and three-time station chief. “North Koreans don’t need to have any (immediate) discussions about this. They will decide what they want.”
The United States has not classified Pvt. King as a prisoner of war (POW), a designation that mandates that captives receive medical care and the chance to send messages home.
In terms of hostages, the policy is much more straightforward. The U.S. does not make concessions nor pay ransom. But the circumstances are much more nebulous in the case of a political prisoner – or a defector.
“At this point, it is a diplomatic issue. It is out of the Pentagon’s hands and into the hands of the White House,” Hoffman explained.
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“The other big question is, what does this guy want? We assume he wants to return to the U.S., but we don’t know what he wants,” Hoffman continued. “Maybe he does, but maybe he doesn’t.”
So, what happens next?
Relations between the two adversaries remain at an especially low point. Last year, leader Kim Jong Un increased its frequency of missile tests, prompting the U.S. to ramp up its own nuclear contingency strategies with South Korea.
And without diplomatic ties, Washington historically relies on go-betweens and back channels for communications. The U.S. has previously turned to Sweden as an intermediary, as the country had an embassy in the North Korean capital. But Stockholm pulled its diplomats out of the country amid the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
But experts say there are other options. North Korea retains a United Nations mission in New York which has also been used as a formal route for discussions.
“There is a good chance the North Koreans will just blow us off until they decide what they want to do with him,” said Jason Amerine, a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel who was previously stationed at South Korea’s Joint Security Area.
“The United Nations Command has ongoing meetings with North Korea, both formal and informal, and we can continue to bring this up. If he (King) is kept on the books as a soldier, then the DoD would work through the U.N. Command, the Department of State and South Korean officials. The DoD wouldn’t be talking directly to North Korea; it would be through the U.N. Command.”
Anthony Ruggiero, a Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Senior Fellow who served as Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and as NSC Director for North Korea, noted that the ongoing Korean War also provides ongoing military communications channels.
“It can be a direct or indirect route,” he said, concurring that the “New York Channel” via the U.N. is traditionally the most viable option.
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According to Hoffman, the intelligence community is likely working diligently to collect as much information as possible on King, where he is being held and how he is being treated, which is challenging in a nation like North Korea.
Yet ultimately, the trajectory of how the talks regarding King will unfold lies in the hands of the North Koreans and whether he is considered a defector – which could enable him to live in the North, albeit as a disinformation asset – or as an unlawful trespasser, which would likely position the soldier as a bargaining chip.
“The North Koreans will question him, maybe get a lot of information out of him that might be of some value to them,” Hoffman said. “And they won’t be in any rush to send him back to the United States.”
Typically, soldiers who fail to show up for duty are deemed AWOL for thirty days, Amerine said, and could be considered a defector. A formal U.S. classification of King as a defector would also affect how discussions between the two countries play out.
“One way this could play out is if he goes to North Korea and says he defected,” noted Amerine. “They could then torture him for years to make sure it is for real or have him do a propaganda video talking about how terrible the West is – at that point, North Korea could make him a citizen and deny any further diplomatic requests, which puts the U.S. in a peculiar position.”
If it is determined that King was of sound mind when he crossed the border, Amerine pointed out; he could be administratively discharged. Or officials could continue to press for his release in which he could subsequently face a court martial on return.
“If (King) starts making propaganda videos, there is little we can do. He would still technically be on the U.S. Wanted List as a deserter and could be arrested, unless North Korea was to give him some kind of diplomatic status,” Amerine said. “King is still a soldier, and we have a duty to determine his current status and to continue to seek his release. Our promise to all our soldiers is to get them home, regardless of what’s in their personnel file, good or bad. We must continue to seek his release until we are certain of his status and intentions.”
One approach that is likely being ruled out, is a military rescue operation.
“They (the U.S.) are not going to send Special Forces across the DMZ to rescue King,” said Dan O’Shea, a former Navy SEAL commander who served as the coordinator for the hostage working group at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. “That would launch a war between North and South Korea. The U.S. doesn’t have a whole lot of options right now.”
As Ruggiero points out, there is no standard playbook when it comes to countries without formal ties, holding U.S. nationals.
“It will likely go one of two ways. There could be a quick resolution where they (North Koreans) walk (Travis) across the DMZ again and declare him someone else’s problem. The alternative is no negotiations. But why would they give up an opportunity to potentially have a senior official go to Pyongyang or pick up conversations with Kim and the U.S. where things left off?
This could provide an opportunity for a direct conversation,” he added. “But at this point, North Korea is in the driver’s seat.”
This report is by Cipher Brief freelance reporter Hollie McKay
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