The Cipher Brief reached out to General Jack Keane to get his thoughts on the Syrian ceasefire agreement announced on February 12. Keane dismissed the significance of the deal, characterizing it as “total subterfuge.”
The Cipher Brief: What’s your take on the Syrian ceasefire agreement?
General Jack Keane: Unless there is something we do not know, the Syrian ceasefire is total subterfuge. The reason is the Russians have no intention of participating in a ceasefire. In fact, it’s very similar to each of the ceasefires in Ukraine where the Russians used the break in hostilities to advance their military position. I anticipate they will do much the same here. In other words, they will continue to conduct a bombing campaign where they see fit and largely around Aleppo.
TCB: What are the Russians up to? What do they want out of the deal?
JK: A key objective for the Russians is that they do not want the opposition forces that they’re fighting in Aleppo to be able to bring in additional support or to undo any gains. And those opposition forces – not all of them but some of them – are participating in the ceasefire and will not be able to do that.
This is another indication that the United States government – sadly to say – has been duped once again. It’s humiliating to watch this take place, frankly.
The peace talks initially began with the Russians only wanting to participate if the U.S. would concede that Assad does not have to go. For four years, from 2011-2015, the U.S. policy as announced by the President is that Assad must go. To get the Russians to participate in peace talks at the outset, the U.S. made a major concession that absolutely mystified all of our Sunni Arab friends in the region who agreed with the policy that Assad must go. So we have another humiliating event for the U.S. because we’ve entered into a ceasefire that the Russians have no intention of abiding by. Moreover, there is no enforcement and no international monitors to assure compliance.
TCB: Let’s say there is a ceasefire and it holds for a short period of time, how would you see a break in hostilities impacting the trajectory of the conflict? Who would it help? Who would it hurt?
JK: First of all, the Russians and the Assad regime will clearly benefit because they are not going to stop airstrikes. The main opposition force that the Assad regime and the Iranians, Hezbollah, and Quds force are fighting in the city of Aleppo is Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, which is not participating in the talks or the ceasefire. It’s hard to imagine under any condition that the security situation would be advanced as a result of this so-called ceasefire.
A major objective of the ceasefire is to provide relief to the thousands of Syrians who are wounded and starving in the besieged areas. With no international monitors, the relief agencies will need to depend on the Assad
regime to transit the battlefield and deliver aid to the Syrian victims. That support is highly unlikely.
