Strong Team Faces High Hurdles

Posted: March 30th, 2016

By Eric Trager

Eric Trager is the Esther K. Wagner Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where his research focuses on Egyptian politics and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Dr. Trager has served as an adjunct professor at the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Michigan, and the University of California, and he is the author of the book "Arab Fall: How the Muslim Brotherhood Won and Lost Egypt in 891 Days" (Georgetown University Press, October 2016).

Egypt’s latest cabinet reshuffle, which Cairo announced last Wednesday, caught many observers both within and outside Egypt by surprise. But given that four of the ten new ministers hold portfolios that are critical to economic development and investment, the reshuffle likely reflects President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s implicit recognition that Egypt’s economy is failing, and that a new set of policy eyes are required to resuscitate it.

Indeed, Egypt’s economy is in dire straits. As Prime Minister Sherif Ismail detailed in a 205-page policy statement on Sunday, Egypt’s unemployment rate has climbed from nine percent in 2009/2010 to 13.3 percent in the current fiscal year, and while its population has grown from 77 million to 90 million within the same timeframe, economic growth has slowed. Food and fuel subsidy costs nearly doubled from 2009 to 2014, and military spending has increased to address new security threats, while tourism and Suez Canal revenue have declined. Inflation has also skyrocketed: the Central Bank devalued the Egyptian pound by nearly thirteen percent earlier this month, but black market currency sales indicate that the pound is still overvalued, and prices have increased as a result.

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