The very public escalation of tensions comes as the two countries face critical issues that require cooperation, including the current global pandemic, piracy of the sea, international terrorism and proliferation.
The Cipher Brief spoke with Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, former special advisor to the Director of National Intelligence, to get a gut check on where we could be headed and what is at stake if escalation with China leads to future engagement.
The Cipher Brief: Is the US really in a rapidly escalating tit for tat with China right now?
Detrani: I think we are. We are seeing significant escalation, but a lot of that is on China’s part. It’s the South China Sea, intellectual property theft, the labor camps in Xinjiang, and, now, the national security legislation in Hong Kong that is affecting the one country, two system policy.
My sense is that the US is responding and reacting to that. It’s also the US telling the international community, “Let’s be more responsive to some of this behavior on the part of China and not just make this a series of US-China issues. This is global.” We’re seeing more of that from the United Kingdom recently, with the government making strong comments and making some policy moves to sanction China in response to the Hong Kong national security law. Overall, yes, there is significant escalation going on and a lot of it is due to China’s very assertive and aggressive behavior.
The Cipher Brief: What are you going to be watching for now in terms of a response from China over the US coming out so publicly on this issue?
Detrani: I think the most recent US response from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is putting a real marker down to get China’s attention. Four years ago, there was an arbitration on the issue from the United Nations based on the Law of the Sea, which China is a signatory to, that ruled in favor of the Philippines, and China just walked away.
As we’ve seen over the years, the militarization of these reefs turned into islands in the South China Sea is China saying, “Not only do we not care about the United Nations Arbitration Court’s decision, we’re just going to intensify our sovereignty over these islands and reefs” based on Qing dynasty maps, they had to go back hundreds of years to find, in order to say, “This is ours.”
China has taken some significant action recently in front of everybody. The US is now responding with the US aircraft group- the two aircraft carriers battle groups that went through the South China Sea. The US has made it very clear that they will uphold freedom of navigation. Additionally, Secretary Pompeo just announced that we’re not looking for a second phase of the trade agreement we have with China, which is unfortunate as the new trade agreement was one of the key fabrics of the relationship between the US and China. If China is not fully committed to implementing the first phase of the agreement, which they’re not, so far, we’re going to be looking at more of what China just did over the last few days with Iran.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Advisor, ODNI
I think China will intensify relations with countries like Iran. They will do more work with Russia, as we’ve seen recently at the United Nations Security Council, regarding issues affecting North Korea and, in this case, Iran. We’re also looking at the weapons embargo that is coming up in October. That affects Iran in a significant way. The US position is that we should continue the arms embargo because Iran continues to be very aggressive in the region against Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, the IRGC, and others, and are colluding more with Russia to put a finger in our eye and be more of an irritant in the relationship.
The Cipher Brief: If the phase two trade deal is publicly taken off the table, do you worry that we’re entering a phase where we might see different kinds of saber-rattling up to and including a limited military engagement between the US and China given the pace of how things are developing right now?
Detrani: There is certainly a possibility of that in the South China Sea. The US has made it very clear that we don’t recognize China’s authority there with the freedom of navigation moves throughout the region with US naval assets, the US aircraft carrier battle groups that went through recently, and the statements of support for the Philippines in regard to the arbitration court decision.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Advisor, ODNI
The South China Sea is a definite flashpoint, but so is the Taiwan Strait. Given what we just saw happen in Hong Kong with the national security law and what we’re seeing in the South China Sea, I think we have to be very mindful of what’s going on or potentially what could go on, in the Taiwan Strait. The possibility of some sort of confrontation is real and we should not discount that at all. It is less likely, but as real as what we’ve been talking about with the South China Sea.
The Cipher Brief: When you look at the US and China, what potential do you see for the two countries to be able to navigate this uncertain future in a way that is more synergistic than where it is now?
Detrani: Both countries can manage this so that we don’t have conflict that could escalate quickly. Since 1972 when President Nixon visited China, we’ve had a very close relationship. China had a close relationship with us because we were there for China for all the Deng Xiaoping years. That’s why our investments are heavy in China. We have had a very close relationship and worked on strategic issues together. I think that element of collaboration could be resurrected.
It’s not only the leadership at the highest levels directing the respect of organizations within the government to move in that direction, it’s also permitting more of a dynamic dialogue between our respective countries to address the irritants, the South China Sea issues, the labor camps in Xinjiang, and the national security law in Hong Kong. The leadership in China has to be open to more of a working level dialogue with the United States to work on these irritants because just having them there will escalate things. I think the US has reached out and is amenable to doing that. I think we could come back and address the irritants.
On the other side, we have things to work on like pandemics, piracy of the sea, international terrorism, climate change, and proliferation. All of these things speak to the two countries coming together to say “We want to work on these things that affect mankind. There are no borders on many of these issues there. There are no boundaries.” I think this is where Xi Jinping can make a big difference if they’re serious about deescalating on things like the South China Sea and show progress on the first phase of the trade agreement in order to start moving toward the second. What the US is saying about the Hong Kong’s national security law and in Xinjiang with the labor camps shows a willingness for dialogue by the US.
This is who we are. We have our principles. We value human rights and the rule of law, so we’re invested in these regions like Hong Kong in a significant way, certainly, with allies and partners in the South China Sea. I think we can come together but there would have to be almost a sea change coming out of Beijing because of this wolf-warrior mentality of, “If you punch, we’re going to counterpunch, and we’re going to react even more strongly if there’s any resistance,” that they’re moving towards. That can escalate very quickly and get out of hand. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “Why can’t we work together?” We could, sure, but China has to start deescalating in those areas and addressing the irritants, and then we can work on some of the transnational issues that affect all mankind.
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