EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — The year’s worst attack against Ukraine raises a pair of difficult questions for Ukraine and its supporters in the West.
Why wasn’t a military target more secure? And why won’t the U.S. and other countries drop restrictions on how Ukraine uses their military aid?
Two Russian missiles killed 51 people and injured more than 200 others Tuesday in the central city of Poltava. It was the deadliest attack against Ukraine this year (a July strike against Kyiv killed 41) and one of the deadliest since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than two and a half years ago.
Russia fired Iskander ballistic missiles that struck a military training facility – the Poltava Military Institute of Communications – and a nearby hospital, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said the missiles landed shortly after an air-raid alert, killing many people as they raced to a bomb shelter. The ministry called the attack “barbaric,” and said rescue crews had dug 11 people alive from the rubble and saved 14 others.
The Associated Press reported that shattered bricks were visible behind the closed gates of the institution, pools of blood could be seen just outside, and glass shards littered nearby roads.
“People found themselves under the rubble. Many were saved,” Zelensky said in a video posted on his Telegram channel. “My condolences to all the families and friends.”
Zelensky’s condolences came with comments that hinted at what may be the key consequences of Tuesday's attacks: newly invigorated calls for the West do more to help Ukraine fight back; and an order for - as Zelensky put it - “a full and prompt investigation” into what happened at Poltava.
For Ukraine, a double tragedy
Beyond the high casualty toll, the carnage at Poltava was a calamity for Zelensky and his country because it struck at a population Ukraine can ill afford to lose: warriors in training.
Ukrainian news outlets reported that many of the dead were cadets at the Poltava academy who had gathered for an event. One former MP, Borislav Bereza, told the BBC that cadets were in classes when the missiles struck.
The AP reported that the Poltava institute trains officers in communications and electronics, as well as drone operators, who now rank among the most important members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Russia and Ukraine are both in dire need of more troops. But while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stranglehold on media and public speech means he can weather large-scale call-ups of soldiers, Zelensky faces political hurdles in his hunt for more troops. Earlier this year his government lowered the conscription age to 25 from 27, a modest move that was deeply controversial in Ukraine.
Given all these issues, there will be questions about why the Poltava cadets were not better protected. Russia has targeted gatherings of Ukrainian service members before; last fall, 19 soldiers were killed at a medal ceremony for artillery troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, and earlier in the war, in March 2022, Russian attacks struck a barracks near the Polish border and a marine brigade in the south.
Presumably, Zelensky’s call for an investigation is aimed at learning how a large population of soldiers was once again vulnerable, far from any front line. And why the air-raid warnings in Poltava gave people too little time to reach shelter.
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Kyiv’s message to the West: Stop tying our hands
Zelensky’s other message Tuesday was a familiar one, aimed squarely at the West: Help us win this war.
“We keep telling everyone in the world who has the power to stop this terror: air defense systems and missiles are needed in Ukraine, not in a warehouse somewhere,” the Ukrainian leader said in a video message on Telegram.
“Long-range strikes that can protect us from Russian terror are needed now, not some time later,” he added. “Unfortunately, every day of delay means loss of life.”
Ukrainian officials and their supporters have argued for more than two years that the western response to Russia’s aggression should be more robust and proactive. The key asks of the moment are for better air defense, long-range missiles to strike Russian targets, and permission to strike more deeply into Russian territory.
The carnage at Poltava brought similar calls from outside Ukraine.
Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkevics was blunt. “One more time: restrictions imposed on Ukraine to use all weapons against Russia must be lifted. This is not about escalation, this is about the survival of innocent people.”
Former CIA Director and top U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus told The Cipher Brief that in response to the Poltava strike, “the U.S. should lift all remaining restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons and munitions on Russian territory.”
And former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul wrote on X that “the only proper response from the West to this appalling killing is to lift all restrictions currently constraining Ukraine from defending itself.”
The reluctance of the U.S. and some of its allies to allow a no-holds-barred use of their weapons has to do with fears of provoking a NATO-Russia war – a concern that more and more experts say is overblown, given Putin’s own survival instincts. In this view, the Russian leader won’t start a war that he knows would mean a massive NATO response against his country.
In the specific case of the Poltava attack, easing the restrictions would have had no effect; the Ukrainian military said that the Iskander missiles had been launched from Crimea, which is occupied by Russian forces and therefore under no such targeting restrictions from the West.
But for those making the argument - and it was made by scores of top officials and experts Tuesday - the point was that in a gloves-off war, Ukraine is being forced to keep at least one glove on.
The Western restraints on use of their long-range weapon systems were a focus of last week’s Globsec24 security forum in Prague, and on the eve of the Poltava attack, Zelensky had made the case to a prominent European visitor.
After meeting Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof in Zaporizhzhia Monday, Zelensky stressed the importance of gaining approval for strikes deep into Russia and enhancing Ukraine’s air defenses. Less than 24 hours later, the missiles rained down on Poltava.
Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told The Cipher Brief Tuesday that lifting the restrictions was one way of creating conditions that would make Putin “realize that he is never actually going to defeat Ukraine. These kind of half measures and too slow measures are just never going to be enough.”
Volker also suggested that NATO provide extended air defense for its own territory.
“Russian missiles and drones have gone into Polish airspace repeatedly, and into Romanian airspace," Volker said. "Debris has fallen on those countries. Two Poles have been killed because of falling debris, so it would be perfectly reasonable for Poland and Romania to seek Ukraine's permission to be able to declare an extended air defense zone over Ukrainian airspace to protect their own populations. And that would be a creative and legitimate way to push the Russians back a little bit.”
Volker’s remarks echo calls from Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who said that Poland and Ukraine’s other neighbors have a “duty” to intercept Russian missiles before they enter their airspace. Sikorski said downing these missiles “would be legitimate self-defense” given the risk of falling debris. Sikorski’s comments remain controversial among other NATO members who fear a widening of the war.
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What comes next?
High-casualty strikes in Ukraine have brought widespread condemnation before – and in some cases they have led to changes in policy. In 2022, the Russian Army’s massacres at Bucha, its siege of Mariupol and the attack on a train station at Kramatorsk all led to increased western aid and ultimately to an international warrant for Vladimir Putin on charges of war crimes.
Poltava Governor Filip Pronin had that latter charge on his mind when he announced three days of mourning, starting Wednesday.
“A great tragedy for Poltava region and entire Ukraine,” Pronin wrote on his Telegram page Tuesday. “The enemy certainly must answer for all (its) crimes against humanity.”
The man at the top of the war-crimes charge sheet in Ukraine was far from the Kremlin when the missiles struck Poltava. Vladimir Putin was visiting Mongolia Tuesday, where he participated in a ceremony to mark the 85th anniversary of a joint Soviet-Mongolian victory over Japanese forces.
Among other things, the visit meant that Mongolia became the latest nation to ignore the international court’s warrant, and its demand that Putin be arrested on charges of war crimes.
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