According to Dr. Jamal Al Shalabi, Professor of Political Science at the Hashemite University, turmoil in the Middle East has prompted Jordan to strengthen cooperation with its neighbors. Egypt-Jordan relations are at an all time high, Al Shalabi told The Cipher Brief, and it is “logical” for Jordan to deepen security ties with Israel.
The Cipher Brief: Since the emergence of ISIS, how have Jordan and Egypt cooperated to combat the threat of the terrorist group in Syria and the Sinai? Has there been an increase in military sales, intelligence sharing, defense cooperation, etc.?
Jamal Al Shalabi: It is clear that Jordanian-Egyptian relations are at the highest levels of cooperation and coordination, particularly after the June 2013 revolution in which Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi became Egypt’s president. Jordanian King Abdullah II was the first foreign leader to visit President Sisi in Egypt, three weeks after Sisi’s accession to power. This visit promoted legitimacy for Sisi, both in the Arab world and the international community.
Relations between the two states have developed in all fields, including confronting the “common enemy.” This common enemy does not just refer to ISIS, which represents the highest levels of religious and terrorist extremism, but also to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is considered the “legitimate mother,” both intellectually and behaviorally, of all the extremist jihadi factions that emerged in the twentieth century.
It would appear that Jordanian interests in security coordination with Egypt are certain and legitimate. ISIS has repeatedly aimed to destroy the natural gas pipelines from Egypt to Israel and Jordan. Moreover, the northern Jordanian borders could be one of the open gateways for the movement of ISIS elements from Egypt to Syria, despite strong Jordanian surveillance of these borders.
Egypt has been building its military strength by buying an estimated $4.9 billion worth of arms from Russia and by purchasing the French submarine Mistral from France. These purchases reflect the “desire of Cairo” to cooperate with Jordan in confronting the common enemy, ISIS, which presently has an “emirate” in Sinai and affiliates located in the Arab East all the way through to the Maghreb. Jordan is confronting ISIS on its northern and eastern borders, and Egypt through its western borders with Libya, where the activities of extremist terrorist organizations are on the rise. These groups threaten Egypt as well as the entire African continent.
TCB: How has Jordan cooperated with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries to combat the threats posed by ISIS and Iran?
JS: Jordan continually tries to coordinate its political and security movement with the Arab Gulf states which host no less than 79.5 percent of the Jordanian expatriates abroad who number two million and whose remittances in 2014, for example, amounted to around $4 billion (2.388 billion Dinars).
Notwithstanding the cautious Jordanian strategy vis-a-vis the crisis of its northern neighbor Syria, there is apparently intense Jordanian-Gulf cooperation in confronting ISIS, particularly in the aftermath of the burning of the Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh in February 2015.
There is also an uncertain economic situation in Jordan. The unemployment rate has reached around 15 percent according to official figures, while other reports indicate that the figure is closer to 30 percent, comprised mostly of youth. There are also more than 4 million refugees from neighboring countries living in Jordan. In essence, Jordan is dependent on the Gulf States that provide economic assistance to help Jordan in the battle against ISIS.
ISIS’s confidence increased when it was able to expand in Iraq and Syria, and there is a foothold for “the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigades” affiliated with ISIS in the Der`ah governorate on the north Jordan border, which is something that causes great concern to Israel, The official announcement of Jordan that its armed forces killed 14 terrorist elements on the northern border at the outset of 2016 is proof that this organization is trying to infiltrate Jordanian territories and to destabilize Jordan. Moreover, the trial of five Syrian refugees affiliated with ISIS and their attempt to kill members of the Jordanian Army is confirmation of the words of King Abdullah II in an interview with BBC earlier this month in which he said the “refugee issue is of great security and national implications.”
Regarding the Jordanian position towards Iran, it was Jordan that alerted the world to the rise of Iran in the region when King Abdullah II referred in October 2004 to the danger of the “Shia crescent.” Hence, Jordan partook, for security and economic reasons, in an unofficial manner in quelling the demonstrations in Bahrain in 2011—demonstrations that Iran is accused of abetting and supporting. Moreover, Jordan became a part of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia that has been confronting the Houthis in Yemen under the slogan of “Storm of Determination” since March 2015.
Even so, Jordan has not severed its relations with Iran as the Gulf States did (with the exception of Oman) in protest of the torching of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in January 2016. All Jordan did was summon the Iranian ambassador, Hujjati Firdawsi, in Amman and hand him a message of condemnation and protest.
It would be possible to explain this position in two ways. First, the nature of Jordanian foreign relations and diplomacy is based on balance, particularly as the restoration of Iran’s legitimacy on the international stage may open a new economic horizon for Jordan. Second, Jordan perceives the possibility of playing the role of “mediator” between the Arab states and Iran in case the latter discards the idea of “exporting the revolution.”
TCB: Is Jordan looking to expand cooperation with other countries in the region in the fight against ISIS such as Turkey and Israel?
JS: Yes, certainly. Jordan cannot solely face ISIS. The terrorist group must be combatted through regional and international solidarity, not just at the political level but also at the military and security levels. Turkey and Israel are among the states that Jordan could cooperate with to overcome ISIS or at least to limit its strength and influence in the region. Traditionally, Jordan has maintained high-level political relations with Turkey and Israel, and there have been convergences with them concerning many regional issues. This means that there is a desire on the part of these parties to have the highest possible level of coordination in the security field.
Having said that, it appears that it would be difficult to conceive of complete and continual cooperation in the security field between Jordan and Turkey as it relates to facing ISIS. The Jordanian leadership realizes that Turkey, along with its Qatari and Saudi friends, have helped facilitate the growing influence of ISIS. This assumption was substantiated by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon during his visit to Greece in January when Ya’alon accused Turkey, publicly and directly, of helping terrorism. Hence, it is logical for Jordan to deepen security and political cooperation to fight ISIS with Israel more than with any other state in the region; this, on a foundation of security cooperation emanating from the peace treaty signed between them in 1994.
Finally, it is likely that there is security cooperation, even if “clandestine,” between the Jordanian government and the regime in Syria, despite political differences between them. When there is a common enemy, enemies can become friends!
TCB: Do you see the current regional turmoil as an opportunity for countries in the region to improve relations with one another?
JS: Five years after the Syrian crisis erupted in March 2011, it appears that the region is witnessing a state of self-destruction and fatal turbulence that has fostered the downfall of states and regimes. This reality is coupled with the emergence of terrorist extremist organizations such as ISIS, which not only threaten the Middle East, but also the world in its entirety through atrocities, such as the kidnapping of school students; the murder of children in Nigeria and Mali; the bombing of theaters, cinemas, and restaurants in Paris; and explosions in mosques in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.
Hence, I think that that the Middle East region is in need of a truce that is prolonged and profound. Issues that need to be addressed include the concepts of war and peace, tolerance and extremism, and dialogue and diplomacy instead of killing and destruction. Is the killing of approximately half a million Syrians and the displacement of nine million people not enough? Is the destruction of the infrastructure of all the countries of the region, which have suffered from the so-called “Arab Spring” not enough?
All of these questions require powers endowed with wisdom to understand the harm that has befallen the region and to explore effectuating common action to build the future of coming generations on the basis of freedom, dignity, and humanity.
