All this week, we will be breaking down global geography to bring you a closer look at the trends and what they mean. Today, we bring you the Trendline Report on The Middle East and North Africa.
The Middle East and North Africa
Protests and violence trended in the Middle East and North Africa last quarter. Iraq and Lebanon experienced vast citizen demonstrations. Iraqi protests have occurred over the controversial Iranian-backed paramilitaries. The United States’ raid on Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi led to increased rocket attacks in Iraq, which targeted areas where U.S. soldiers and diplomats were stationed. In Israel, strikes from the Gaza strip increased since the death of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) senior commander, Baha Abu Al Ata. Protests broke out in Lebanon calling for political and economic reforms following government plans to charge a fee for WhatsApp. Despite the resignation and replacement of multiple officials, demonstrators continue to gather in opposition against the Lebanese government and of course, the killing of Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani set the US – Iranian relationship on a whole new path.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, to include IC engagement on Iran issues with senior policy makers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
"From North Africa to Iran, the region continued to experience widespread protests driven by deep dissatisfaction over corruption, sectarianism, and failed governance. Governments dealing with the unrest appear generally unwilling to make the broad changes which would satisfy protestors, in part because the unrest has yet to seriously threaten established power centers. Continued unrest remains highly likely with a likelihood for increased violence, especially in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran. The threat against the U.S. presence in Iraq remains high," said Roule.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"Iran remains the single most disruptive regional actor although its most significant on-the-ground operations in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen receive little media coverage. US forces in Iraq came under increased mortar and rocket fire. Iran continued to seek sanctions relief using increasingly bellicose rhetoric and actions aimed at pressuring the international community to offer sanctions relief. Tehran and its proxies continue to claim a desire to punish the United States over the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militant Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis, particularly as part of a campaign which aims to curtail the U.S. presence in Iraq."
"The United States’ raid which ended in the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi inflicted a significant blow against ISIS but appears to have had only a limited impact on ISIS operations. In Israel, strikes from the Gaza strip have increased since the death of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) senior commander, Baha Abu Al Ata," said Roule.
OSINT Global Reporting
Iraq: Attacks Against Bases with U.S. Soldiers Rise
- October 26: A U.S. military raid in Syria killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. An Islamic State spokesman warned the United States to “beware vengeance [against] their nation and their brethren of infidels and apostates.” CNN Reuters
- November 8: The Qayyarah West Airfield base in Iraq was attacked with 31 rockets. The base contained U.S. soldiers, although no injuries were reported. NPR
- December 3: The al-Asad base in the Western Anbar province was attacked with 122-mm rockets. “That’s a bit different than one or two rockets that are harassing fire.” said a U.S. military official, referring to rockets regularly launched into Baghdad’s Green Zone, where the American Embassy is located. NPR
- December 9: Rockets were fired near a State Department-run security compound in Iraq. At least five Iraqi counterterrorism forces were wounded. A U.S. senior military official said, “I think that attack is a part of a broader trend that is attacking the U.S. and coalition presence in Iraq, as opposed to the episodic harassing fire that we’ve become used to.” NPR
- December 12: Rockets struck Baghdad’s international airport compound, but there were no casualties reported. U.S. officials commented the attacks have escalated both in frequency and potential lethality. NPR
- December 16:S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper expressed his “concern about the optics in attacks on bases in Iraq where U.S. troops and material might be” in a call with ongoing Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. Al Jazeera
- January 3: The U.S. targeting and killing of Iranian Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani by a drone strike in Baghdad prompted a series of seemingly escalatory statements and actions throughout the Middle East. The Cipher Brief
Israel: Escalated Attacks Following the Death of Baha Abu al-Ata
- November 5: Israeli forces launched dual assassination attempts on Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leadership in both Palestine and Syria. BBC
- November 12: Israeli forces killed Baha Abu al-Ata in targeted strikes. A subsequent Israeli attack killed two Palestinian citizens and injured ten in a strike against another PIJ leader. BBC
- November 12-13: Pro-Palestinian forces fired nearly 400 rockets toward Israel from the Gaza strip. Hamas said Israel bore “full responsibility for the consequences of this escalation” and warned that the killings would “not pass without punishment. BBC
- November 14: An unofficial ceasefire was agreed upon with Egypt serving as a mediator. Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that “quiet will be answered with quiet.” Al Jazeera BBC
- November 15: Israel resumed strikes on targets linked to the Islamic Jihad militant group in Gaza after members of the PIJ fired rockets into Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett warned Gaza militants “A terrorist who tries to harm Israeli citizens will not be able to sleep soundly, not in his home and not in his bed and not in any hiding place.” Associated Press
- December 19: PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al-Nakhalad stated his organization will join forces in the next round of fighting between Israel and Hamas. Jerusalem Post
Lebanon: Anti-Government Protests Persist throughout First Quarter
- October 20: Demonstrators indicated economic reforms will not be enough to dismantle the protests. “[The politicians] are not giving us anything, they took everything, and we don't have anything here. Since 2005 they have been promising us, but then nothing happened,” a protestor in Beirut said. Al Jazeera Financial Times
- November 17: A consensus by multiple political parties to nominate former Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi as the new prime minister was met with protests, leading him to withdraw his candidacy. Al Jazeera The New York Times
- December 20: Former Education Minister Hassan Diab was tasked by Lebanese President Michel Aoun with forming Lebanon’s new government. The appointment of Diab failed to quell protests as hundreds of civilians gathered in Tripoli and Beirut to oppose his appointment. Al Jazeera The Guardian
The Cipher Brief’s OSINT Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI.
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