But what does Soleimani’s killing signal to other US adversaries who utilize similar tactics? Is US deterrence back?
After last September’s drone attack against a Saudi oil facility that U.S. and British Intelligence concluded was orchestrated by Iran, the UN Security Council – which counts Russia as a member- found itself in an all too familiar and frustrating position.
The Cipher Brief spoke with expert Norm Roule, who served as National Intelligence Manager at ODNI before his retirement, about the lack of deterrence.
"Russia has blocked any UNSC action against Iran since the Obama administration,” Roule told The Cipher Brief. “Moscow has prevented or fatally delayed multiple investigations into Iran’s provision of weaponry, to include advanced missile and drone technology to its surrogates.”
We asked Roule, in a piece titled The Drone Attack on Oil and the Larger Iran Problem, with the US Congress and the UN Security Council offering no significant pushback following the oil facility strike (which was considered more of an asymmetric, ‘gray zone’ operation), what message did that send to Putin, Xi, and others who regularly undertake gray zone operations against the US? “The message,” said Roule, “is that gray zone military tactics can achieve important policy goals with little fear of any response from a fractured international community.” In other words, there is again, a lack of deterrence for carrying out operations that cause damage but fall below the level of armed conflict.
The Cipher Brief is taking an in-depth look at the issue of deterrence and how to measure it. In the aftermath of the strike against Qassem Soleimani, we spoke with a number of our experts about what could happen next. Specifically, we asked Admiral Jim Stavridis (Ret.) and General Phil Breedlove (Ret.), - both experts who served as NATO Supreme Allied Commanders during their careers and both deeply familiar with Iran, Russia and gray zone tactics – about the ongoing issue of deterrence.
THE EXPERTS:
Admiral Stavridis (Ret.) was the 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO and is an Operating Executive at The Carlyle Group. His is the author of several books, including Sailing True North: Ten Admirals and the Voyage of Character.
Gen. Philip M. Breedlove retired as the Commander, Supreme Allied Command, Europe and has also served as the Commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe; Commander, U.S. Air Forces Africa; Commander, Air Component Command, Ramstein; and Director, Joint Air Power Competence Centre, Kalkar, Germany.
ON DETERRENCE:
Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO
We'll know a lot more over the next two or three months in terms of how the Iranians respond to this action. I believe that they will not be significantly deterred by this. They are sincere as a nation, and as a people, had a deep admiration for General Soleimani and the people of Iran will demand a response. I don't see how the Iranian regime avoids taking a significant military response. In that sense, I don't think we've created additional deterrence by doing this. I think that if the Iranians respond as I believe they will and then the United States responds to that, as President Trump has indicated that he would, and the United States responds at a very significant level, attacking Iranian war ships at sea, destroying their port infrastructure, military ports, attacking their Army bases, taking out their Air Force. I think that next wave might create deterrence, but I'll tell you, Iranian's are a tough nut to crack in terms of deterrence.
"If the objective was to create deterrence," adds Stavridis, "I think it's unlikely in the short term. The Iranian's have a long history of fighting back, even when they are in seemingly desperate straits. Look at the Iran/Iraq war. They're very proud and they see themselves as an imperial power stretching back three millennia.
Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (Ret.), Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO
I think it's incredibly important that NATO takes a united front on this issue because, clearly Iran and some of their supporters, like Russia, would like to present division on these kinds of issues. I believe it was General Petraeus who, in the days after the strike, said this may actually have instituted or re-instituted some deterrence. This is an incredible conversation that needs to be had. We have lost deterrence in the last 11 years because we have backed away from things that are happening in the world and we have backed away from U.S. leadership on some of these issues in the world. I don't think you have to look any further than the several nations that are absolutely running amok in the gray spaces, attacking us in cyber, interfering with our elections, committing murders in Western capitals and taking U.S. sailors hostage.
"All of the things that have been happening in and around the Middle East and in Europe," adds Breedlove, "are an indication of a lack of deterrence because we have systematically for 11 years now, backed away from our leadership position in the world. We’ve all been paying the price. I believe this discussion of regaining deterrence is one that needs to be engaged. How do we deter nations in gray spaces? How do we deter nations that have demonstrated that they will take near kinetic actions like seizing American sailors on the open seas?"
Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) (Ret.), Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO
This is not good news for Russia in the sense that Russia is seeking to build a strategic condominium, if you will, that would include Iran, a reconstructed Syria, ultimately perhaps Lebanon and Iran. Russia wants the opportunity to continue to make itself a major player in the Middle East and to have good relationships with Israel and with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States so that becomes a more difficult balancing act for Vladimir Putin given that this will probably lead to more instability in the region and greater division between Iran, Israel and the Arab States. I think Putin will have a more difficult task putting the pieces together on the chessboard that he seeks. Life is full of choices both for nations and for people, and I think that Putin is going to have to make some difficult choices about whether he will support Iran fully.
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